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PECOTA help

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PECOTA help

Postby reiser » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:31 am

I took the plunge, and was wondering if someone had advice on how they use the projections.

Is VORP concerned with position at all? That is to say is Furcal 30 points ahead of the average major leaguer, or average shortstop?

I like the idea of sorting by Breakout rate, any thoughts on this?

Finally, how many players do you delete? I don't need a projection for every player getting 10 AB.
Thanks!
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Postby Ender » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:10 am

Yes position matters for Vorp, defense does not btw.

The breakout stat is tricky to use. It shows their chance to breakout compared to their 3 year average, you also need to look at the collapse rate as some players will have breakout and collapse which basically means the system doesn't think it can predict their numbers very accurately.

PECOTA doesn't really factor in for major league playtime so you can't delete players just based on AB's. You need to decide which players are going to start for their team and use the projections for those players. It also doesn't understand things like someone who has been a backup for 5 years but is now getting a chance to start, so you have to adjust for that situation by yourself.
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Postby reiser » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:14 pm

Ender wrote:Yes position matters for Vorp, defense does not btw.

PECOTA doesn't really factor in for major league playtime so you can't delete players just based on AB's. You need to decide which players are going to start for their team and use the projections for those players. It also doesn't understand things like someone who has been a backup for 5 years but is now getting a chance to start, so you have to adjust for that situation by yourself.


hmm...not quite sure I understand VORP then. But I will gamble on the players getting 10 AB's :)
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Postby Ender » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:25 pm

VORP has no real meaning from a fantasy standpoint.

For real baseball its a measurement of how valuable a hitter a player is compared to a replacement player. A replacement player is generally about as good as what most teams bench guys are. VORP measures how many runs a player score compared to that replacement player. Its also adjusted for park effects.

Most people use the number 10 Runs = 1 Win. So for every 10 points of VORP a player gives you 1 Win more than a team full of backup players at each position.

I hope that explained it a little bit better though I'm sure you are still confused~.
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Postby nuggets » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:27 pm

The best idea is to go to the source.
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Postby reiser » Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:37 am

Ender wrote:VORP has no real meaning from a fantasy standpoint.


well, users in here have certainly discussed it as a means of ranking players. and if you sort by VORP, it pretty much looks like the top players in Fantasy :)

does BP not have a combined sheet though of fantasy value? i.e. pitchers and hitters?
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Postby RynMan » Fri Mar 03, 2006 10:33 am

reiser wrote:
Ender wrote:VORP has no real meaning from a fantasy standpoint.


well, users in here have certainly discussed it as a means of ranking players. and if you sort by VORP, it pretty much looks like the top players in Fantasy :)

does BP not have a combined sheet though of fantasy value? i.e. pitchers and hitters?


The PECOTA system is the method of predicting a player's performance. VORP is simply one of the metrics contained within the PECOTA system that indicates a player's predicted value for the coming year. The PECOTA projections also contain all other stats, which is why many people in here refer to it alot - it is essentially predicting how well players are going to perform in the fantasy categories. As Ender has elluded to, VORP really doesn't have any fantasy applications.....
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Postby Ender » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:41 am

VORP is a concept that a lot of owners use when making their ranking sheets which is why you see it discussed here. Its more useful for auction leagues than draft leagues. Basically you compare a player to a player who would be on the free agent list and use that to determine positional scarcity since in theory you can get any free agent type player for $1 at the end of the auction.

For draft leagues I think value over average player is more useful.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:12 am

If you have access to the website, you should just use the Player Forecast Manager. It's updated for playing time and is built specifically for Fantasy purposes, where you can plug in your roster size, categories used, etc.
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