Heard that story for years wrt Beltre...and NJ...and Griffey. Beltre has had one good year. All his others blow. NJ has never stayed healthy...Griffey finally managed to stay reasonably healthy for the first time in years in 2005. Guess what, sometimes these guys go to the mid to late rounds for a reason. And my experience is that most of the time it is justified.
And frankly, unless there is a consensus of the player being injured/washed-up, it generally does not hold that top guys drop too much for one hideous season. Sometimes yes, but generally not.
Beltran was AWFUL last year and he is going top 3 or 4 rounds still. Another year like 2005 and he falls to round 17, but he has not dropped anywhere near what you might expect.
Tejada, despite a minor off year remains a consensus round 1-2 pick.
RJ, despite age concerns, injury concerns and a gopher ball filled 2005 season that saw his ERA balloon, remains a top 5 round pick.
Prior, despite repeated injuries is still in the top 4 rounds.
The guys that fall like bricks are the guys that did not have a track record of doing it for more than 1 or 2 years. Hence Beltre falling like a brick.
Or to a lesser extent Rolen and Edmonds who people now consider injury risks. Still they are going top 10 rounds in most leagues. These are the guys you are mor elikely to get some bang for he buck for if you buy at the right time. Proven vets that you know can produce if they are healthy knowingthey had one injury season, not repeated ones.
No reason to put Figgins on this list with his 2B eligibility. You would have to have a rock in your skull to pencil him in as your 3B.
Beltre is still a good risk/reward guy, but I'm not going to get excited about what he did today in the WBC. Right now, the WBC is nothing more than spring training in terms of evaluating players -- in other words, it's meaningless.
WittyC wrote:No reason to put Figgins on this list with his 2B eligibility. You would have to have a rock in your skull to pencil him in as your 3B.
There are viable situations where Figgins makes for a good 3B. He did provide more value than any 3B not named ARod. 6 second base eligible players provided more value than Chavez, 8 more than Chipper, 9 more than Blalock. I guess I have a rock in my head. What do you have, rocks for eyes?
Hi! Welcome to the wonderful world of fantasy baseball. Today's lesson: position scarcity.
Third base traditionally offers better offensive numbers than second base when comparing fantasy players (approximately +100 HR, +200 RBI and -100 SB when comparing top 12 3B and 2B from 2005). Therefore, because most leagues require you to start a 2B, a player with less absolute value at 2B will have more relative value than a player with equal stats at 3B. This phenomenon is known as position scarcity. It's a concept you should attempt to master if you plan to play fantasy baseball this year!
Position scarcity makes our friend Chone Figgins more valuable as a second baseman than as a third baseman. Drafting him to play third base would, therefore, make him lose some of that precious value he has as a second baseman.
I cannot imagine a world where I take Beltre ahead of Blalock. Both had off years last year but Blalock is younger with a more proven track record, in a better lineup and in a better hitters park. It just makes no sense at all to me.
Made a few changes to Witty's list, but I think this is about right. People have been undervalueing Chipper a lot this year. He had something like 13 homers in his last 134 ABs to close last season. The boy can still hit, and he'll put up decent numbers even if he misses some time.
Also, Rolen's still a bit overrated from his 2004 season. He'll return to being a .280 hitter with 25-30 HRs this season. (Well, that's his upside, anyways.)
WittyC wrote:Beltre is still a good risk/reward guy, but I'm not going to get excited about what he did today in the WBC. Right now, the WBC is nothing more than spring training in terms of evaluating players -- in other words, it's meaningless.
I agree with the first bit, but not necessarily the second. People were able to see both Pat Burrell and Andruw Jones start hitting in ST last year, and if Beltre is waiting for pitches better, perhaps its a sign of him returning to old form.
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"
"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Miguel Cabrera, Fla
David Wright, NYM
Chone Figgins, Ana
Aramis Ramirez, ChC
Chipper Jones, Atl
Morgan Ensberg, Hou
Eric Chavez, Oak
Troy Glaus, Tor
Scott Rolen, StL
Hank Blalock, Tex
Melvin Mora, Bal
Adrian Beltre, Sea
EDIT: if/when Tracy and Huff qualify, I would rank them ahead of Beltre also
Last edited by Yoda on Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
First off I believe major leagers know belt well enough to not give him fast balls inside. I am not sold on one day. I am a dodger fan and know what beltre is all about. Chipper on the other hand is a great hitter, if only he could stay healthy.....