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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:36 am

rjforlife wrote:i dont see any reason why harden wont win 17 games in 33 starts. he won 10 in 19 starts last season and that was a down year for chavy, they didnt have frank thomas, and street wasnt the closer for a portion of the time harden was pitching. with a 2.5-3.00 era its not that tough to win 17 games anyways. ill stand by my prediction.


Chavez could easily have a worse year and Frank could easily not play so much as you mention. If Harden started 30 times last year, proportionately, that's still not 17 wins.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:45 am

Something to keep in mind when comparing Harden to Peavy is that they are both 24 and are equally likely to improve. Harden may get more wins due to his rotation slot, but I think the AL West has improved slightly. I'd take Peavy in front of Harden because he's done it twice (led league in ERA, then strikeouts), and because Peavy's w/9 and h/9 have decreased in every MLB season, and his k/9 have increased in every season.

I think Harden can perform in the top five this season, but I'd temper your expectations.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:12 am

davidmarver wrote:Something to keep in mind when comparing Harden to Peavy is that they are both 24 and are equally likely to improve. Harden may get more wins due to his rotation slot, but I think the AL West has improved slightly. I'd take Peavy in front of Harden because he's done it twice (led league in ERA, then strikeouts), and because Peavy's w/9 and h/9 have decreased in every MLB season, and his k/9 have increased in every season.

I think Harden can perform in the top five this season, but I'd temper your expectations.


Yeah I wouldn't bet Harden to put up better numbers than Peavy. Although it will probably end up being very close, Peavy is the safer bet.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:19 am

StudentOfTheGame wrote:Harden put up alot better numbers than Sheets when he pitched last year....Personally, I like him better than Sheets and Pedro(will be effective, but not as dominant as years past) this season.


I'll take Sheets 2004 over Harden's potential this year any day of the week. They are both injury question marks but I personally still like Sheets more than Harden. Harden's ERA was flukely last year too, just like Halladay's. No way he keeps up a 26% hit rate and 78% strand rate consistantly.

Harden is still a great pitcher and is a solid #1 guy to have, I just don't think he breaks my top 5.
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Postby WittyC » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:33 pm

nuggets wrote:
rjforlife wrote:i dont see any reason why harden wont win 17 games in 33 starts. he won 10 in 19 starts last season and that was a down year for chavy, they didnt have frank thomas, and street wasnt the closer for a portion of the time harden was pitching. with a 2.5-3.00 era its not that tough to win 17 games anyways. ill stand by my prediction.


Chavez could easily have a worse year and Frank could easily not play so much as you mention. If Harden started 30 times last year, proportionately, that's still not 17 wins.


I don't think Chavez' track record and age would point to the fact that he could "easily have a worse year."

That being said, Harden's performance is completely dependant upon his health. However, even with a full season, I wouldn't pencil him in for more than about 13 wins. It's tough to determine what that offense can do for him in terms of run support.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:36 pm

davidmarver wrote:Something to keep in mind when comparing Harden to Peavy is that they are both 24 and are equally likely to improve. Harden may get more wins due to his rotation slot, but I think the AL West has improved slightly. I'd take Peavy in front of Harden because he's done it twice (led league in ERA, then strikeouts), and because Peavy's w/9 and h/9 have decreased in every MLB season, and his k/9 have increased in every season.

I think Harden can perform in the top five this season, but I'd temper your expectations.


BP says Peavy is almost twice as likely to improve and break out. I assume this is because he playin an NL pitchers park, Ks more and BBs fewer than Harden. Peavy didn't lead the league in K, Santana did. 216 isn't very high for the NL lead either.
Last edited by nuggets on Tue Feb 21, 2006 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby WittyC » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:42 pm

nuggets wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Something to keep in mind when comparing Harden to Peavy is that they are both 24 and are equally likely to improve. Harden may get more wins due to his rotation slot, but I think the AL West has improved slightly. I'd take Peavy in front of Harden because he's done it twice (led league in ERA, then strikeouts), and because Peavy's w/9 and h/9 have decreased in every MLB season, and his k/9 have increased in every season.

I think Harden can perform in the top five this season, but I'd temper your expectations.


BP says Peavy is almost twice as likely to improve and break out. I assume this is because he playin an NL pitchers park, Ks more and BBs fewer than Harden. Peavy didn't lead the league in ERA, Santana did. 216 isn't very high for the NL lead either.


I think there are still do leagues in baseball, right? !+)
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Feb 21, 2006 1:15 pm

nuggets wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Something to keep in mind when comparing Harden to Peavy is that they are both 24 and are equally likely to improve. Harden may get more wins due to his rotation slot, but I think the AL West has improved slightly. I'd take Peavy in front of Harden because he's done it twice (led league in ERA, then strikeouts), and because Peavy's w/9 and h/9 have decreased in every MLB season, and his k/9 have increased in every season.

I think Harden can perform in the top five this season, but I'd temper your expectations.


BP says Peavy is almost twice as likely to improve and break out. I assume this is because he playin an NL pitchers park, Ks more and BBs fewer than Harden. Peavy didn't lead the league in ERA, Santana did. 216 isn't very high for the NL lead either.

Peavy led the majors in ERA in 2004 and then led the NL in strikeouts in 2005.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 21, 2006 1:16 pm

Pretty much no pitcher is a lock for 17 wins but if I had to pick one it wouldn't be Harden. There is no reason to assume he'll get 17.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 1:29 pm

^

Doh, I meant to write K not ERA.
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