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Dave Luciani's (BB NOTEBOOK) projection for Miguel Cabrera.

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Dave Luciani's (BB NOTEBOOK) projection for Miguel Cabrera.

Postby kemper5 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:32 pm

I've been a subcriber of Baseball Notbook for 2 years now, and like Dave's work. His projections helped me alot in my HTH league last season. But he's perplexed me this year with Miguel Carbera. He's expecting an absolute monster season from him to the tune of .325 BA, 37 HR, 125 RBI, 104 Run, 204 Hit, 79 BB's.. I understand this guy is a great hitter, but Ive got to totally disagree with these numbers. With the lineup around Miguel (Ed Reed and Pokey Reese in front and Hermida and Jacobs behind him) where is he going to come up with 125 RBI's, 104 runs.. ect ect.. I see more of a 28 HR, 95 RBI, 90 Run, 175 Hit, 60 BB's, .305 type season.. Where do you stand on Cabrera?
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Postby diesel99xx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:35 pm

Somewhere between the 2 projections, closer to yours though. If the youngsters can find a way to get on base then maybe he can increase your projections some.
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Dave Luciani's (BB NOTEBOOK) projection for Miguel Cabrera.

Postby kemper5 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:37 pm

Besides Cabrera and Reese, does anyone else have over 20 games experience in the Majors? I truely think not, I see the Marlins losing 90 - 100 games and averaging about 4500 people per game.. Poor souls. Come to think of it (I know we have some great minds here) has there ever been a player (hitter) to post a monster season while surrounded almost 100% by rookies?
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:46 pm

You will find dozens of Cabrera projections and discussions in this forum. Please do a search before posting another one.

Thanks.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:46 pm

The Marlins have the youngest team in the majors this year but, in some cases, they've got some interesting guys w/ upside like Hermida and Willingham so perhaps things will come together a bit? 125 RBI is a bit wishful I think though...
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Dave Luciani's (BB NOTEBOOK) projection for Miguel Cabrera.

Postby kemper5 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:56 pm

Yoda wrote:You will find dozens of Cabrera projections and discussions in this forum. Please do a search before posting another one.

Thanks.


I tried a specific search for BB Notebooks projections on Cabrera and found none.

Thanks
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Feb 22, 2006 4:37 pm

I agree that the RBI totals are very optimistic considering the entire Marlins offense. The batting average may also be a little aggressive but otherwise the projection doesn't seem too bad to me. Despite the Marlins situation I still think .300/30/100/100 is very likely and although I wouldn't pay for it during the draft would it really surprise anyone if Miggy got near the 40 HR mark this year?
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Postby diesel99xx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:22 pm

Just to think of a player who went through this recently....

Todd Helton last year....High AVG, low HR(bad back), low rbi......

He had an entire young lineup, but not as raw as the Marlins this year
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Dave Luciani's (BB NOTEBOOK) projection for Miguel Cabrera.

Postby kemper5 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:28 pm

diesel99xx wrote:Just to think of a player who went through this recently....

Todd Helton last year....High AVG, low HR(bad back), low rbi......

He had an entire young lineup, but not as raw as the Marlins this year


Good point! I see Cabrera back to his 35, 115, .300 levels in a year or 2 when the team matures around him, but I think this year he will slip to the 25-28 HR, 90-95 RBI, low .300's level
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Postby rw_26 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:03 pm

Yoda wrote:You will find dozens of Cabrera projections and discussions in this forum. Please do a search before posting another one.

Thanks.


Who the hell are you supposed to be? There are no Cabrera threads on the front page. Why should he have to do a search? The fact that 3 people gave POSITIVE responses to his post proves it was a worthwile thread.
Good post Kemper. I think people are over-analyzing the fact that Cabrera has young players around him. The fact is, noone knows for sure how they will do. They may surprise some people. I expect a stud like Cabrera to still get his numbers regardless. It's not like he is going to be treated like Bonds.
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