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Shawn Green vs. JD Drew

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:24 am

nuggets wrote:
Can you explain the differences in the bold sentences?


There are two "weightings" being done. One is the weighting of Drew and Green's prior year data to get their expected performance in 2006.

The other is the weighting used to adjust for the fact that neither will be used for the full season (because of injury of platooning).
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:27 am

HOOTIE wrote:I would take Drew. Better hitter, much better upside. Green is a safer pick, but i always take the upside guy over safe.


But, I think much worse downside, too. I have a draft article that I submitted because of this debate, because even with the adjusted figures as I think wozzyk has them, these two players raise a neat issue of mean versus variance. All of us tend to focus almost exclusively on the mean prediction. When we look at variance, we almost always look at the "upside". My draft article argues that you might want to think about focusing on variance within tiers. basically your tiers identify players that you think will provide the same value. If you feel one player with the same mean performance has less variance, a rational decision would be to choose the "safe" player.
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Postby BritSox » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:52 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:I would take Drew. Better hitter, much better upside. Green is a safer pick, but i always take the upside guy over safe.


But, I think much worse downside, too. I have a draft article that I submitted because of this debate, because even with the adjusted figures as I think wozzyk has them, these two players raise a neat issue of mean versus variance. All of us tend to focus almost exclusively on the mean prediction. When we look at variance, we almost always look at the "upside". My draft article argues that you might want to think about focusing on variance within tiers. basically your tiers identify players that you think will provide the same value. If you feel one player with the same mean performance has less variance, a rational decision would be to choose the "safe" player.


It depends, i think, on what replacement level is. Am I right in thinking Drew's downside is missing the whole season injured? He doesn't seem like the kind of guy to play on with a nagging injury inhibiting his performance, so I can't see him not outperforming Green if healthy. If it's a shallow league, and the difference between Green and the replacement player is not a great deal, that means there's almost no downside to picking Drew.

If it's a thirty team league, then the chances are there's almost no-one with a starting job left on waivers, and the few starters left are the likes of Eric Reed, then Green's relative value increases hugely. Even so, however it's not going to be Reed taking most of the ABs, unless you lose another OFer for a prolonged period.
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Postby phunkadelic » Wed Feb 22, 2006 9:01 am

For those that keep trying to compare Green's RHP numbers, that's not a fair assessment. In fantasy, you can only plan for SP - but once relievers come into a game, they're going to be facing lefties quite often. You simply can't play a fantasy player purely against RH pitchers, it doesn't work that way.

That aside, you'll be getting these guys anywhere from round 15-20. At that point, I'm just wanting someone who has the potential to bust out and possibly put up 5th rounder numbers. In this case, I choose Drew.
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Postby BritSox » Wed Feb 22, 2006 9:08 am

phunkadelic wrote:For those that keep trying to compare Green's RHP numbers, that's not a fair assessment. In fantasy, you can only plan for SP - but once relievers come into a game, they're going to be facing lefties quite often. You simply can't play a fantasy player purely against RH pitchers, it doesn't work that way.

That aside, you'll be getting these guys anywhere from round 15-20. At that point, I'm just wanting someone who has the potential to bust out and possibly put up 5th rounder numbers. In this case, I choose Drew.


GTWMA's already taken this into account in his calculations.
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Postby Wozzyck » Wed Feb 22, 2006 9:59 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'm with you, now, except on the BA, where my three year average for Drew is .293. Are you weighting that also by number of ABs in the years (which would pull Green up, since he hit .250 in 2004)


You are probably averaging the batting averages themselves, which you can't do given the differences in ABs from year to year. Get the 3-year weighted average for ABs and Hs and compute.

I am quite sure that if we have the assumed backup plan on the bench for both Green and Drew, it would take a decent number of additional games missed by Drew (in addition to the 1/3), for the performance of Team Drew to lag Team Green. (As long as we have a reasonable backup plan, variance in playing time can be mitigated.) If you come up with some assumptions for replacement performance, you could probably show this without much trouble.

BritSox wrote:GTWMA's already taken this into account in his calculations.


He acknowledged the problem when it was brought up on Page 2, but the numbers have not been adjusted (at least by me, and to my knowledge by him) since then.
Last edited by Wozzyck on Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:07 am

BritSox wrote:It depends, i think, on what replacement level is. Am I right in thinking Drew's downside is missing the whole season injured? He doesn't seem like the kind of guy to play on with a nagging injury inhibiting his performance, so I can't see him not outperforming Green if healthy. If it's a shallow league, and the difference between Green and the replacement player is not a great deal, that means there's almost no downside to picking Drew.

If it's a thirty team league, then the chances are there's almost no-one with a starting job left on waivers, and the few starters left are the likes of Eric Reed, then Green's relative value increases hugely. Even so, however it's not going to be Reed taking most of the ABs, unless you lose another OFer for a prolonged period.


Not just missing the whole season, but missing anything more than 1/3rd of the season and/or having his performance impaired by injury. If you compare 2003/2005 to 2004 you see that not only did he miss time, but his rate stats were worse. Generally (though not in all years, certainly), when Drew has played fewer than 110 games, his rate stats have been lower. Whether that's playing injured, or just being rusty, the downside is both extra lost time and porrer performance. The more of the season he misses, the more you get replacement level.

But, it certainly does depend on what the replacement level is and how you are able to redistribute ABs if you must replace him.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:09 am

BritSox wrote:
phunkadelic wrote:For those that keep trying to compare Green's RHP numbers, that's not a fair assessment. In fantasy, you can only plan for SP - but once relievers come into a game, they're going to be facing lefties quite often. You simply can't play a fantasy player purely against RH pitchers, it doesn't work that way.

That aside, you'll be getting these guys anywhere from round 15-20. At that point, I'm just wanting someone who has the potential to bust out and possibly put up 5th rounder numbers. In this case, I choose Drew.


GTWMA's already taken this into account in his calculations.


Actually, I think Wozzyck brought this up and neither of us are really accounting for it, except in acknowledging that the numbers presented in some sense provide an optimistic assessment for Green.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 10:26 am

Wozzyck wrote:I am quite sure that if we have the assumed backup plan on the bench for both Green and Drew, it would take a decent number of additional games missed by Drew (in addition to the 1/3), for the performance of Team Drew to lag Team Green. (As long as we have a reasonable backup plan, variance in playing time can be mitigated.) If you come up with some assumptions for replacement performance, you could probably show this without much trouble.


You would also have to make assumptions about how ABs were redistributed, with the replacements, but I'm sure reasonable assumptions can be made. A very rough guide below. If you can put together a group of players that get to an .800 OPS, Team Drew should top Team Green as long as Drew plays 50 percent of the time (and achieves about a .950 OPS). Until Drew gets down to about 20 percent playing time, there's not a high liklihood that Greenmatches on OPS. It's probably closer on some of the other stats, because OPS was the bigger difference.

<pre>

% of
Season
Played Replacement OPS
by Drew 0.725 0.750 0.775 0.800 0.825 0.850
0.1 0.747 0.770 0.792 0.815 0.837 0.860
0.2 0.770 0.790 0.810 0.830 0.850 0.870
0.3 0.792 0.809 0.827 0.844 0.862 0.879
0.4 0.814 0.829 0.844 0.859 0.874 0.889
0.5 0.837 0.849 0.862 0.874 0.887 0.899
0.6 0.859 0.869 0.879 0.889 0.899 0.909
0.7 0.881 0.889 0.896 0.904 0.911 0.919
0.8 0.903 0.908 0.913 0.918 0.923 0.928
0.9 0.926 0.928 0.931 0.933 0.936 0.938
</pre>
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Postby daweasle » Sat Mar 11, 2006 4:50 am

I guess I'm two weeks too late - But this really is one of the most informative threads i ever read.

not that I really give two shits about green or drew (I avoid both most of the time) but just the reality of how important lefty/rightie splits can be.

I got blown out of the water about halfway thru - because I suddenly realized this is somethign I never took into acct - (mainly because my big money league has no bench players so it's impossible to platoon anyone.)

But the more i read about this - the more I thought about how much work it must be to check you team everyday - and verify your lineup has all the right starters vs projected SP(left/right)

When I really overanalyze it - it seems like a lot of work but I guess it couldn't take more than 15 minutes per day - 15 minutes I would waste answering posts on here if I weren't doing that.

So basically I guess I am saying thanks cause I have a new roto league with a fairly deep bench and I plan to take advantage of my new found knowledge.
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