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Harden? Overrated?

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Postby Zito is God » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:11 pm

So in other words, you're saying his stats are great and you're not picking him cause of injury proneness?

Thats completely different then what you were saying on your first post. I agree he is injury prone, I'm glad you understand his stats are ridiculous, especially for a pitcher his age. His 121 K was in (I believe) 122 IP. Pretty damn good for a pitcher (Not many, if any, starters carry an K/IP ratio, thats more for closers.). The K rate was due ONLY to the injury, otherwise IMO he would have cracked the K/IP ratio.
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:15 pm

i wouldnt call him overrated at all. great young pitcher who's missed some time with injury, but they arent arm/shoulder injuries that are likely to reoccur
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Postby rjforlife » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:17 pm

128 IP.....regardless the K/9 is great, the era and keep dropping, and this kid has just got amazing stuff. no reason he wont continue to perform at top levels when healthy, and if he starts being healthy all season, hes a top 5 starter.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:20 pm

Zito is God wrote:So in other words, you're saying his stats are great and you're not picking him cause of injury proneness?


Injury proneness plus the general tendency for teams (particularly a team w/ a decently deep pen like the As...) to yank him after 6 IP all the time. Of course, if he gets dealt to the Cubs, we could write him down for 200-220 IP but that's not in the cards just yet!!
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Postby Zito is God » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:34 pm

Out of Harden's 19 starts, 11 lasted 6.0 innings or more.

His 7 starts that resulted in him being pulled before the 6th was mostly due to injury rather then poor performance.

Guess who else had 7 starts under 6 IP? Prior: One of the guys you claimed you'd take over Harden.
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Postby StudentOfTheGame » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:57 pm

I watched a ton of Harden's starts last season, and I can recall so many times he was just cruising and he got pulled in the 7th or 8th....They do baby him that's for sure...I dont know if thats the manager's decision or Harden just does not have that much endurance...He only has like 2 or three complete games his entire career, but I believe in him.....I can see him having a dominant season...He's ready.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:16 pm

Zito is God wrote:Out of Harden's 19 starts, 11 lasted 6.0 innings or more.

His 7 starts that resulted in him being pulled before the 6th was mostly due to injury rather then poor performance.

Guess who else had 7 starts under 6 IP? Prior: One of the guys you claimed you'd take over Harden.



sorry, I meant to say that I suspect that they will do more of that THIS year, to make sure that he's fully recovered, doesn't have any issues due to workload, etc.

I think that that can backfire as, as StudentoftheGame has pointed out, by the 7th inning, some guys are rolling right along and don't need to come out. Similarly if they decide to postpone starts, toss in extra days of rest or whatever, that can also disrupt a pitcher's rhythym. While that's going on, you might not really hear ANYTHING from the As about what they are doing but, from a fantasy perspective, you will miss starts, have to troll the waiver wire for some backup SP type of deal if you are losing Ks, wonder what's going on, etc.

If he's going in the 4th or 5th or 6th round, I'd prefer to get somebody w/o any question marks. It's not a BIG question mark and I said before I suspect it'll be no big deal and he may be fine, win the Cy Young, go 19-5 or whatever but I am just leery of it and there's a bunch of SP out there. I will pass on Prior for the same reasons but would take him first if I was going to take either of them. I don't know why but freakish collisions/ hit by liners don't bug me as much as a surgically repaired shoulder muscle. We need to find some doctors around here so we can get better injury info...
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Postby Zito is God » Wed Feb 22, 2006 7:56 pm

Do you have any reason to believe the As staff will be pulled early?

If anything, harden had a full offseason to recover and Beane is likely not worried. if he is, all will be answered in spring training (in terms of endurance, I obviously am one to not believe SP stats) and Harden does not have a REASON to be pulled early.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:03 pm

Nope, no hard evidence, just a hunch that he'll be slower getting back to 100% than we can guess and that if/ when he comes back, it will take him some time, during which he will be used less aggressively than he would be if he were 100%. Which would = reduced numbers. Even a slight reduction is not worth risking in that general draft area.
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Postby Zito is God » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:11 pm

I remember when I had a "hunch" about Santana 2 years ago in my first annual "In Need of Explanations..." thread... you all know where that hunch ended up...
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