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Dunn. Love Him or Hate Him?

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Postby mikekim2121 » Tue Oct 03, 2006 6:01 pm

Yoda wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Yoda wrote:
wrveres wrote:Yoda, hopefully now you understand why I walked away from this discussion two years ago..

roughly 75% of their agrguement always begins with ..

If .....


I have never seen any player as overrated as Dunn. NEVER.


yeah, it is quite comical though :-)


Yes it is... People are so passionate about how freaking awesome he is that they ignore basic principles in evaluating players.

Mean batting average for a player in a 25 man roster with 13 position starting lineup is appx .280. Anything below that is negative value. 30-40 points below average is not just bad. It is really bad which means he needs to rely on 4 other categories to bring up his value. Since he doesn't really steal, he needs to rely on 3 categories. Why would you want that in the first 5 rounds?


Thats true but what is the real difference between him and someone who produces below the mean in SB's or Runs? Its the same thing, its just that all the other hitting stats are "counting" stats so if they have anything it looks positive even though its really not. BA is the only one of the hitting stats that's not a "counting" stat and it makes him look worse.

Granted, I won't be taking him in the first 5 rounds but if he falls, there's always value for him. There's a right spot for almost anyone.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Oct 03, 2006 6:08 pm

mikekim2121 wrote:
Thats true but what is the real difference between him and someone who produces below the mean in SB's or Runs? Its the same thing, its just that all the other hitting stats are "counting" stats so if they have anything it looks positive even though its really not. BA is the only one of the hitting stats that's not a "counting" stat and it makes him look worse.

Granted, I won't be taking him in the first 5 rounds but if he falls, there's always value for him. There's a right spot for almost anyone.


the biggest difference is that nobody is taking runs away from your overall total. He actaully takes away from your BA. Would you own a pitcher that has a 5.00 ERA but K's alot of guys? I wouldn't .. Also guys that lack SB's and Runs, are not going to get drafted in the first 5 rounds every year. Heck they would be lucky to be drafted in the 1st 10 rounds.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 03, 2006 6:29 pm

mikekim2121 wrote:
Yoda wrote:Yes it is... People are so passionate about how freaking awesome he is that they ignore basic principles in evaluating players.

Mean batting average for a player in a 25 man roster with 13 position starting lineup is appx .280. Anything below that is negative value. 30-40 points below average is not just bad. It is really bad which means he needs to rely on 4 other categories to bring up his value. Since he doesn't really steal, he needs to rely on 3 categories. Why would you want that in the first 5 rounds?


Thats true but what is the real difference between him and someone who produces below the mean in SB's or Runs? Its the same thing, its just that all the other hitting stats are "counting" stats so if they have anything it looks positive even though its really not. BA is the only one of the hitting stats that's not a "counting" stat and it makes him look worse.

Granted, I won't be taking him in the first 5 rounds but if he falls, there's always value for him. There's a right spot for almost anyone.


You make some good points. According to ESPN rankings, a truly average player put up the following stats in 06:

R = 81
HR = 21
RBI = 79
SB = 11
AVG = .283

As you can see, anything below those would have hurt your team in each cat.

There is a point where Dunn is valuable. But if you picked him anywhere in the top 8 rounds, then he hurt your team.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:31 pm

wrveres wrote:
mikekim2121 wrote:
Thats true but what is the real difference between him and someone who produces below the mean in SB's or Runs? Its the same thing, its just that all the other hitting stats are "counting" stats so if they have anything it looks positive even though its really not. BA is the only one of the hitting stats that's not a "counting" stat and it makes him look worse.

Granted, I won't be taking him in the first 5 rounds but if he falls, there's always value for him. There's a right spot for almost anyone.


the biggest difference is that nobody is taking runs away from your overall total. He actaully takes away from your BA. Would you own a pitcher that has a 5.00 ERA but K's alot of guys? I wouldn't .. Also guys that lack SB's and Runs, are not going to get drafted in the first 5 rounds every year. Heck they would be lucky to be drafted in the 1st 10 rounds.


But the thing is that even if a player can't actually take away runs from your total, being below average in runs is no less damaging than being below average in BA. If 81 runs is the average, then someone with 50 R is going to hurt you just as much as a .240 BA. Just because it isn't calculated as an average doesn't make it any less damaging if it's below what an average player would do.

Also, the reason that guys who lack SB and R aren't drafted that early is because it's impossible to imagine a player who would do well in BA, HR and RBI and not score a lot of runs. So BA-HR-RBI guys who don't steal or score a lot just don't exist. But if you want to talk 3-category players, there are plenty of guys who are good in BA, R, and SB but well below average in HR and RBI. Guys like Ichiro and Reyes come to mind (although Reyes did have pretty decent power this year). These guys are drafted higher than Dunn, but Dunn has the potential to excel in 3 categories just like those guys do.

You're right, though, that you can't draft Dunn in a spot where he NEEDS to put up monster numbers to validate that draft pick, since he hasn't shown that he can do it yet. But if you draft him in a spot that's reasonable for a .240-40-100-100 guy (which I'd say is similar to where you would have drafted someone like Matsui until this year, who's about a .290-25-100-100 guy), then I think it's a good pick, since you expect .240-40-100-100 but there's the potential for really monstrous numbers.
Last edited by JustAnotherYanksFan on Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:36 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
wrveres wrote:
mikekim2121 wrote:
Thats true but what is the real difference between him and someone who produces below the mean in SB's or Runs? Its the same thing, its just that all the other hitting stats are "counting" stats so if they have anything it looks positive even though its really not. BA is the only one of the hitting stats that's not a "counting" stat and it makes him look worse.

Granted, I won't be taking him in the first 5 rounds but if he falls, there's always value for him. There's a right spot for almost anyone.


the biggest difference is that nobody is taking runs away from your overall total. He actaully takes away from your BA. Would you own a pitcher that has a 5.00 ERA but K's alot of guys? I wouldn't .. Also guys that lack SB's and Runs, are not going to get drafted in the first 5 rounds every year. Heck they would be lucky to be drafted in the 1st 10 rounds.


But the thing is that even if a player can't actually take away runs from your total, being below average in runs is no less damaging than being below average in BA. If 81 runs is the average, then someone with 50 R is going to hurt you just as much as a .240 BA. Just because it isn't calculated as an average doesn't make it any less damaging if it's below what an average player would do.


Understood,
but even still, how many players routinely taken in the 5th round are going to hurt you in RBIs or Runs ..
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:42 pm

wrveres wrote:
JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
wrveres wrote:
mikekim2121 wrote:
Thats true but what is the real difference between him and someone who produces below the mean in SB's or Runs? Its the same thing, its just that all the other hitting stats are "counting" stats so if they have anything it looks positive even though its really not. BA is the only one of the hitting stats that's not a "counting" stat and it makes him look worse.

Granted, I won't be taking him in the first 5 rounds but if he falls, there's always value for him. There's a right spot for almost anyone.


the biggest difference is that nobody is taking runs away from your overall total. He actaully takes away from your BA. Would you own a pitcher that has a 5.00 ERA but K's alot of guys? I wouldn't .. Also guys that lack SB's and Runs, are not going to get drafted in the first 5 rounds every year. Heck they would be lucky to be drafted in the 1st 10 rounds.


But the thing is that even if a player can't actually take away runs from your total, being below average in runs is no less damaging than being below average in BA. If 81 runs is the average, then someone with 50 R is going to hurt you just as much as a .240 BA. Just because it isn't calculated as an average doesn't make it any less damaging if it's below what an average player would do.


Understood,
but even still, how many players routinely taken in the 5th round are going to hurt you in RBIs or Runs ..


I ended up editing my last post and adding a couple things to it, which should answer that question.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:46 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
I ended up editing my last post and adding a couple things to it, which should answer that question.


i got it thanks ..

I think we are fairly close in our thinking ;-D
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Postby mikekim2121 » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:23 pm

Yoda wrote:As you can see, anything below those would have hurt your team in each cat.


That's exactly what I'm saying.

Hey, I'm just glad we're all understanding each other now. I think most people don't realize that being below avg in runs or any of the counting categories is just like being below avg in avg. It just doesn't seem the same because no matter what, you are adding runs, sbs, hrs, etc to your team total. For those that still think there is a difference, look at espn.com's player rater and it'll show you exactly if they are below/above avg and how it helps/hurts the avg team.

I guess at this point we are all just trying to figure out where he should go and where he would have value. But you are probably right in saying that he'll go higher than he should on average because of his potential for HRs.

There is no doubt I will agree with you that he should NOT go in the first 5 or 6 rounds. At this point, I'm really not sure where to rank him because he's just as likely next year to post a horrible BA. I traded for him this year thinking he'd help me in the power stats and he couldn't even do that once I got him.

At this point, I guess I'm on the hate him side as well because of how he screwed me this year. But I'm not going to say no way, I'm never going to pick him because while he can really really hurt you in avg, he can still help in 3 out of 4 categories. I just would want him to slip and I won't be reaching to get him.
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