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Scott Kazmir's ceiling?

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Postby Jackie Treehorn » Wed Mar 01, 2006 11:02 pm

Similar problems with walks was why Webb was a steal last year, Oliver Perez the year before.
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Postby Seanyfever » Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:30 am

davidmarver wrote:Kazmir has chronic control problems, reminiscent of Rick Ankiel (Ankiel is actually the most similar pitcher to Kazmir according to baseball-reference.com). Until he gets that under control (which will be at the expense of Ks), his WHIP will stay high and his innings pitched will remain too low for his ERA to make an impact.

I'd wait another season on Kazmir rather than risk sub-par numbers.


He is an injury away from this level. Kazmir has a high ceiling, but some tings have to fall into place.
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Postby brandnew » Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:38 am

Zito is God wrote:WARNING: This is EXTREMELY biased!

I think his "cieling" is a Cy Young award (meaning he has no ceiling, hes fantastic). I say i am biased because I think I follow Kazmir more then any other pitcher excluding Zito and maybe Webb. I think the guy is just that good, his K rate is tremendous for his age and I see his slider improving with time. Tampa won't get him too many wins though, but when Delmon and Gathwright come into their own I see a POSSIBILITY of a Cy Young for him (Yes, I am serious). I think he will have a fantastic career with a K rate of more then 1/IP as well as ERAs under 3 once he develops and if the DRays get the O going a 20 game winner as well.


Would Gathright really have that big of an impact on the team? Did you mean Delmon and BJ or Crawdaddy?
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Postby garf112 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:40 am

I think Kazmir will be great, but he has to harness his control not only to lower his WHIP, but also to avoid injury from throwing too many pitches. In terms of stats:
2006- 190 IP, 200K, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
2007- 200 IP, 220K, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Zito is God: The Devil Rays averaged 4.63 runs per game last year, which is near AL average (4.76). If Kazmir can lower his walk rate, he will probably win 15 games. The Rays were bad last year because they gave up 5.78 runs per game a full run above league average.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:48 am

I would put Kazmirs ceiling at around a top 10-15 SP in the bigs in a few years. Once he can control his walks, I think he will shoot up the sheets and start to become a top fantasy pitcher every year(somewhere around a good #2)
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:51 am

As far as the surrounding cast go I can say that one of the main things the Rays need is improvement in the bullpen. Orvella could be a good closer...time will tell on that...but they also need a bit more depth too. This year probably won't be good for that but hopefully they can add to the depth there by 2007.

Their offense projects to be quite a bit above average by 2007 - especially if BJ Upton is able to play SS. An OF of Crawford, Baldelli and Delmon Young with an IF featuring Lee, Cantu and BJ is a nice core to build around for 2007 and beyond.

That's why I'm considering trying to trade for him in a keeper...the guy I'm thinking of trading with has no 3B at all and I have Scott Rolen right now. Kazmir wouldn't be a keeper for this guy so it seems like a trade that could definitely work out for both of us (especially since even people that are high on Kazmir don't expect great things in 2006). This is a throwaway year for me so I don't care how Kazmir does in 2006...sounds like he's the perfect guy to pick up in that situation.
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Postby Zito is God » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:55 am

brandnew wrote:
Zito is God wrote:WARNING: This is EXTREMELY biased!

I think his "cieling" is a Cy Young award (meaning he has no ceiling, hes fantastic). I say i am biased because I think I follow Kazmir more then any other pitcher excluding Zito and maybe Webb. I think the guy is just that good, his K rate is tremendous for his age and I see his slider improving with time. Tampa won't get him too many wins though, but when Delmon and Gathwright come into their own I see a POSSIBILITY of a Cy Young for him (Yes, I am serious). I think he will have a fantastic career with a K rate of more then 1/IP as well as ERAs under 3 once he develops and if the DRays get the O going a 20 game winner as well.


Would Gathright really have that big of an impact on the team? Did you mean Delmon and BJ or Crawdaddy?


I think Upton is self explanantory and Crawford is already a 1st rounder (argueably) so I actually believe Gathwright is a big piece. I love speed, and Gathwright is as fast of a player as I have EVER seen with my eyes (Have not seen henderson is his early years I admit). gathwright's problem is he can only hit singles, his power is at a minimum. If he can loop some shots into the OF for doubles he actually has the speed to hit 5-6 inside the parkers in the course of a season. I think gathwright could be very valuable to a team if the use him correctly and develop his power a little bit.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:08 pm

Gathright is not likely a long term part of the DRays plans. Crawford and Baldelli are locked up to long term contracts showing that the team is dedicated to them in LF and CF...Delmon Young is definitely a bigger prospect than Gathright which takes away RF as an option. Barring injury to one of those 3 Gathright will most likely be dealt away or relegated to pinch running duty late in games and filling in for people on their days off.
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Postby Zito is God » Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:07 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:Gathright is not likely a long term part of the DRays plans. Crawford and Baldelli are locked up to long term contracts showing that the team is dedicated to them in LF and CF...Delmon Young is definitely a bigger prospect than Gathright which takes away RF as an option. Barring injury to one of those 3 Gathright will most likely be dealt away or relegated to pinch running duty late in games and filling in for people on their days off.


I doubt a prospect like Gathwright would be used as a pinch runner. Too much talent o be JUST what. He can DH/be dealt. If he is dealt this move is unwise at this point because his stock is very mediocre right now and the Rays can't get much.

They are however deseperate for bullpen help so they might pull the trigger early in terms of Gathwright for Looper or something of the sort.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:19 pm

I've seen news articles where Gathright's name was being bandied about in return for pitching prospects (mostly SP guys but obviously SP prospects can become SP's or RP's either one and to be honest, the Rays could use both).
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