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Any reason to worry about Vlad?

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Postby hoopitup21212 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 12:46 pm

Phatferd wrote:
dannyolbb wrote:No, I'm wary of him this year as well. I can't say exactly why. Maybe it's because he's 30 or maybe it's because he has no supporting cast or maybe it's because of some vague injury concerns, but he'll go too early for me this year.


No supporting cast? That's a little over the top don't you think? The team didn't lose anybody from the offense last year and this team went to the ALCS. I think you have to have some offense to reach the ALCS.

They were 6th in the AL in BA and 7th in Runs, thats right in the midde. I'm not saying they were great, but its not like he has no supporting cast.



Well its a new season, anything can happen. Vlad betting at 4th in the order I dont think it will matter much. Nor do I think his value would drop. Vlad will be Vlad ;-D ;-D
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 12:55 pm

I'm more concerned about the wheels falling off his bus. I don't really have any evidence but he looked pretty pathetic in the playoffs last year. Maybe it was just a short slump at the wrong time but I'd be leery of taking him before the end of the first round, at which time, there are younger studs who don't have histories of back injuries that are draftable too. Tough call. Fortunately, drafting 8/10 in our office money league, I'm anticipating he'll be off the board... :-)
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Postby Art Vandelay » Wed Feb 22, 2006 12:56 pm

Yoda wrote:Projecting a stud player based on lineup support is complete BS IMO.


I agree. He didn't have any support in Montreal either, but seemed to do ok.
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Postby zhutou » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:16 pm

i'm wary of him as well. last year i took him 3rd overall and then ended up trading him for beltran/hafner before the season started. thankfully vlad didn't do that well, because beltran was just :-P
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Postby stumpak » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:59 pm

It is not BS to project on line-ups. I agree that a stud player is not impacted very much in terms of OPS stats whether he has Babe Ruth or Buddy Bianculana hitting in front of him.

However, I would like to hear your arguement on how the rest of the line-up has no effect on Rs and RBIs. Last I checked this was 40% of of the offensive value of a player in a 5x5 format. I would just caution that anyone who is expecting big run produciton numbers from Vald may want to consider that unliker previous years the guys who will be knocking him in are the declining and injury prone Garrett Anderson and Juan Rivera, who is quite feeble for a #5 hitter.

If line-up are not BS, are going to tell me that M. Cabrera has the same value playing for the Marlins that he would for the Rangers?
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Postby Slow Pitch » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:06 pm

You people are CRAZY! Vlad will be just fine....wheels falling off cause he is 30...what a stupid comment.
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:11 pm

Slow Pitch wrote:You people are CRAZY! Vlad will be just fine....wheels falling off cause he is 30...what a stupid comment.


Yea I don't think the wheels are falling off.
however, he is such an erratic swinger that I could see him hitting 20 hr's or 60 depending on his luck
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:45 pm

I don't worry about the wheels falling off b/c he's 30, I worry about the wheels falling off b/c he had back surgery!! A herniated disc can be repaired but it's not a walk in the park for many people and has a reasonably high frequency of complications/ challenges. Stenosis was one 'issue' that was noted in the BP Article on the topic and you will note that it suggests "over a 5-year period of time the results tend to deteriorate" which is due to arthritis in the spine. I certainly hope Vlad keeps jacking them out but, when picking between a guy w/ a back injury and a guy w/ no problems, I'd give at least a bump to a healthier guy.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:48 pm

stumpak wrote:It is not BS to project on line-ups. I agree that a stud player is not impacted very much in terms of OPS stats whether he has Babe Ruth or Buddy Bianculana hitting in front of him.

However, I would like to hear your arguement on how the rest of the line-up has no effect on Rs and RBIs. Last I checked this was 40% of of the offensive value of a player in a 5x5 format. I would just caution that anyone who is expecting big run produciton numbers from Vald may want to consider that unliker previous years the guys who will be knocking him in are the declining and injury prone Garrett Anderson and Juan Rivera, who is quite feeble for a #5 hitter.

If line-up are not BS, are going to tell me that M. Cabrera has the same value playing for the Marlins that he would for the Rangers?


It is complete BS to discount or upgrade players like Vlad or MCab who have proven they can carry an offense by themselves to say they will not be productive due to lineup support. Bonds has been on the same boat. Do you see those guys falling off because Juan Pierre is not in the lineup? Please.

If you want to argue ball parks, that is something we can factor in but when people prove they can perform at the highest level like these guys do, it doesn't matter as much as it does for marginal players who need all the help they can get.

Did Pujols have an off year in 05 with Rolen down, Edmonds, Sanders hurting? I don't think so.
Last edited by Yoda on Wed Feb 22, 2006 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Iconoclastic » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:59 pm

The only thing I'd be worried about is him not falling to me at the 4th pick.
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