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arod, pujols, vlad, tex, manny, big papi....then who's next?

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Postby rainman23 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 12:57 pm

If I draw anything after the 4th spot in my primary league I may wind up going with Santana. I know drafting SP's that early is sacrilege to a lot of guys, but I've got a couple reasons. One, I believe the hitters available in the second half of the first round this year look to be an unusually weak lot. I guess my primary evidence here would be how high Manny's going this time around. For several years he was consistently a second round kind of guy...last year he nudged into maybe the 10th spot in a lot of drafts. And this year he's a top 5 guy. Do people think Manny is getting better? I don't really think so...despite a ton of RBI's, people were talking most of last year like it was a down year for him. I think it really reflects kind of a changing of the guard -- perennial first rounders like Bonds, Sosa, Johnson, Schilling, and Pedro have dropped back, and there aren't a ton of clear-cut successors yet. Beltran was supposed to be one, and for now it looks like he's tanked. For guys like Bay, Utley, Young to be serious 1rst round candidates -- man, good as they are, what this says more than anything is we don't know who to believe in now. So a consistent producer like Manny starts to look pretty good.

So, anyway, maybe less monster bats than usual. And on the pitching side, I'm not sure there's been a year in recent memory when there's been such a consensus on who the #1 SP is. And that would be Santana. I'd rather go with a big bat in the 1rst round, but if I don't get one of the top 4 hitters, snagging the ace SP in the first round, and drafting bats the next 6 or 7, may start looking pretty good.
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Postby Sp_Da_Man » Mon Feb 20, 2006 1:52 pm

It's kind of funny you mention Santana in that spot because I was thinking the same thing.

I was in a mock this past weekend & ended up picking Santana at #6 just to see what my team would look like and I was really surprised how solid it was.

Here's how the my first 10 picks went:

1.6 Santana
2.7 Bay
3.6 Reyes
4.7 Konerko
5.6 Kent
6.7 Sexson
7.6 BJ Ryan
8.7 Chipper
9.6 Lackey
10.7 B. Giles
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Postby mtarail » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:02 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:I think the moral of this thread is...pick whoever the hell you want. There seems to be no pattern in the rankings of these players. :-b I guess it's all personal preference.


I think that's pretty much true.

Personally, I'd put Santana at or near the top of that list.

But trying to figure out who will have a better year at OF between Crawford, Bay, and Abreu, or who will have a better year at 3B between M-Cab and Wright, or who will have a better year at SS between Youn ang Miggy is just about impossible.

Now, if I had to choose from guys on that list at OF, I'd take Abreu first. If I have to choose a 3B, I'll take MCab. And SS--I guess Tejada, but that's almost like "flip a coin."
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Postby giants! » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:04 pm

I had 8th pick in my league. The 6 you mentioned and santana were gone. I took Cabrera at 8, young went at 9, Lee went 10, Tejada went 11, Sheffield went 12, i took abreu at 13 (10 teamer)

If abreu was gone I would have taken crawford and then wright
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:05 pm

Sp_Da_Man wrote:It's kind of funny you mention Santana in that spot because I was thinking the same thing.

I was in a mock this past weekend & ended up picking Santana at #6 just to see what my team would look like and I was really surprised how solid it was.

Here's how the my first 10 picks went:

1.6 Santana
2.7 Bay
3.6 Reyes
4.7 Konerko
5.6 Kent
6.7 Sexson
7.6 BJ Ryan
8.7 Chipper
9.6 Lackey
10.7 B. Giles


That looks like what I'm thinking about, if I don't get MCab/ DWright, I would like Santana and then would want to make sure to get Sexson/ Konerko/ Dunn from the later rounds. Getting two of them sounds even better! ;-D
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Postby with_pleasure » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:47 pm

giants! wrote:I had 8th pick in my league. The 6 you mentioned and santana were gone. I took Cabrera at 8, young went at 9, Lee went 10, Tejada went 11, Sheffield went 12, i took abreu at 13 (10 teamer)

If abreu was gone I would have taken crawford and then wright


Sheffield going at 12 is way too high. In my Yahoo winners league he went at 24. Here's how we drafted:

One.
A-Rod
Pujols
Johan
Vlad
Teix
Manny
Papi
Wright
Abreu -> myself
Crawford
D.Lee
Young

Two.
MCab
Tejada
Utley
Peavy -> myself

I had a real tough time choosing between Abreu and Derrek Lee. I may have made the wrong decision. If Juan Pierre bounces back, Lee might have the same stats despite the predicted regression to the mean. Bay fell all the way to 19.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:52 pm

slomo007 wrote:I've got the 5th pick this year in my money league and am completely clueless who I'm going to pick at this point. Ideally I would hope that there is a big Boston fan in 1-4 that will pick Manny or Ortiz for some reason, letting Teixeira or Vlad fall to me. But, if that doesn't happen then I really don't know who I will pick.

I think Cabrera is by FAR the most talented of that bunch. It's really not even close when we're talking talent. Unfortunately, he also plays on what should be a terrible team, so I don't know if he's worth the risk of having a player who will be lucky to see 10 hittable pitches all season. That's what makes this decision so difficult for me. :-?


You have to take the most talented and youngest out of the bunch. I have MCab as 4th overall in my current rankings, Wright at 5th overall ahead of Teixeira.
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Postby slomo007 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 2:55 pm

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:I've got the 5th pick this year in my money league and am completely clueless who I'm going to pick at this point. Ideally I would hope that there is a big Boston fan in 1-4 that will pick Manny or Ortiz for some reason, letting Teixeira or Vlad fall to me. But, if that doesn't happen then I really don't know who I will pick.

I think Cabrera is by FAR the most talented of that bunch. It's really not even close when we're talking talent. Unfortunately, he also plays on what should be a terrible team, so I don't know if he's worth the risk of having a player who will be lucky to see 10 hittable pitches all season. That's what makes this decision so difficult for me. :-?


You have to take the most talented and youngest out of the bunch. I have MCab as 4th overall in my current rankings, Wright at 5th overall ahead of Teixeira.


Part of me honestly agrees with you and wants to take Cabrera. I then see him going early 2nd round in so many leagues, and that leaves me truly speechless. I would be so unbelievably thrilled to snatch him at the end of the 1st if I had a pick there. To think that I'm considering him with the 4th pick and that others are letting him slip to 2nd makes me wonder if I'm the idiot. I'll keep thinking, but as of now I'm learning towards Cabrera in all honesty.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 20, 2006 3:05 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:I've got the 5th pick this year in my money league and am completely clueless who I'm going to pick at this point. Ideally I would hope that there is a big Boston fan in 1-4 that will pick Manny or Ortiz for some reason, letting Teixeira or Vlad fall to me. But, if that doesn't happen then I really don't know who I will pick.

I think Cabrera is by FAR the most talented of that bunch. It's really not even close when we're talking talent. Unfortunately, he also plays on what should be a terrible team, so I don't know if he's worth the risk of having a player who will be lucky to see 10 hittable pitches all season. That's what makes this decision so difficult for me. :-?


You have to take the most talented and youngest out of the bunch. I have MCab as 4th overall in my current rankings, Wright at 5th overall ahead of Teixeira.


Part of me honestly agrees with you and wants to take Cabrera. I then see him going early 2nd round in so many leagues, and that leaves me truly speechless. I would be so unbelievably thrilled to snatch him at the end of the 1st if I had a pick there. To think that I'm considering him with the 4th pick and that others are letting him slip to 2nd makes me wonder if I'm the idiot. I'll keep thinking, but as of now I'm learning towards Cabrera in all honesty.


Too many people are betting against him due to his lineup. I just don't buy that he will take a dramatic fall from his level just because a couple of guys are missing from the new lineup. The kid will be only 23 in 06 and 99% of players can only dream about the numbers he already put up. Until he proves you wrong, you can't write him off. That's my philosophy.

Also, I don't see glaring weaknesses or crazy splits (i.e. Teixiera's road #s) in his numbers. He's solid and should take another step forward. If his numbers slip, it won't be due to the lack of support from the lineup.
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Postby slomo007 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 3:13 pm

On the bright side, the Marlins weak offense combined with Cabreras higher walk totals might lead to a few more SBs for him this year. Surely he will look to steal a few as payback for putting him on base so many times.

Thanks for the reassurance Yoda, glad I'm not the only one who is so high on Cabrera.
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