Yoda wrote:You would figure that a regression year in his prime age would turn people off but no... People will continue to chase his monster year which may or may not come. I don't get it.
The same reason peeople will chase after Prior year in and out. Or kept drafting Griffey high for years after it was obvious he could not stay healthy. Dunn is what he is. A guy that will hit homers and hit for an avg between 230 and 260. Draft him accordingly. If he hits 260 something, he is not a bad player to have around as the damage to the avg category is not too bad. One of those .232 seasons though make him a a lot less attractive a fantasy OF.
People ahve been overpaying for Dunn for years in hopes of that one big year. It will come but I am not sure if he can achieve one of those seasons and stay up there for good.
Maybe after this down year, he will be a bargain at the 07 draft but... I doubt it.
4th, 5th, 6th round every year.
It boggles the mind.
it is almost like, "At what price home runs?"
We had a running joke around here for a while, that Adam Dunn would be the first player in history to have 50 Runs, 50 HR's and 50 RBI's. That was back when people were claiming Preston Wilson should be a 1st rounder. That group learned. Why can't the Dunn lovers?
Yoda wrote:You would figure that a regression year in his prime age would turn people off but no... People will continue to chase his monster year which may or may not come. I don't get it.
The same reason peeople will chase after Prior year in and out. Or kept drafting Griffey high for years after it was obvious he could not stay healthy. Dunn is what he is. A guy that will hit homers and hit for an avg between 230 and 260. Draft him accordingly. If he hits 260 something, he is not a bad player to have around as the damage to the avg category is not too bad. One of those .232 seasons though make him a a lot less attractive a fantasy OF.
People ahve been overpaying for Dunn for years in hopes of that one big year. It will come but I am not sure if he can achieve one of those seasons and stay up there for good.
Maybe after this down year, he will be a bargain at the 07 draft but... I doubt it.
4th, 5th, 6th round every year. It boggles the mind.
it is almost like, "At what price home runs?"
We had a running joke around here for a while, that Adam Dunn would be the first player in history to have 50 Runs, 50 HR's and 50 RBI's. That was back when people were claiming Preston Wilson should be a 1st rounder. That group learned. Why can't the Dunn lovers?
I think people really thought this would be the year for Dunn. Even his strongest supporters should realize by now that the year to year return you get from him doesn't warrant the high price you pay at the draft.
He will put together a couple of nice seasons but I'm willing to bet it comes when people least expect it ala Andruw Jones.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda wrote: I think people really thought this would be the year for Dunn. Even his strongest supporters should realize by now that the year to year return you get from him doesn't warrant the high price you pay at the draft.
He will put together a couple of nice seasons but I'm willing to bet it comes when people least expect it ala Andruw Jones.
Look - I won't touch him due to average. It is tough enough to predict average (e.g. Ichiro swings from .310 to .370) to know who/how many high average guys you have to get to overcome Dunn's average.
That said, if he's the 60-65th player overall, and you drafted him late 5th or 6th in a 12 team league, you're pretty much getting value. Anything earlier and you need to hope he gets his average into the .260 range and he's hit above .250 once so far in his career.
Does that mean he can't hit .260+? No. But Yoda is correct that until he puts more balls in play, the odds of him hitting in the .260s are diminished. When you have 550 AB and 190 are strikeouts, you need to hit close to .400 in the other 360 AB to hit .260. No matter how great a player is, it is hard to hit .400 (when strikeouts are removed). E.g Pujols is at .363 this year and Mauer is .389. Most of the top 10 in batting are in the .380-.390 range. Dye at .407 and Berkman at .397 are also up there. The only player who stands substantially above the .400 level this year that I can find is Howard, at above .450.
Anyway, until he shows the ability to reduce his Ks, his average is likely limited which hurts his overall value. Can he cut them down? Yes, as many players have shown as they got older. Until he does it, though, I wouldn't take him before the 5th (and likely the 6th).
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wrveres wrote:* warning, this could be "mind blowing" *
So I was glanceing thru this thread .. .. again .. and this just struck me as funny
Zito is God wrote:Yoda: How about we just make a deal. being real men, lets just put this thread into our favorites and at the end of the season whoever is wrong will post here and say the other was right, sound good?
overall, there sure is alot of .. "If"'s in this thread
With 6 games left, assuming he averages 3.5 ABs per game, he will need to go 12 for 21 to finish at .250 for the season. He could pull it off but I doubt it.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Zito is God wrote:Yoda: How about we just make a deal. being real men, lets just put this thread into our favorites and at the end of the season whoever is wrong will post here and say the other was right, sound good?
I was just going to say to Yoda:
Dont come crying to me when he IS in the top 20 if not top 10 hitters overall.
I don't like him much I wouldn't have him on my team. I had a chance to trade for him awhile back this season and turned down the offer. I'm not going to deal with his -190 pts from all his K's. It's just not worth the trouble.
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by wrveres » Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:54 pm 
