PECOTA

[beatlehead84]

Does anybody use the PECOTA forecasts for fantasy purposes? I understand how Pecota works but they project low on a lot of things expecially homeruns. For example, they have Victor Martinez hitting 17 homeruns this year when he's hit over 20 the past 2 years. It seems that they are very conservative when it comes to established players and very liberal when it comes to prospects.

[beatlehead84]

Nobody has any thoughts on this? I searched the forums and all I really saw were old posts about what the formula means. I know how it works, I was just wondering if anybody else thought some guys were low and some guys were high. Some guys I had questions about were Martinez, Mariano Rivera and Ryan Howard. One guy I did agree with Pecota was Chone Figgins. He's projected way lower than any fantasy mag out there, which seems right.

However, I still wonder if I should try to use their projections for fantasy purposes.

[Madison]

I've used them in aiding my rankings, but you have to take any set of projections with a grain of salt.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

The rate stats for PECOTA are perfectly fine to use for fantasy purposes. The counting stats, however, are based upon a median estimate, which tends to be low. If you have access for the full PECOTA stats, I'd tend to use the 75 percentile stats for those.

And the breakout/collapse rates are great for identifying guys to target or avoid.