Dunn. Love Him or Hate Him? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Dunn. Love Him or Hate Him?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby wrveres » Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:54 pm

perlick29 wrote:Good projections from PECOTA today.

They have Adam Dunn at .263 111runs 103rbi 41hr 104BB 148k 6sb.

Those numbers are on the low end of PECOTA projections because what I found most interesting was that he ranks 5th in overall upside behind only these players:

Miguel Cabrera
Arod
Pujols
David Wright

What it means is that the numbers above are the least he could do this year. He very well could tear it up even harder according to BP.


this is exactly the kind of arguement that everybody tries to throw at me ... :-D

"He will be a .290 hitter, just watch"
"He has a great batting eye"
"He is unlucky"
"His hits don't find holes"
"His Xpa and his Z9932bRGTYHUI789, says he will be great"

yeah what ever ...
When batting eye becomes a stat in Roto .. .. call me
I wouldn't draft Adam Dunn in round 20, I just wouldn't.
wrveres
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe Musketeer
Posts: 31783
(Past Year: 720)
Joined: 2 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby wrveres » Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:56 pm

oh and I forgot the SB's ..

"He steals bases, and that is sooo rare in a 1B"

o-kay :-°
wrveres
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe Musketeer
Posts: 31783
(Past Year: 720)
Joined: 2 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Yoda » Sat Sep 23, 2006 1:12 pm

wrveres wrote:
perlick29 wrote:Good projections from PECOTA today.

They have Adam Dunn at .263 111runs 103rbi 41hr 104BB 148k 6sb.

Those numbers are on the low end of PECOTA projections because what I found most interesting was that he ranks 5th in overall upside behind only these players:

Miguel Cabrera
Arod
Pujols
David Wright

What it means is that the numbers above are the least he could do this year. He very well could tear it up even harder according to BP.


this is exactly the kind of arguement that everybody tries to throw at me ... :-D

"He will be a .290 hitter, just watch"
"He has a great batting eye"
"He is unlucky"
"His hits don't find holes"
"His Xpa and his Z9932bRGTYHUI789, says he will be great"

yeah what ever ...
When batting eye becomes a stat in Roto .. .. call me
I wouldn't draft Adam Dunn in round 20, I just wouldn't.


He does not make enough contact to hit for a high BA. He may get lucky one or two years and post above average BA but he is what he is. A pure power hitter, who in standard 5x5 leagues is not worth a high pick as most people overrate every year.
Last edited by Yoda on Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Postby cordscords » Sat Sep 23, 2006 4:57 pm

Dunn Stinks ;-D
cordscords
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4346
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 23 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby rainman23 » Sat Sep 23, 2006 5:46 pm

He can be ok, depending on what the rest of your lineup looks like. You've got to balance him with one or two real high B.A. guys, for sure. You'd rather not have that kind of team, of course -- one guy carrying the load on homers, another on B.A., another on SB's. Injuries can kill you on a team that's this unbalanced. But if you can get players like this at the right spot in the draft, you can build a pretty potent offense. Everybody's right, though -- Dunn will probably go earlier than his one or two (in OBP leagues) talents will support.
rainman23
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 937
Joined: 19 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:28 am

I took Dunn in the 3rd round this year (14 team league, and more importantly a keeper), and although I can't say I'm exactly thrilled with the way he's finished out the year, I think he's still been valuable to me. I'm actually doing pretty well in the BA category (although I do have Miguel Cabrera, which helps), and Dunn is pretty solid everywhere else.

I still have the feeling that Dunn's best years are ahead of him. He's still only 26 or 27 (I think), and you'd have to think that he's basically a .245-ish hitter who can end up anywhere from .230 to .265. I think it's hard to see him doing worse than he did this year, and I don't find it that hard to see him hitting .255 or .260 with 50 HR, 110 R and 110 RBI. I'm not saying he's a lock for those kinds of numbers by any means, but going into next year, I see him as being similar to Andruw Jones after '04 - a great hitter who's been around a few years but is still young enough to have room for improvement, just showed what his floor is, but who still has the potential to put up some monster numbers. I'm not saying he'll have the kind of year in '07 that Jones did in '05, but basically, I still have some faith in Dunn in the future.
JustAnotherYanksFan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1004
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Fantasy Guru » Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:51 am

I love him because I only play in OBP leagues that don't count strikeouts.

love love love
ImageYeah.. this "fantasy guru" thing is just a user name, folks.
Fantasy Guru
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1811
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cooperstown

Postby Yoda » Sun Sep 24, 2006 11:17 am

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote: I don't find it that hard to see him hitting .255 or .260


This is where people are wrong. Dunn hit over .249 exactly once in his career when he hit .266 in 04.

Obviously if you play in an OBP league, he is much more valuable but his BA actually hurts you in standard leagues. He is a 3 category producer who is grossly overrated.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Postby Fade2White12 » Sun Sep 24, 2006 11:46 am

So? Other than his injured year, he has been .247 or above. An 8 -13 point rise in average is very little. If he would have gotten 5 more hits last year, he would have hit .256 - that's 5 grounders that would have found holes, etc. Anyway, he's had only 4 full seasons including this one - I wouldn't rule out such a small BA swing in a small sample size like this one.
Image
Fade2White12
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 3852
(Past Year: 41)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Michigan

Postby Yoda » Sun Sep 24, 2006 11:51 am

Fade2White12 wrote:So? Other than his injured year, he has been .247 or above. An 8 -13 point rise in average is very little. If he would have gotten 5 more hits last year, he would have hit .256 - that's 5 grounders that would have found holes, etc. Anyway, he's had only 4 full seasons including this one - I wouldn't rule out such a small BA swing in a small sample size like this one.


WOW .256... That is really awesome. Now that would make him a worthy 5th round pick.

I honestly do not understand people's infatuation with Dunn. :-D
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ballaxomiafef and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Oct. 2
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Detroit at Baltimore
(5:37 pm)
Kansas City at LA Angels
(9:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact