The problem with pooling 48 OFs and 12 C in this manner is that there is not a guarantee that you will get median OF's should you be so bold as to draft Martinez in the first. You MAY get that type of production and you may not get that. Thing is, regardless of WHEN you select a C you hould be able to grab a composite of that median statistic much later. So the line of thinking here is flawed.
Sure, you have an advantage at catcher by drafting Martinez, but I don't see how you canbelieve that there is a better shot at posting a composite of those OF statistics than the composite of those average catching statistics later in the draft. In fact. I think the opposite is true.
olympia0731 wrote:This proves that Vmart is more valuable to a team than Bay. How can anyone argue against this? I hope this quells the believe that Vmart should not be taken in the 3/4 round.
This is a fact.
Have fun putting all your stock into a catcher. I've seen where this road has gone before.
In the first few rounds, you are trying to get the best, most reliable players possible. You should not even be considering which position you take except for the fact that you don't want to double up on one position in the first 6-8 rounds. It almost seems like to me that catchers offensive numbers are as predictable as starting pitchers... which isn't helping VMart's case.
That said, I like the value of VMart in the mid-5th, but certainly not in the 1st or 2nd rounds.
interesting thing is that none of those players will get you the power you need in the OF because you don't have Bay or the equivalent. They will make up for the steals that you won't be getting from martinez so that part of the equation is salvageable.
Now Posad combined with Bay against most of those players will propel the person who selected them above you in at least three of the five statistical categories. Not to mention, I am not certain that anyone whose played a few fantasy seasons would take Posada in the tenth.
I would simply wait until VERY late in the draft to select a catcher and add his stats to Bay's and either Winn's, Gomes, Wilkerson's or Tavarez'es (whichever one I decided to steal from your equation).
Basically, what you're missing here is how negligible the difference is between catchers ranked 5-25, as opposed to OF's ranked 15-70. This is hidden in your line of thought which is based on assumptions that typically don't hold during a competitive fantasy draft. One thing that does hold however is there are ALWAYS marginl catchers available later that can post numbers similar to those from catchers selected 10-15 rounds ahead of them.
It's all about draft value. Bay's is higher by a significant margin. btw, so are Hafner's and Sizemore's.
While I think Bay will go 30-100-100, I dont think you can say its a lock. I consider guys like Pujols, ARod, Ortiz, Manny, etc a lock...Bay, while good hasnt had the history to be considered a lock for anything. I do disagree with this post and say I much rather have Bay than VMart. In fact, I havent had VMart in one draft/auction I have done this year...catching can be had late and cheap.
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Another factor your simplistic model leaves out is the impact on batting average that the additional AB the OF get versus the C's.
Bay and your 'typical' replacement OF should post 575ish AB each.
VMart garners many more than more C, so being generous I'll give him 525. The 'typical replacement C only gets around 400. If I plug your in numbers (below) I get averages that are closer than the .294 vs .289 youre espousing. I get .2928(VMart+OF) to .2915(Bay+C). I'm a big VMart proponent but I think (mainly for the resons other's mentioned) that your take has some holes. The gap between a Bay and the OF avail later exceeds the Gap between VMart and middle of the road C's
edited to point out theseVVV were your numbers
Vmart: .305 25 90 85 0+ average of: .282 21 77 80 12 = .294 46 167 165 12