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Josh Beckett

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Josh Beckett

Postby DaShiz23 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:23 pm

everyone knows about him. nasty stuff, great pitcher. everyone also knows the injury problems. and now we know he is in Boston. any predictions for him. he seems to be available quite late, and looks to me like a great value pick, even a great #1. Thoughts?
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Postby nuggets » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:25 pm

Seems like you know him well enough, other than the fact that most pichers stats are hurt by the AL east.

my reccomendation would be to plug his name in to this:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/search.php
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Postby jbones733 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:26 pm

im a huge Beckett fan but am a lil scared, NL guys goin to the AL is always scary & the blisters & injuries, typical huge upside, huge risk guy, if your feeling lucky go for it, him & prior are in same boat as far as im concerned
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:30 pm

Beckett is wors ethan Prior risk wise imo. Beckett not only can;t stay healthy, he is headed to the AL East where his team will face the Yanks, Os, Tor and TB 19 times a season. And he is leaving a very pitcher friendly park. Ratios have to climb.
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Postby Gags Sports » Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:44 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Beckett is wors ethan Prior risk wise imo.


Agree. Beckett has a blister problem that has stayed with him his entire pro career so far. He's also got a shoulder 'issue' that was raised during the trade to Boston. Beware. All of Prior's injuries have been freak by nature and not the usual rotator cuff or elbow problems.

TheYanks04 wrote:Beckett not only can;t stay healthy, he is headed to the AL East where his team will face the Yanks, Os, Tor and TB 19 times a season.


Agree. Facing the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays and Devil Rays is a lot different than facing the Astros, Cardinals, Reds, Brewers and Pirates (chuckle). C'mon, that's not even a comparison.

TheYanks04 wrote:And he is leaving a very pitcher friendly park. Ratios have to climb.


Agree here too. What gets overlooked is that Beckett put up only good (not great) numbers in Florida which was an extreme pitchers park. He never really dominated there. His best ERA over a full season was 2003 when it was 3.04. I am a firm believer in the theory that on average, when a pitcher changes leagues (from NL to AL in this case) their ERA will rise 1.00. Over the last three years combined, Beckett's ERA was right around 3.40. Any elementary school kid can tell you that translates to a 4.40 AL ERA. Now personally, I think he's capable of doing much better than that, but if he couldn't do it in the NL East, what makes you think he's going to do it in the AL East? I'd let somebody else take him this year.
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Postby dewey finn » Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:54 am

Avoiding him like the plague in all my drafts.
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Postby Pokey » Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:12 am

Gags Sports wrote:Over the last three years combined, Beckett's ERA was right around 3.40. Any elementary school kid can tell you that translates to a 4.40 AL ERA. Now personally, I think he's capable of doing much better than that, but if he couldn't do it in the NL East, what makes you think he's going to do it in the AL East?


The fact that he's 25 and in all liklihood still hasn't reached his ceiling.
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Postby bigh0rt » Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:22 am

Aren't there like a dozen threads on this already in this very forum (Leftovers)??

There's no need to reach for him with his history of blisteritis. That tends to be something that doesn't just go away out of the blue. There's plenty of other pitchers I'd rather have at the spot in the draft people are talking about drafting Beckett.
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Postby WittyC » Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:29 am

Gags Sports wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Beckett is wors ethan Prior risk wise imo.


Agree. Beckett has a blister problem that has stayed with him his entire pro career so far. He's also got a shoulder 'issue' that was raised during the trade to Boston. Beware. All of Prior's injuries have been freak by nature and not the usual rotator cuff or elbow problems.

TheYanks04 wrote:Beckett not only can;t stay healthy, he is headed to the AL East where his team will face the Yanks, Os, Tor and TB 19 times a season.


Agree. Facing the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays and Devil Rays is a lot different than facing the Astros, Cardinals, Reds, Brewers and Pirates (chuckle). C'mon, that's not even a comparison.

TheYanks04 wrote:And he is leaving a very pitcher friendly park. Ratios have to climb.


Agree here too. What gets overlooked is that Beckett put up only good (not great) numbers in Florida which was an extreme pitchers park. He never really dominated there. His best ERA over a full season was 2003 when it was 3.04. I am a firm believer in the theory that on average, when a pitcher changes leagues (from NL to AL in this case) their ERA will rise 1.00. Over the last three years combined, Beckett's ERA was right around 3.40. Any elementary school kid can tell you that translates to a 4.40 AL ERA. Now personally, I think he's capable of doing much better than that, but if he couldn't do it in the NL East, what makes you think he's going to do it in the AL East? I'd let somebody else take him this year.


Not entirely true on this account... in 2004 he missed time with that achilles problem, if I recall correctly, because he threw far more innings that year than he had in any prior year. Pun intended. :*)
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Postby RynMan » Fri Mar 03, 2006 10:37 am

Gags Sports wrote:Agree here too. What gets overlooked is that Beckett put up only good (not great) numbers in Florida which was an extreme pitchers park. He never really dominated there. His best ERA over a full season was 2003 when it was 3.04. I am a firm believer in the theory that on average, when a pitcher changes leagues (from NL to AL in this case) their ERA will rise 1.00. Over the last three years combined, Beckett's ERA was right around 3.40. Any elementary school kid can tell you that translates to a 4.40 AL ERA. Now personally, I think he's capable of doing much better than that, but if he couldn't do it in the NL East, what makes you think he's going to do it in the AL East? I'd let somebody else take him this year.


Right you are good sir. Take a look at Beckett's home/road splits for last season and you will realise just how nice it is to pitch in Florida. :-o
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