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Rankings and Standard Deviations

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Rankings and Standard Deviations

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:05 am

From this thread...
http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... p?t=170723

I've ranked players by their standard deviation. These are the 20 players showing the greatest variation in their rankings. Discuss.

<pre>
Rank Name Pos Team StDev*
211 Juan Uribe SS CWS 60.312
265 Chad Orvella RP TB 59.716
346 Miguel Batista SP ARI 59.61
164 Bobby Crosby SS OAK 56.115
203 Mike Lowell 3B BOS 56.015
224 Wily Mo Pena OF CIN 55.244
232 Chris Ray RP BAL 55.229
343 Jose Vidro 2B WAS 54.75
195 Jeremy Hermida OF FLA 54.556
276 BJ Upton SS TB 54.018
202 Craig Monroe OF DET 53.535
180 Bill Hall SS MIL 51.658
214 Preston Wilson OF HOU 51.544
187 Rocco Baldelli OF TB 50.602
294 Delmon Young OF TB 50.474
228 Joe Crede 3B CWS 49.825
181 Matt Morris SP SF 48.914
269 Austin Kearns OF CIN 48.169
261 Kenny Rogers SP DET 48.011
</pre>

A few groups jump out:
Newcomers: Upton, Hermida, Orvella, Ray, Young
Rebounders?:Lowell, Vidro
Wounded: Baldelli, Kearns, Crosby
Starter/Bench/Role?:Hall, Monroe

From that list, who do you think is ranked too high? Too low?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:08 am

A second list, now, where players are ranked by coefficient of variation, which measures variation as a percentage of the mean. This tends to focus on highly ranked guys where there is some question about performance.

<pre>
Rank Name Pos Team StDev* CV
14 Miguel Tejada SS BAL 9.721 0.694357143
17 Alfonso Soriano 2B WAS 10.501 0.617705882
5 Manny Ramirez OF BOS 2.893 0.5786
8 David Ortiz 1B BOS 4.502 0.56275
6 Derrek Lee 1B CHC 2.99 0.498333333
27 Carlos Beltran OF NYM 12.72 0.471111111
37 Roy Halladay SP TOR 16.564 0.447675676
20 Pedro Martinez SP NYM 8.833 0.44165
21 Gary Sheffield OF NYY 9.268 0.441333333
33 Mariano Rivera RP NYY 14.239 0.431484848
24 Chris Carpenter SP STL 10.217 0.425708333
22 Chone Figgins OF LAA 8.961 0.407318182
41 Randy Johnson SP NYY 16.648 0.40604878
3 Vlad Guerrero OF LAA 1.2 0.4
23 Todd Helton 1B COL 9.057 0.393782609
50 Barry Bonds OF SF 19.579 0.39158
43 Victor Martinez C CLE 16.716 0.388744186
47 Ben Sheets SP MIL 17.774 0.378170213
7 Johan Santana SP MIN 2.618 0.374
79 Joe Mauer C MIN 28.984 0.366886076
</pre>
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Re: Rankings and Standard Deviations

Postby Iconoclastic » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:27 am

Juan Uribe- age peak theory
Chad Orvella- lotta people dunno he's closing
Miguel Batista- reverse of Orvella
Bobby Crosby- off injury
Mike Lowell- boun-b-b-b-b-bounce back
Wily Mo Pena- power potential
Chris Ray- see Orvella
Jose Vidro- Soriano situation
Jeremy Hermida- rookie lust
BJ Upton- see Hermida
Craig Monroe- er, dunno about this one, I guess most dont know about him and others like the peak age theory
Bill Hall- people think last year wasn't a fluke
Preston Wilson- Colorado season
Rocco Baldelli- see Crosby
Delmon Young- see Upton x 10
Joe Crede- postseason magnification
Matt Morris- most have given up on him but some think park effects can get him back to peak Cardinal numbers
Austin Kearns- see Baldelli
Kenny Rogers- likes to Gamble

They tend to be unreliable players who lure adventurous owners with a glimmer of hope.
[b]Bold Predictions:[/b]

Grady Sizemore will have more value than Jason Bay regardless of draft position

Aramis Ramirez in 155 G will hit over .300 40 HR 110 RBIs

Brian McCann will have more value than Jorge Posada regardless of draft position
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