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A new H2H factor?

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A new H2H factor?

Postby The Destroyer » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:49 am

So lets say your looking at 2 players of about equal ability. You start comparing team support, ball park etc. but i was thinking, what about in-season consistancy. By in-season i mean on a week to week basis who is reliable and hits the solid line. In roto it doesnt really matter if you have a consistant or inconsistant guy, its all about the stats at the end of the season, but in H2H i think it would be better to have a consistant player that you can rely on rather than one that goes on streaks. Yea the streaks can really help you, but winning HR by 5 and winning it by 1 is still the same. What do you guys think? Any importance to in-season consistancy in H2H or is this just a dumb idea.
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Postby bigh0rt » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:54 am

This is nothing new.

It's also nothing that I'd take that much account into. Considering the playoffs are the big picture in H2H, and once you're there anything can happen, there's just no way you can predict if a player like Jeter or Andruw Jones is going to be on an upswing or a downswing during the last few weeks of the season (other than analyzing what they generally do during that part of the season, but that's certainly not enough to sell me on them). Generally, if I'm given the choice of 2 players I view as nearly equal, I'll take the one I expect to be more consistant.

So, to answer the question; no it's not a dumb idea at all. The fact that you came up with the hypothesis on your own without reading it elsewhere states that you're a proactive thinker that's trying to gain an edge and stay ahead of the game. That's a good sign. Keep the thinktank fully operational, and you may find there's more slight divergencies from roto to H2H that make the two games different and enjoyable in each of their own rights.
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Postby dsspence3 » Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:58 am

Well I think most everyone's approach is gauging a player from his season to season's consistency. Some players are streaky but still hit 30 homers every year, maybe more so with low average home run guys. Now maybe if you came up with a strategy to try to channel players hot streaks, say pre all star break and post all star break, road games and home games, or just by exchanging players from the waiver wire that is smart managing. But really I don't think it's a factor because it isn't standalone, and really plays into the general caliber of the player and general decision making.

hope that makes sense, i could be wrong, but i just hope someone can decipher my thoughts in the first place. :-)
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 09, 2006 1:09 am

Consistency IS valuable but, OTOH, you can also platoon a guy who's predictably inconsistent, eg Blalock vs. lefties or whatever, and come out ahead, as value/ draft position will generally largely depend on 'totals'. If you are crafty, you can 'buy' (or draft...) a .270 hitter but get a .290 or .300 hitter by picking matchups to take advantage of a 'predictable' split like that.
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Postby The Destroyer » Thu Mar 09, 2006 3:09 am

Well an example i find is Pujols vs Alex Rodriguez, its pretty much 50/50 in terms of who the population picks at #1. But Pujols last year in month by month was more consistantly hitting the line compare to A-Rod that for example flucuated from 3 HR in one month to 12 in another. Pujols was between 5 and 8. So if my hypothesis was true, Pujols may be the better H2H player.

This is mainly for your top tier players, do you really want to rely on a guy like Hafner who flucuated from 1 HR to 11 HR monthly? I'm sure that 11 HR month is greatly appreciated but do you really want one of your top 3 round picks to be that streaky?
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Postby bigh0rt » Thu Mar 09, 2006 3:24 am

The Destroyer wrote:Well an example i find is Pujols vs Alex Rodriguez, its pretty much 50/50 in terms of who the population picks at #1. But Pujols last year in month by month was more consistantly hitting the line compare to A-Rod that for example flucuated from 3 HR in one month to 12 in another. Pujols was between 5 and 8. So if my hypothesis was true, Pujols may be the better H2H player.

This is mainly for your top tier players, do you really want to rely on a guy like Hafner who flucuated from 1 HR to 11 HR monthly? I'm sure that 11 HR month is greatly appreciated but do you really want one of your top 3 round picks to be that streaky?


It's a nice analysis, but I'd look far deeper than monthly splits of one season before I'm writing players off. The players like Andruw Jones who have shown that every year they go through massive hot and cold streaks only for the numbers to add up in the end are the ones who should be deducted points, for the most part. As I said earlier, I don't see this as a major, major factor, but it's certainly not one to be ignored.

And to answer the question, yes, I would want Hafner in H2H. If you look at just his splits from last season, you'll see that other than his power drought in April and surge in September, he was pretty consistant throughout. In June through August he was raking for great average and had a very slow May. Not nearly enough for me to let this hamper where I want to take him on draft day.
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Postby 4Pack » Thu Mar 09, 2006 8:48 am

Inconsistency from players in H2H leagues will drive a manager nuts. Trust me...I go through it every season. I have vowed to never again draft quite a few players for that very reason (and I have a couple "stud" players on my banned list).

While the year end numbers of some of these players make fantasy managers drool...as was stated...year end numbers matter more in roto than H2H. I would take a 25 HR 90 RBI guy who is failry consistent over a 35 HR 110 RBI guy who does squat 3 out of 4 weeks.

Problem with all this...it is hard to identify these players without alot of research.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 09, 2006 8:55 am

4Pack wrote:Inconsistency from players in H2H leagues will drive a manager nuts. Trust me...I go through it every season. I have vowed to never again draft quite a few players for that very reason (and I have a couple "stud" players on my banned list).

While the year end numbers of some of these players make fantasy managers drool...as was stated...year end numbers matter more in roto than H2H. I would take a 25 HR 90 RBI guy who is failry consistent over a 35 HR 110 RBI guy who does squat 3 out of 4 weeks.

Problem with all this...it is hard to identify these players without alot of research.


Righty/ Lefty splits are pretty easy to come up with. Baseball Forecaster has them for every player they rate. I brought it along to the draft, I only looked at it a couple of times but you never know.

I first got a bit concerned about this in 2003, I got killed by Nomar and Manny's west coast road trip going into the fantasy playoffs. Both had horrid away splits or at least tanked on that particular road trip. :~(

I didn't actually worry about this stuff this year but you could...
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Thu Mar 09, 2006 11:43 am

I think consistency is a bonus in H2H, key word bonus. If you are choosing between equal guys, go with the consistent guy. To me, the strategy that is yielded from the idea of consistency/inconsistency is actually flexibility.

In H2H, some guys are gonna have poor weeks, when they do you have to ride them out. But if you have flexibility across your roster, you can shift the slumping guys out. This will also help keep your bench down to only 2 guys or so to gaurd against injuries (instead of having a backup/bench slot for each position). Then if you have a guy who is slumping, you have the OPTION of moving him out and replacing them with a guy on your bench or the guy on the hot streak from the WW.

Basically, if you keep your roster flexible you can account for inconsistency and even cash in on the hot guys in a H2H league. Keep in mind if you have a tight cap on max transactions this isn't as conducive but still helps.

Of course the flip side is that if you have a consistent roster you wouldn't need as much flexibility. But it isn't easy building a full roster of consistent guys. And more importantly, injuries can hit inconsistent guys as much as the consistent guys, in which case flexibility helps.
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Postby Goat Punishment » Thu Mar 09, 2006 2:32 pm

Another good example here is Torii Hunter and his SB's. He had 20-something last year, but about half of them came in the first 1.5 weeks of the season.
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