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Postby Yoda » Mon Mar 06, 2006 10:36 pm

nuggets wrote:Bay is about all Cab has going for him. Vlade is a totally different hitter, he does not apply.


There are a ton of other super star players who have done it without adequate support. What about Bonds? What type of protection has he had in SF besides Kent for a few years? Brian Giles in his peak in PIT? Beltran in KC? Damon in KC? Crawford in TB? Abreu in PHI years ago?

I agree his RBI, R numbers will slightly be less as a result of the firesale but to expect someone like Miggy to be a lesser player is pretty ridiculous.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Mar 06, 2006 11:27 pm

You guys are undervaluing Hermida as a major league caliber hitter.

Compare Hermida to Castillo (who was hitting in front of Cabrera last year). Hermida is slated to bat in front of Cabrera this year. They are VERY similar hitters, except Hermida is better with more power and less speed. While Hermida won't be a star in the league for a few years, his batting eye is incredible. He works deep into counts, and has decent speed on the bases. He's a high-OBP place-setter for Cabrera, which is exactly what produces RBI. HERMIDA GETS ON BASE, always has, always will.

You can argue all you want. The simple fact is that history does not back up your statements. There are COUNTLESS players who have put up excellent numbers in terrible lineups. Major League pitchers will NOT walk a player unless first base is open and there is a man on base, or your name is Barry Bonds. They will challenge Cabrera, and he will respond accordingly. Draft with confidence.

This is just another example of over-analysis at the Cafe. If Cabrera has a bad year, it's not because of the lineup. Obviously his run numbers are going to suffer a little, but the AVG, RBI and HR totals should be there. He's still a top-15 player. Easily.

;-D
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Postby nuggets » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:09 am

Yoda wrote:
nuggets wrote:Bay is about all Cab has going for him. Vlade is a totally different hitter, he does not apply.


There are a ton of other super star players who have done it without adequate support. What about Bonds? What type of protection has he had in SF besides Kent for a few years? Brian Giles in his peak in PIT? Beltran in KC? Damon in KC? Crawford in TB? Abreu in PHI years ago?

I agree his RBI, R numbers will slightly be less as a result of the firesale but to expect someone like Miggy to be a lesser player is pretty ridiculous.


Did you read my main points on page one? Bonds had a more proper progression to the majors, stopping in AAA a for 44 games.

Giles played hundreds of AAA games befor being called up.

Beltran was sent downt to 3A.

Abreu played two season at 3A.

Craford 85 games in 3A.

Damon had amazing minors stats, significantly better than Hermida. He is the outlier in your example, up to the Royals from AA midway through the season. He didn't produce nearly as much for those first two and a half seasons as he did from there on out.

Hermida's minors numbers are good, but not that good. He's not going to be a Pujols or Vlade, of whom didn't need signficant AAA ball to develop. He's more of a Bernie Williams or Paul O'neil, both of which had more minor league time.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:15 am

beltrans_boy wrote:You guys are undervaluing Hermida as a major league caliber hitter.

Compare Hermida to Castillo (who was hitting in front of Cabrera last year). Hermida is slated to bat in front of Cabrera this year. They are VERY similar hitters, except Hermida is better with more power and less speed. While Hermida won't be a star in the league for a few years, his batting eye is incredible. He works deep into counts, and has decent speed on the bases. He's a high-OBP place-setter for Cabrera, which is exactly what produces RBI. HERMIDA GETS ON BASE, always has, always will.

You can argue all you want. The simple fact is that history does not back up your statements. There are COUNTLESS players who have put up excellent numbers in terrible lineups. Major League pitchers will NOT walk a player unless first base is open and there is a man on base, or your name is Barry Bonds. They will challenge Cabrera, and he will respond accordingly. Draft with confidence.

This is just another example of over-analysis at the Cafe. If Cabrera has a bad year, it's not because of the lineup. Obviously his run numbers are going to suffer a little, but the AVG, RBI and HR totals should be there. He's still a top-15 player. Easily.

;-D


Really? Not that I disagree as a general rule on this as good hitters will hit no matter what stiffs are around them, but your pen name himself (aka Beltran) in a lineup that included Floyd and Wright last year, could not hit a lick and was the #1 fantasy bust and lack of protection was often used as an "Excuse" by many of his apologists then as to one of the main reasons. Just as better protection is used as a rationale as to why he will not blow this year. You can't have it both ways.

Either lack protection hurts a player's numbers or it doesn't appreciably and you can't go around choosing who the rule applies to to fit the preferred, pre-conceived slanting of an argument.


Beltran had leg problems (yet his power blows)...no its the stadium...no its the NL East...no he has no protection...no he has to adjust to the pressure of them pennant chasing 05 Mets... Just what was it?


MCab is going to hit. To think his RBIs and HRs are not going to take some sort of a hit with no protection is delusional imo. Unless you feel all these prospects like Hermida tear up the league in 06...which is possible, just not very likely.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:19 am

nuggets wrote:
Yoda wrote:
nuggets wrote:Bay is about all Cab has going for him. Vlade is a totally different hitter, he does not apply.


There are a ton of other super star players who have done it without adequate support. What about Bonds? What type of protection has he had in SF besides Kent for a few years? Brian Giles in his peak in PIT? Beltran in KC? Damon in KC? Crawford in TB? Abreu in PHI years ago?

I agree his RBI, R numbers will slightly be less as a result of the firesale but to expect someone like Miggy to be a lesser player is pretty ridiculous.


Did you read my main points on page one? Bonds had a more proper progression to the majors, stopping in AAA a for 44 games.

Giles played hundreds of AAA games befor being called up.

Beltran was sent downt to 3A.

Abreu played two season at 3A.

Craford 85 games in 3A.

Damon had amazing minors stats, significantly better than Hermida. He is the outlier in your example, up to the Royals from AA midway through the season. He didn't produce nearly as much for those first two and a half seasons as he did from there on out.

Hermida's minors numbers are good, but not that good. He's not going to be a Pujols or Vlade, of whom didn't need signficant AAA ball to develop. He's more of a Bernie Williams or Paul O'neil, both of which had more minor league time.


1) Nobody's saying he's Pujols or Guerrero. Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams both had EXCELLENT major league careers. I don't even know if Hermida can live up to that expectation yet. I DO know that he has a history of high OBP and an excellent batting eye, which ought to translate fairly easily to the major leagues in 2006. That high OBP hitting in front of Cabrera will help his RBI numbers (or at least stabalize them), and that's what this thread is all about. Nobody is talking about Hermida as a HOFer, but the history doesn't lie. The man knows how to get on base.

2) Your points about Cabrera's lack of experience are ridiculous. Not only has he shown that he can hit at the major league level, he has shown he is one of the best hitters in the majors. Minor league development is just that, development. Cabrera already knows how to hit major league pitching. Whether or not he spent a long time in AAA is irrelevant. How does it relate to his 2006 performance?

I'm not sure if I understand your point...
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Postby Yoda » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:19 am

nuggets wrote:
Yoda wrote:
nuggets wrote:Bay is about all Cab has going for him. Vlade is a totally different hitter, he does not apply.


There are a ton of other super star players who have done it without adequate support. What about Bonds? What type of protection has he had in SF besides Kent for a few years? Brian Giles in his peak in PIT? Beltran in KC? Damon in KC? Crawford in TB? Abreu in PHI years ago?

I agree his RBI, R numbers will slightly be less as a result of the firesale but to expect someone like Miggy to be a lesser player is pretty ridiculous.


Did you read my main points on page one? Bonds had a more proper progression to the majors, stopping in AAA a for 44 games.

Giles played hundreds of AAA games befor being called up.

Beltran was sent downt to 3A.

Abreu played two season at 3A.

Craford 85 games in 3A.

Damon had amazing minors stats, significantly better than Hermida. He is the outlier in your example, up to the Royals from AA midway through the season. He didn't produce nearly as much for those first two and a half seasons as he did from there on out.

Hermida's minors numbers are good, but not that good. He's not going to be a Pujols or Vlade, of whom didn't need signficant AAA ball to develop. He's more of a Bernie Williams or Paul O'neil, both of which had more minor league time.


Dude what are you smoking? THis thread is about MCab and why he doesn't need protection. I was comparing MCab to Bonds, Vlad, Beltran, Giles, etc. Not Hermida. :-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:24 am

TheYanks04 wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:You guys are undervaluing Hermida as a major league caliber hitter.

Compare Hermida to Castillo (who was hitting in front of Cabrera last year). Hermida is slated to bat in front of Cabrera this year. They are VERY similar hitters, except Hermida is better with more power and less speed. While Hermida won't be a star in the league for a few years, his batting eye is incredible. He works deep into counts, and has decent speed on the bases. He's a high-OBP place-setter for Cabrera, which is exactly what produces RBI. HERMIDA GETS ON BASE, always has, always will.

You can argue all you want. The simple fact is that history does not back up your statements. There are COUNTLESS players who have put up excellent numbers in terrible lineups. Major League pitchers will NOT walk a player unless first base is open and there is a man on base, or your name is Barry Bonds. They will challenge Cabrera, and he will respond accordingly. Draft with confidence.

This is just another example of over-analysis at the Cafe. If Cabrera has a bad year, it's not because of the lineup. Obviously his run numbers are going to suffer a little, but the AVG, RBI and HR totals should be there. He's still a top-15 player. Easily.

;-D


Really? Not that I disagree as a general rule on this as good hitters will hit no matter what stiffs are around them, but your pen name himself (aka Beltran) in a lineup that included Floyd and Wright last year, could not hit a lick and was the #1 fantasy bust and lack of protection was often used as an "Excuse" by many of his apologists then as to one of the main reasons. Just as better protection is used as a rationale as to why he will not blow this year. You can't have it both ways.

Either lack protection hurts a player's numbers or it doesn't appreciably and you can't go around choosing who the rule applies to to fit the preferred, pre-conceived slanting of an argument.


Beltran had leg problems (yet his power blows)...no its the stadium...no its the NL East...no he has no protection...no he has to adjust to the pressure of them pennant chasing 05 Mets... Just what was it?


MCab is going to hit. To think his RBIs and HRs are not going to take some sort of a hit with no protection is delusional imo. Unless you feel all these prospects like Hermida tear up the league in 06...which is possible, just not very likely.


Anybody who cites lineup protection as the reason for Beltran's struggles in 2006 doesn't know what they're talking about. This guy put up ridiculous numbers in Kansas City. I'm not going to pretend that I know what his problem was, but I am fairly confident it had nothing to do with his lineup. All the Beltran apologists need to understand that. Lineup protection is a myth across the board, not just in select circumstances.

I can't make excuses for Beltran. Maybe it was the injury? Maybe it was the contract? Maybe it was New York? Bottom line is, he didn't produce. I don't know why we're talking about Beltran. I'm certainly not a Beltran apologist. My username is kind of outdated, so I apologize.

;-D
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:29 am

beltrans_boy wrote:You guys are undervaluing Hermida as a major league caliber hitter.

Compare Hermida to Castillo (who was hitting in front of Cabrera last year). Hermida is slated to bat in front of Cabrera this year. They are VERY similar hitters, except Hermida is better with more power and less speed. While Hermida won't be a star in the league for a few years, his batting eye is incredible. He works deep into counts, and has decent speed on the bases. He's a high-OBP place-setter for Cabrera, which is exactly what produces RBI. HERMIDA GETS ON BASE, always has, always will.

You can argue all you want. The simple fact is that history does not back up your statements. There are COUNTLESS players who have put up excellent numbers in terrible lineups. Major League pitchers will NOT walk a player unless first base is open and there is a man on base, or your name is Barry Bonds. They will challenge Cabrera, and he will respond accordingly. Draft with confidence.

This is just another example of over-analysis at the Cafe. If Cabrera has a bad year, it's not because of the lineup. Obviously his run numbers are going to suffer a little, but the AVG, RBI and HR totals should be there. He's still a top-15 player. Easily.

;-D


Hope you're right...I've got M-Cab and Hermida in my money league... ;-D
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Postby nuggets » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:44 am

beltrans_boy wrote:You guys are undervaluing Hermida as a major league caliber hitter.

Compare Hermida to Castillo (who was hitting in front of Cabrera last year). Hermida is slated to bat in front of Cabrera this year. They are VERY similar hitters, except Hermida is better with more power and less speed. While Hermida won't be a star in the league for a few years, his batting eye is incredible. He works deep into counts, and has decent speed on the bases. He's a high-OBP place-setter for Cabrera, which is exactly what produces RBI. HERMIDA GETS ON BASE, always has, always will.

You can argue all you want. The simple fact is that history does not back up your statements. There are COUNTLESS players who have put up excellent numbers in terrible lineups. Major League pitchers will NOT walk a player unless first base is open and there is a man on base, or your name is Barry Bonds. They will challenge Cabrera, and he will respond accordingly. Draft with confidence.

This is just another example of over-analysis at the Cafe. If Cabrera has a bad year, it's not because of the lineup. Obviously his run numbers are going to suffer a little, but the AVG, RBI and HR totals should be there. He's still a top-15 player. Easily.

;-D


Who are you talking to?

I am recognizing the risk in being confident in Hermida being a quality hitter this year and risk in believing Cabrera will do as well or better than last season. My money is on a similar value from Cabrera this year as last, however I'm finding some risks in that.

Castillo comparable to Hemida? No, Hermida is not the contact hitter Castillo is, Castillo doesn't take as many walks, Hermida has more power, Castillo is likely to have a higher OBP ect..

Most (all?) of the hitters who have succeeded in poor parks with poor hitters surrounding them (Bay, 91 games in AAA) have had more time to develop under better conditions or are extremely talented like Pujols and Guererro.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:01 am

nuggets wrote:Who are you talking to?

I am recognizing the risk in being confident in Hermida being a quality hitter this year and risk in believing Cabrera will do as well or better than last season. My money is on a similar value from Cabrera this year as last, however I'm finding some risks in that.

Castillo comparable to Hemida? No, Hermida is not the contact hitter Castillo is, Castillo doesn't take as many walks, Hermida has more power, Castillo is likely to have a higher OBP ect..


My post was directed at you. I'm sorry I didn't make that more clear.

You say that Hermida isn't the contact hitter that Castillo is. The fact is, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that Hermida is extremely adept at getting on-base. In other words, he doesn't make outs. It doesn't matter if a player gets to first with a single or a walk. The bottom line is this: with Hermida hitting in front of him, Cabrera should have a very similar number of RBI opportunities as he did in 2006. Any kind of production we see out of Hermida beyond the OBP is icing on the cake.

The truth is Castillo is mostly a singles hitter who only stole 10 bases last season. He's got an above average OBP, but nothing special. It's not like the Marlins are trying to replace Barry Bonds in the lineup. Castillo is decent at best.

In Hermida, you're talking about a guy who posted a .457 OBP and led the league in walks with 111 in AA Carolina last year at 21 years old. In 4 years in the minors, he has posted a .399 OBP. While the power numbers he showed in the majors might be a fluke, the OBP is going to be there. That's all we're concerned with right now in discussing Miguel Cabrera's value for 2006. I feel like I'm beating a dead horse with Hermida. I am confident that he can post a number very close to Castillo's .391 OBP mark in 2006. Look at his minor league numbers and his age, and you'll see why most people are projecting a .400+ OBP in 2006 for this kid. He's got talent.

But, I don't want to get off topic. This discussion is about Cabrera, and how he will fare in 2006.

nuggets wrote:Most (all?) of the hitters who have succeeded in poor parks with poor hitters surrounding them (Bay, 91 games in AAA) have had more time to develop under better conditions or are extremely talented like Pujols and Guererro.


Cabrera deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Pujols and Guerrero in terms of pure talent when it comes to hitting a baseball. I'm still not sure why you're talking about minor league numbers. They have no relevance to this discussion. Cabrera has shown that he can hit major league pitching, and it has nothing to do with lineup protection. He IS extremely talented like Pujols and Guerrero.

What point are you trying to make? There are risks with any player in fantasy baseball. Look at Beltran, Guerrero, Tejada last season. Is Cabrera a risk? Sure, but so is Jason Bay, David Wright and any other player you'd draft around Cabrera. There is overwhelming evidence to support my case that Cabrera will have a similar (or better) value than he did in 2005. I see no reasons to temper my expectations.
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