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Is Bay first round material?

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Is Bay first round material?

Postby Zito is God » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:11 pm

I had the 12th pick in my public league. I took Bay and Wright. Good choice?

I read up on Bay and it seems he is a definite number 1 pick, especially since he provides ALL 5 categories, also his constant improvement over the last 3 years. Any good discussion for or against this view?

For that matter, did I do the right thing with Wright?
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Postby tal1286 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:21 pm

I think Bay is at his ceiling. It would be very difficult for him to improve on last season's numbers although I suppose he could. It would make him an absolute fantasy monster. In any case, I would agree that Bay and Wright were good picks there. I got bay with pick 14 and wright went at pick 10 in my 12 teamer on yahoo so basically it is personal opinion that determines whether bay is a late 1st rounder or early second rounder...in my...opinion.
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Postby bucksox » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:22 pm

I think you made some good picks there. What's great about them both is that they possess the power but also add that element of speed which puts them over your protypical .300-30-100 guy or even a 40hr hitter who can't run to save their lives.
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:34 pm

I don't know. I am a little skeptical ala Aaron Rowand.

David Luciani on Baseballnotebook.com wrote:Bay had a contact rate of about 76% last year - that is, about 76% of his at bats ended with him putting the ball in play. . . Bay's contact rate in 2004 was just 69% and in the minors in 2003 and 2002, his translated contact rate was 71% and 72% respectively. I'm projecting a 2006 contact rate more in line with what he did from 2002-2004 and that's at the heart of the drop in projected batting average.


Seems like a regression to the mean here. Also for SB.

David Luciani on Baseballnotebook.com wrote:If you look, you'll see he was successful in 21 out of 22 stolen base attempts. Even if he were to run at the same rate as he did in 2005, and that's unlikely as stolen base attempts typically decline as a player ages (even one who is only twenty-seven), it's almost impossible to sustain that sort of stolen base success rate over the long-term. Ironically, I think Bay has the speed to run much more but won't. That is, he's the sort of player who, if given the green light, could steal even more bases. However, if I'm right that he's not about to get a constant green light, let's pretend for a moment that he ends up with even the same number of stolen base attempts in 2006 as he did in 2005 (22). A great base-stealer would be successful in about 75-80% of those and that would drop his total to around 16-18 steals rather than the 21 he had.


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Postby baseball6791 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:44 pm

I love Bay, I think he has the potential to be at 310/35/20 which is just monstrous, I also love the Bay/Wright at the end of the first round - probably my favorite set of 1-2 picks ;-D
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Postby Ender » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:44 pm

I think Bay is a borderline 1st round pick. It really depends on who else is out there who I would take. Having said that a combo of Wright/Bay is very nice on a team. You get a nice 30+ SB to go with a ton of power, good R/RBI and nice average. You could certainly do worse.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:50 pm

I would be very happy to get Bay and Wright with the bookend picks. ;-D
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Re: Is Bay first round material?

Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:57 pm

Zito is God wrote:I had the 12th pick in my public league. I took Bay and Wright. Good choice?

I read up on Bay and it seems he is a definite number 1 pick, especially since he provides ALL 5 categories, also his constant improvement over the last 3 years. Any good discussion for or against this view?

For that matter, did I do the right thing with Wright?


Those were very good picks. In my 10 team league, I'm hoping Bay/Wright/MCab will still be around when I pick last.

Bay is at his peak and he should be able to sustain his numbers for a couple years at least. The biggest question mark for me heading into 05 was his Ks.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... -bay.shtml

Bay was one of only 7 players who had at least 100 R, 100 RBI, 30 HR, .300 BA and .900 OPS.

Lee
Pujols
Cabrera
Arod
Bay
Teixeira
Ortiz

Bay clearly had the least support out of the players above. Throw in his age and speed, he is a first rounder. People may say that they want to see him do it again but his minor league numbers support his case.
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Postby stevethumb » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:01 am

excellent picks and who could possibly have been better at that point in the draft ?!
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:04 am

Abreu is still a safer pick in that park. Crawford is viable though I think thats too SB heavy. Any number of position scarcity guys like Young, Tejada. D. Lee if he hasn't gone, he has been falling to late 1st round in some drafts and even 2nd round in a couple(rightfully so in my opinion). There are plenty of options at 12/13, it all just depends on who already got picked.

I am about to start a draft and I got 12th position and to be honest if the same players are there for me I'll probably go Wright and Bay as well, so I'm certainly not saying you were wrong to take them. I just think its not 100% clear cut. Just to rant a little, I'm going on 15 drafts in the past 3 years now and I've NEVER had better than a 7th pick, the fantasy gods hate me!
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