Everyone seems to have their own source for projections that they like to use, it seems like there is a daily thread on this site of where is the best site or rag to get them.
Me, I am not big on projections. I have my own sources, but I tend to focus on Player Values based on league format. I am as good as anyone when it comes to evaluating a set of statistics. If this was all there was to fantasy baseball, I might just be unbeatable.
It's not. I just did three 15 team drafts in the last 10 days with my partner and I have got to say, I have so much to learn. A dude over at creativesports just wrote a nice peace on this if anyone wants to take a look.
You can't just go on projections. You have to look at who's been drafted, is there a run going on, is it the end of the run, beginning of the run? How much is positional Scarcity is worth to you? It's worth a lot more to some of us than others. Victor Martinez is taken in many leagues in the 3rd. I've seen many leagues where guys like Travis Hafner, Todd Helton, Paul Konerko, Carlos Lee, Ben Sheets, Carlos Zambrano, etc are drafted behind him, That in my opinion is a bad idea. Some people overvalue closers. But you could go into a start of a season without any closers and pick up enough guys as the season progresses to do well in the category.
As far as projections go I was reading an article with a few sabermetric guys, one was Tangotiger I believe where it was said the average fan, which is most of us, can make a set of projections that are approximately 65% accurate. The best paysites some of us subscribe to are approximately 70% accurate. And they said the best guys who do this for major league teams are about 75% accurate at best. That's still a lot of room for error.
Pitchers are notoriously harder to project for than hitters. Its nearly impossible year to year to get good middle relievers who are the same you drafted last season. In one league last year trying to take pitching early I ended up with Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, and Jason Schmidt. Think back to what was projected last year, esp for jason Schmidt. Yes, Johan was his stellar self. Sheets and Schmidt ended up hurt and Schmidt in particualr pitched poorly all year. Some guys took Eric Gagne as early as the 2nd round, Keith Foulke was generally the second highest closer drafted. In another league I drafted Gagne and Foulke thinking I had saves locked up. Didn't work out too well. I find that you are much better off going with hitting early with maybe grabbing a no 1 starter and a closer in the first 7 or 8 rounds.
It all takes time, try many leagues, draft many different ways. People will swear that their way is the best, and it might be for them. As long as you are confident in what you're doing you should do well.
Just wondering, how doid you value your players in that experiment?
Also, what is your main draft strategy. Just wondering, becasue you seem like a very very very saavy owner. This year my draft strategy was: Snake draft Fantasy baseball is different from other fantasy sports, in that your strategy may easily change during a draft due to a player slipping past where he is supposed to etc. Here are a few tips.
1: Use a furmula for ranking players. I use vorp (where you subtract a player stats in each position from the average at that position) This does not give you an overall number but by comparing players vorp numbers you can compare certain players and by using logic figure out wich one is better. This is only the first step of ranking players.
2:This is based off an article from Baseballnotebook.com Now you have a ranking sheet with a top 100 players. Some players may be ranked realy high on your draft sheet, but realy low on others. THIS IS GOOD. Mark off your players by each round. Assuming you are in a 12 team leaque, you would put a line under the every twelve players. Now go to a major fantasy website. Look at the average draft position tool. Go through each round of the A.D.P and cross off the players from your list that are selected. Stop every round ( every twelve players) The players that were not selected by the A.D.P but should have been according to your ranking list recieve a star next to their name. The players that have the most stars next to their names are your target players.
Look at these players adp, and write down the pick number five picks before the actual A.D.P. Basicaly figure out where you need to draft the player so that you get him, but you don't draft him befor you need to.
3: It is draft day, you have your draft sheets, and target players. Sweat is dripping down your forehead. You are afraid that you are going to mess up a team wich you must live with for the next few months. Here are my tips. Draft for balance. Show up with the stats of what it takes to win a leaque. Once you draft a player subtract their total from your target totals. Also try to draft 5 hitters a sp, and a rp in whatever order (preferably hitters first) in the first seven rounds. After that fill you positional needs and maintain a 2/1 hitter pitcher ratio. Basicaly draft the best player available that will not be their with your next pick.
I was wondering how to implment some of the thoughts in the article into these ranknings? thanks
I rank my top 4 or 5 rounds in order and then just have depth charts at each position broken down into tiers and draft off of that. Seems to work fine for me. I keep an eye towards stat balance but I'm generally good at getting people to trade with me so I don't overly worry about it in general.
Last edited by Ender on Wed Mar 08, 2006 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
i typically try to connect with marty mcfly before my draft. my first couple years, we had trouble getting everything calibrated, but we've got it down, now. i'll tell you what, it's so much easier to win when you know what's going to happen. thank god for the future, and thank doc and marty for easy access.
olympia0731 wrote:Just wondering, how doid you value your players in that experiment? Also, what is your main draft strategy. Just wondering, becasue you seem like a very very very saavy owner. This year my draft strategy was: Snake draft Fantasy baseball is different from other fantasy sports, in that your strategy may easily change during a draft due to a player slipping past where he is supposed to etc. Here are a few tips. . . . I was wondering how to implment some of the thoughts in the article into these ranknings? thanks
I was not involved in this at all. My partner submitted the winning team, but that was all him.
My point was that more goes into success than projections. Far too many people spend all their time trying to find the next great prospect. You find 10 times as many questions about prospects as you do regular vets, who may have fallen off a bit and are due to return to normal productive levels, on the cafe.
On valuation, I have been looking at vorp and even added it to our calculators due to demand, but I am not sure about it. Catchers get way overvalued. It's not like football where you start only 2 RBs and most of the other positions are a step down from what they produce except for QB where you start 1 anyway. In standard 5x5 I am starting 14 hitters, 2 of which are Cs. If you look at the best catcher last year in V.Mart, his numbers would be worse than possibly ALL other hitters on my roster.