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Big Bat Strategy...

Postby intense » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:07 pm

I was doing my 2nd mock draft today. It was a roto 12 man format. I came across a strategy that I think I will be using for my money leagues.

1) Basically, if you draft 1-4... you take arod/pujols/vlad/teix. I had 5th pick and Teix fell to me. If you are at the end of the swing this will still work in taking 2 big bats such as Bay/Cabrera, ect...

2) The 2nd part of this strategy is taking one of the top pitchers... Santana/Peavy/Pedro/Halladay/Oswalt/Sheets/Carpenter... (this may vary depending on your rankings.)

3) After you have grabbed one of these pitchers in the 2nd or early 3rd, your next picks will be BIG bats. There is enough pitching value deep where you can grab guys like (Conteras,Lackey,Burnett,Beckett, ect in late rounds.) I can name many others but ill just use these guys an example.

4) Grab the best big bats available for the next 2-3 picks (Dunn,Matsui,Berkman,Sheff, ect). Others will be trying to grab guys like Jeter,Crawford,A-Ram ect and filling there positonal players/speed while you keep grabbing the big boppers.

5) You will find the 3b/2b/ss positions will have the top players gone by the time you have a chance to grab them, but you can grab a good player at these positons very late. (you may need to take some speed with the positions such as Lugo or Weeks to offset your SB loss with the big bats.


- This strategy may have been a one time only thing with the way my draft worked out, but it seems like it could be used whenever. Basically it takes into consideration that besides getting 1 top SP, your pitching can be grabbed in the later rounds forming a solid squad. There is enough depth in the 2b/3b/ss positions where a middle infield can still be effectively picked in the late rounds if one of your big bats is not a guy like Utley/Arod/Cabrera, ect.

Here is how my team played out using this strategy.

5th pick overal, 12 man.

1st - Teix... 2nd - Peavy... 3rd - Hafner... 4th - Berkman... 5th - Matsui... 6th - J. Pierre (to make up for that lack of speed.)... 7th - H.Street... 8th - J. Patterson... 9th - Burnett... 10th - Contreras... 11th - Lugo... 12th - Lackey... 13th - Dempster... 14th - Ellis... 15th - Atkins... 16th - Baldelli... 17th - Freel... 18th - McCarthy... 19th - Barrett... 20th - Penny... 21st - Linebrick.


I'd like some feedback about this strategy. Now I have my middle infield is very solid, but I think with this year, you can afford to wait late and grab a guy like Lugo/Ellis really late and still have a solid choice that will be more than made up for by the massive big bats you take early.

thanks
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:26 pm

I think that this is a very good idea and am planning something similar myself although I would live to skip the big SP in the second and replace him w/ a large bat there as well and get one of the SP who are a bit farther down.

I might grab a 3b in the 2nd round, either Wright or ARam though, so I wouldn't discount that position. I think that the second tier of SP is pretty deep so you should be able to do ok waiting for them and then getting a couple of later round guys to fill your staff out. I think that, w/ the exception of Santana, the other SP going early aren't likely to be quite as valuable as the bats in that part of the draft.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:19 pm

I lay out the starting positions for my roster. We have a 25 man team roster with 13 offensive starters and 7 pitcher slots: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, CI, MI, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. So when I rank players, I list 8-10 players I need to grab for each position. I try to grab the top 3 or 5 if possible but if not, then I grab two guys from the next set to cover myself.

Also important is knowing what you need from each category to win your league. I've been keeping the final stats for our league since its inception and know exactly how many HR my team will need to hit for the year in order to win that category. Then I divide this by 13 and get what I need each player to get.
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Postby Grouperman941 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:52 pm

Yoda wrote: Also important is knowing what you need from each category to win your league. I've been keeping the final stats for our league since its inception and know exactly how many HR my team will need to hit for the year in order to win that category. Then I divide this by 13 and get what I need each player to get.



Don't want to derail the thread, but don't you find a lot of variance from year to year as owners manage to meetthe competition??

I do something similar, going for what should typically take third in every category, which would give me 120 points (14-team league).

This year, I hit most of my numbers, but numbers that would have won categories in 2004 were third or worse in 2005.

Most notably was in steals -- When we were lumped closely together late in the year (August) guys managed for speed and we ended up with a really ridiculous number of steals. Ks played out similarly.

On to the topic -- mostly good advice. You can definitely do well in pitching with just one stud, as long as he stays healthy and you stay on top of things. I think WW pitchers is the best way to make a mediocre team good.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:23 pm

Grouperman941 wrote:
Yoda wrote: Also important is knowing what you need from each category to win your league. I've been keeping the final stats for our league since its inception and know exactly how many HR my team will need to hit for the year in order to win that category. Then I divide this by 13 and get what I need each player to get.



Don't want to derail the thread, but don't you find a lot of variance from year to year as owners manage to meetthe competition??

I do something similar, going for what should typically take third in every category, which would give me 120 points (14-team league).

This year, I hit most of my numbers, but numbers that would have won categories in 2004 were third or worse in 2005.

Most notably was in steals -- When we were lumped closely together late in the year (August) guys managed for speed and we ended up with a really ridiculous number of steals. Ks played out similarly.

On to the topic -- mostly good advice. You can definitely do well in pitching with just one stud, as long as he stays healthy and you stay on top of things. I think WW pitchers is the best way to make a mediocre team good.


I have stats over a 6 year span and the numbers do vary from year to year. You are taking the average of the 6 years worth of stats. It's not perfect but it's pretty darn close when you work it out.
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