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Carlos Lee's BA

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Carlos Lee's BA

Postby cordscords » Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:45 pm

How do you read his rollercoaster BA?

99- .293
00- .301
01- .269
02- .264
03- .291
04- .305
05- .265

If we follow the 2 year trend, he should hit around .265-.270

Can any Brewers fan tell me what to expect from him this year? I've got him marked down for 30 HR, 10 SB, but cant put my finger on an average.
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Postby Ben_Sheets » Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:56 pm

Yea your projections seem about right, and your guess for average is about as good as mine. I'd like to see him bat .275 but he's cabable of .280 or even .290. His career RISP average is good at .284, so maybe since the Brewers offense is better not only will his rbi total increase but his batting average too. That's kind of a reach to say that, but you never know.
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Postby hooligan1 » Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:59 pm

You may be better off asking for input from Sox fans, but at any rate it seems like a tough one to call. You could go with the two year average and "expect" a .260-.270 range or you could just figure it like Carlos Beltran owners do: he seems a lock to hit somewhere beteween .260 and .310...... :-D

I guess I'd go with the median say, .285ish and then you are pleasently suprised if he goes .300 or .305 but you're not too disapointed if he manages only .267......
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Postby Zito is God » Sun Feb 26, 2006 6:23 pm

What I expect: the Brewers to trade him. :-D

I see him as a .280 hitter. He'll make up for it with better numbers in the RBI department now that Weeks is healthy and Fielder will likely bat in front as well though. He seems to be going VERY late in drafts as most pass him up. Could be a steal if you analyze the draft right. ;-D
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Postby Ender » Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:00 am

I think the safe projection is around .280, he won't be more than 20 points lower than that most likely and he won't be more than 20 points better.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:41 pm

lee's babip (batting average on balls in play) was 26% last year, slightly lower than his career norm of 29% (and i think league average of around 30%). this would suggest lee was a little unlucky last year, and if he had his normal luck he might have batted closer to .280-.290.
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Postby stumpak » Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:45 pm

I see no reason not to expect .280.

But the trick with Lee is that he is perhaps the streakiest hitter in MLB. His final numbers are largely contingent on how often he goes on one of his patented 4-week 12 Hr/.400 BA streaks. It is this more than anything tat dirves inconsistency on a season by season basis.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:50 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:lee's babip (batting average on balls in play) was 26% last year, slightly lower than his career norm of 29% (and i think league average of around 30%). this would suggest lee was a little unlucky last year, and if he had his normal luck he might have batted closer to .280-.290.


I think .290 is probably the most accurate projection. His career AVG is .284 and hitting at MIL with good hitters around him should really help him.
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Carlos Lee's BA

Postby kemper5 » Mon Feb 27, 2006 3:02 pm

I would not be surprised to see slight slippage in his #'s this year to the tune of a 27 HR, 95 RBI, 10 SB, .280 ave type season.. While those are solid #'s, I just would not be shocked to see a slight downgrade overall.
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