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Sell me the idea of taking SPs early.

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Re: Sell me the idea of taking SPs early.

Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Feb 23, 2006 9:43 am

swyck wrote:The reason not to take pitchers early is that pitching performance varies more from year to year, while top hitters tend to remain top hitters. Taking hitters early is more likely to pay off.


I think that's really it. There was a chart in Baseball Prospectus last year (in the Phillies section...go figure!) explaining that statistically, pitcher's performance will vary more than hitter's so they underperform as investments, particularly when you hurl money at them like the Phillies...
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:13 am

ZIG, I'll be trying to do a practical 'sale' for you in a couple of hours by taking pitchers with my first 4 picks in a public league. May seem a little extreme, but I hope the results will be useful......
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Postby BritSox » Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:17 am

I tend to think that whenever the closer run is, is the time to take SP.

rotterdam_82 wrote:ZIG, I'll be trying to do a practical 'sale' for you in a couple of hours by taking pitchers with my first 4 picks in a public league. May seem a little extreme, but I hope the results will be useful......


I'll tell you what, I'll do the opposite, and take hitters with my first seven. Then we can compare in this thread. I assume you're in a 'competitive' public league?
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:37 am

BritSox wrote:I tend to think that whenever the closer run is, is the time to take SP.

rotterdam_82 wrote:ZIG, I'll be trying to do a practical 'sale' for you in a couple of hours by taking pitchers with my first 4 picks in a public league. May seem a little extreme, but I hope the results will be useful......


I'll tell you what, I'll do the opposite, and take hitters with my first seven. Then we can compare in this thread. I assume you're in a 'competitive' public league?


Sounds like fun. I can't remember if it's competitive or not, I signed up for it a couple of days ago (was going to use as a standard mock). But in my experience, it makes little difference. Is there a way to find out?

Anyway, I'll be sure to let you know how I get on.

League : http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/148281
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Postby BritSox » Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:47 am

Which one's yours? If we both post our teams here, we can compare and contrast.
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:51 am

BritSox wrote:Which one's yours? If we both post our teams here, we can compare and contrast.


Sorry, my team is 'Bright Eyes'.

Edit - I just hope I snag Santana.......
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Thu Feb 23, 2006 12:25 pm

i dont like drafting pitchers early, not because they arent valuable, but because of variability in performace. i take what the draft gives me though, and last year when i didnt like the hitters still on the board it brought me pedro and oswalt in 2nd/3rd rounds. i didnt have a five category stud so i picked up podsednik. i drafted bats when others were drafting closers. i drafted closers when others were drafting starting pitchers. long story short, i still ended up with a very good well rounded team.

in my experience, if you ignore pitchers and go for bats early your team wont be well balanced. if you ignore bats and go for pitchers early your team wont be well balanced. unless your are in league where the categories arent properly divided, an unbalanced team generally isnt a good idea.
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Postby Esen » Thu Feb 23, 2006 12:25 pm

This is from a 10 team Mock draft I did last week where I was the 7th pick of the draft

I took Pitchers in the 3rd, 5th and 6th round.

And this is how it holds up.
I dont think the early pitchers hurt my team, instead I think I will have strong pitching cats and still do well with hitting.

(now watch everyone says this team sucks lol)

J. Varitek
(Bos - C)
D. Ortiz
(Bos - 1B)
J. Cantú
(TB - 2B,3B)
T. Glaus
(Tor - 3B)
J. Peralta
(Cle - SS)
B. Abreu
(Phi - OF)
C. Floyd
(NYM - OF)

J. Francoeur
(Atl - OF)
J. Hermida
(Fla - OF)
B. Hall
(Mil - 2B,3B,SS)
D. Johnson
(Oak - 1B)
R. Zimmerman
(Was - 3B)
M. Piazza
(SD - C)

R. Halladay
(Tor - SP)
C. Zambrano
(ChC - SP)
M. Rivera
(NYY - RP)
D. Turnbow
(Mil - RP)

J. Garland
(CWS - SP)
S. Kazmir
(TB - SP)
C. Orvella
(TB - RP)
J. Blanton
(Oak - SP)
S. Shields
(LAA - RP)


MODS. this is not a look at my team post, this is to show an example to support th epitching early round picks theory.

-Esen
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Postby Jmar » Thu Feb 23, 2006 2:01 pm

It makes more sense in a keeper league, of course, to grab young pitchers instead of old bats. I'd rather have Peavy or Hernandez with my 1st or 2nd round than Helton.

It also depends on how the league is set up. For example I was in a league last year with with bench spots only for position players, not pitchers. So there were always a lot of SPs on the scrap heap and absolutely no position starters. In that situation you can stay away from SPs for a long time. Although I would still try and grab a stud early, but for value.
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