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A new H2H factor?

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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Mar 09, 2006 3:18 pm

i dont really worry too much about month to month consistency. it would be nice to have but you arent going to have it across your entire roster no matter how carefully you draft so there isnt much point in worrying about it.
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Postby bigh0rt » Thu Mar 09, 2006 3:39 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:i dont really worry too much about month to month consistency. it would be nice to have but you arent going to have it across your entire roster no matter how carefully you draft so there isnt much point in worrying about it.


That's basically how I feel, too, because as streaky as a player may be, there's just no telling if he'll be on an upswing or a downswing during the fantasy playoffs. It's the nature of the beast that is H2H unfortunately. Only time I consider it a knock against a player is when I value 2 guys equally, and one has a drastic history of being all or nothing.
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Postby WittyC » Thu Mar 09, 2006 5:13 pm

Some key points that I think were overlooked here...

1) As far as I can tell, SB's are the most volitile category from week to week. This is just based on observations, mind you, I don't have the data to back it up. The logic stems from the fact that SB's rely as much on the catcher in the battery as on the guy stealing the bases. This perception devalues guys whose value is almost entirely based on steals (Crawford, Pierre, Reyes, Figgins, etc.). I'd much rather hedge my bets with four or five guys who will steal 10-20.

BTW, Rotoworld does a great job of looking at catcher matchups for steals guys every week. I find that platooning bag-swipers at my third OF position is a great strategy.

2) If you draft with blatent disregard to consistency, on average, it will work itself out. Basically, the odds of your whole team going cold or going hot in one particular week are slim. More likely you'll have a few guys up and a few guys down, and everything will balance itself out.

Those things being said, I still agree that consistency can give a guy's value a slight boost in H2H. However, I don't see it as a huge factor, and as others have said in this thread, it might just give one guy an edge if he was a push with someone else.
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Postby 4Pack » Thu Mar 09, 2006 7:19 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:i dont really worry too much about month to month consistency. it would be nice to have but you arent going to have it across your entire roster no matter how carefully you draft so there isnt much point in worrying about it.


I can't really say that I worry about it either. It is not as if I study the consistency factor in each player that I draft. However...if my past experiences with a player tell me that he is inconsistent...I will avoid drafting him (or draft him and then trade him).

We all know that most every player has ups and downs throughout the season.....but those players that have 1 week up and 2-3 weeks down consistently can and will hurt you in H2H leagues.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 09, 2006 7:25 pm

When I've gotten psycho in the past and looked at game logs, box scores, etc. a lot of times a rough month = something like an AL West road trip for hitters or visiting Boston or St. Louis for SP and stuff like that, rather than '[insert player] doesn't do well in May'. Still, I think that righty lefty stuff and park matchups are valid considerations.

I think somewhere there's studies that have disproven 1st half/ 2nd half 'splits' have much validity and end up kind of being luck of the draw. Like Derek Lee, until last year, he started consistently slow for several years in a row...hee hee..
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