I am recognizing the risk in being confident in Hermida being a quality hitter this year and risk in believing Cabrera will do as well or better than last season. My money is on a similar value from Cabrera this year as last, however I'm finding some risks in that.
Castillo comparable to Hemida? No, Hermida is not the contact hitter Castillo is, Castillo doesn't take as many walks, Hermida has more power, Castillo is likely to have a higher OBP ect..
My post was directed at you. I'm sorry I didn't make that more clear.
You say that Hermida isn't the contact hitter that Castillo is. The fact is, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that Hermida is extremely adept at getting on-base. In other words, he doesn't make outs. It doesn't matter if a player gets to first with a single or a walk. The bottom line is this: with Hermida hitting in front of him, Cabrera should have a very similar number of RBI opportunities as he did in 2006. Any kind of production we see out of Hermida beyond the OBP is icing on the cake.
The truth is Castillo is mostly a singles hitter who only stole 10 bases last season. He's got an above average OBP, but nothing special. It's not like the Marlins are trying to replace Barry Bonds in the lineup. Castillo is decent at best.
In Hermida, you're talking about a guy who posted a .457 OBP and led the league in walks with 111 in AA Carolina last year at 21 years old. In 4 years in the minors, he has posted a .399 OBP. While the power numbers he showed in the majors might be a fluke, the OBP is going to be there. That's all we're concerned with right now in discussing Miguel Cabrera's value for 2006. I feel like I'm beating a dead horse with Hermida. I am confident that he can post a number very close to Castillo's .391 OBP mark in 2006. Look at his minor league numbers and his age, and you'll see why most people are projecting a .400+ OBP in 2006 for this kid. He's got talent.
Castillo has/had about 15 points in OPB on Hermida. Hermida's equivalent OBP in the minors were .345, .345 and .406; .383 in 47 MLB PA in which he "overperfomed" (he will not hit 45 HR). PECOTA has Hermida at .361 OBP, I'm not sure who would be 40+ points over that. Sure he has talent, but not like Cabrera, Vlade or Pujols. I'm questioning the "collapse rate" of Hermida, not the improve or breakout rate.
beltrans_boy wrote:But, I don't want to get off topic. This discussion is about Cabrera, and how he will fare in 2006.
nuggets wrote:Most (all?) of the hitters who have succeeded in poor parks with poor hitters surrounding them (Bay, 91 games in AAA) have had more time to develop under better conditions or are extremely talented like Pujols and Guererro.
Cabrera deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Pujols and Guerrero in terms of pure talent when it comes to hitting a baseball. I'm still not sure why you're talking about minor league numbers. They have no relevance to this discussion. Cabrera has shown that he can hit major league pitching, and it has nothing to do with lineup protection. He IS extremely talented like Pujols and Guerrero.
What point are you trying to make? There are risks with any player in fantasy baseball. Look at Beltran, Guerrero, Tejada last season. Is Cabrera a risk? Sure, but so is Jason Bay, David Wright and any other player you'd draft around Cabrera. There is overwhelming evidence to support my case that Cabrera will have a similar (or better) value than he did in 2005. I see no reasons to temper my expectations.
I was referring to Hermida in that quote.
On another note, Cabrera does not have the eye of Pujols or the contact ability of Vlade and doesn't not have either in BB:K rate. As of now he is just below Vlade's and Pujols' class. BB, you're not reading everything, how many times to I have to say it? My money is on MCAB producing equal or better to last years value this upcoming season, there is simply more risk involved than I thought previously.
I'm having second thoughs on MCab being as good as believed by the "linup protection doesn't matter" camp. Exhibit A.
Exibit B: It seems people are pretty high on Hermida and feel he'll provide decent OBP and/or protection for Cabrera. I think he's a good hitter, but he's coming straight from AA. I'm not sure he isn't a good flop candidate. Is he really in that class of hitter, like Vlade, who went from AA to success? Even A-Rod stopped in AAA, for 32 games, Helton for one and a half seasons, Bonds for 44 games and a more comparable hitter like Paul O'Neill played a good amount of AAA ball before coming to the bigs.
The small sample size of his MLB experience (47 PA) isn't enough to garuanteed him success. The only good pitchers he faced were Patterson (1/3, 1K, 0 BB), Myers (0/3, 3K, O BB) and Farnsworth (0/1, K, 1 BB).
I see a reasonable chance of Hermida flopping and Cabrera producing more like he did the in last 3 monts of last season than he did in his first three.