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Dunn. Love Him or Hate Him?

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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:25 am

.234... ;-D
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Postby Ender » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:01 pm

Its not so much the average that hurt him this year, its that he only hit 40 HR's which was the low end of what you want out of him and he didn't manage 100 R OR 100 RBI. If he was at 45 HR, 105 R, 110 RBI or something the AVG wouldn't bother me.

I didn't end up drafting him in my league because we had a Red's fan who took him in the 3rd round. So that worked out for the better, though he still outproduced Sexson which was one of the comperables I gave him.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:18 pm

Ender wrote:Its not so much the average that hurt him this year, its that he only hit 40 HR's which was the low end of what you want out of him


I'm not sure how a .234 batting average didn't hurt your team considering it is accounting for 1/5 of his value.

Also, he's hit 46 HR once and every year 40 or under so I wouldn't exactly call 40 as his 'low end'.
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Postby mikekim2121 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:26 pm

No doubt he was a bust this year but he still has value overall.
His ranks from 2005 and 2004 were 52 and 28, respectively. Even with BA's of .247 and .266 in those 2 years, he still had very respectable overall ranks.

Its kinda like a hitter who rakes in SB's but sucks in HRs. You need to make up for it with other players.

With all that being said, there is no doubt he still did very very badly this season.
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Postby Ender » Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:31 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:Its not so much the average that hurt him this year, its that he only hit 40 HR's which was the low end of what you want out of him


I'm not sure how a .234 batting average didn't hurt your team considering it is accounting for 1/5 of his value.

Also, he's hit 46 HR once and every year 40 or under so I wouldn't exactly call 40 as his 'low end'.


A .234 avg vs the .250 expected avg isn't going to kill his value. Most people predicted between 40-45 HR's out of him given his past seasons, he hit the lower end of those expectations. Most people predicted 100-110 R/RBI out of him and again he failed to reach those numbers.

If he had posted a .234 AVG with 105 R, 43 HR, 105 RBI or something like that his value wouldn't have slipped all that much compared to what people expected out of him. Instead he slipped in all areas which is what really killed him. He is still a relatively young guy and most assumed he would show small gains in numbers, not the small losses he did show.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:37 pm

Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:Its not so much the average that hurt him this year, its that he only hit 40 HR's which was the low end of what you want out of him


I'm not sure how a .234 batting average didn't hurt your team considering it is accounting for 1/5 of his value.

Also, he's hit 46 HR once and every year 40 or under so I wouldn't exactly call 40 as his 'low end'.


A .234 avg vs the .250 expected avg isn't going to kill his value. Most people predicted between 40-45 HR's out of him given his past seasons, he hit the lower end of those expectations. Most people predicted 100-110 R/RBI out of him and again he failed to reach those numbers.

If he had posted a .234 AVG with 105 R, 43 HR, 105 RBI or something like that his value wouldn't have slipped all that much compared to what people expected out of him. Instead he slipped in all areas which is what really killed him. He is still a relatively young guy and most assumed he would show small gains in numbers, not the small losses he did show.


Small losses? He finished 115th overall according to ESPN in standard 5x5 rankings. This is the worst season in 3 years for him, posting the lowest R, H, 2B, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG.

Also, look at what his AVG did to his overall value. If his AVG was just league average, then he would have been ranked 56th overall so stop saying that it doesn't hurt. Please.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Oct 03, 2006 4:48 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:Its not so much the average that hurt him this year, its that he only hit 40 HR's which was the low end of what you want out of him


I'm not sure how a .234 batting average didn't hurt your team considering it is accounting for 1/5 of his value.

Also, he's hit 46 HR once and every year 40 or under so I wouldn't exactly call 40 as his 'low end'.


A .234 avg vs the .250 expected avg isn't going to kill his value. Most people predicted between 40-45 HR's out of him given his past seasons, he hit the lower end of those expectations. Most people predicted 100-110 R/RBI out of him and again he failed to reach those numbers.

If he had posted a .234 AVG with 105 R, 43 HR, 105 RBI or something like that his value wouldn't have slipped all that much compared to what people expected out of him. Instead he slipped in all areas which is what really killed him. He is still a relatively young guy and most assumed he would show small gains in numbers, not the small losses he did show.


Small losses? He finished 115th overall according to ESPN in standard 5x5 rankings. This is the worst season in 3 years for him, posting the lowest R, H, 2B, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG.

Also, look at what his AVG did to his overall value. If his AVG was just league average, then he would have been ranked 56th overall so stop saying that it doesn't hurt. Please.


Yoda, hopefully now you understand why I walked away from this discussion two years ago..

roughly 75% of their agrguement always begins with ..

If .....
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Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 03, 2006 5:43 pm

wrveres wrote:Yoda, hopefully now you understand why I walked away from this discussion two years ago..

roughly 75% of their agrguement always begins with ..

If .....


I have never seen any player as overrated as Dunn. NEVER.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Oct 03, 2006 5:45 pm

Yoda wrote:
wrveres wrote:Yoda, hopefully now you understand why I walked away from this discussion two years ago..

roughly 75% of their agrguement always begins with ..

If .....


I have never seen any player as overrated as Dunn. NEVER.


yeah, it is quite comical though :-)
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Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 03, 2006 5:58 pm

wrveres wrote:
Yoda wrote:
wrveres wrote:Yoda, hopefully now you understand why I walked away from this discussion two years ago..

roughly 75% of their agrguement always begins with ..

If .....


I have never seen any player as overrated as Dunn. NEVER.


yeah, it is quite comical though :-)


Yes it is... People are so passionate about how freaking awesome he is that they ignore basic principles in evaluating players.

Mean batting average for a player in a 25 man roster with 13 position starting lineup is appx .280. Anything below that is negative value. 30-40 points below average is not just bad. It is really bad which means he needs to rely on 4 other categories to bring up his value. Since he doesn't really steal, he needs to rely on 3 categories. Why would you want that in the first 5 rounds?
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