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Shawn Green vs. JD Drew

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:56 am

Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.
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Postby The Cow » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:39 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.


I think you put way too much thought into J.D. Drew and Green.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:38 pm

The Cow wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.


I think you put way too much thought into J.D. Drew and Green.


It will likely lead him to more success in fantasy leagues than someone who does not . ;-)
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 21, 2006 6:18 pm

The Cow wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.


I think you put way too much thought into J.D. Drew and Green.


I know I don't care what you think.
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Postby Wozzyck » Tue Feb 21, 2006 9:59 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.


Well, doing it as you've described (for OPS, as well) it's:

Team Drew: .930 OPS, .296 BA, 110 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB
Team Green: .869 OPS, .296 BA, 94 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 4 SB.

Are we done here?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 12:42 am

Wozzyck wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.


Well, doing it as you've described (for OPS, as well) it's:

Team Drew: .930 OPS, .296 BA, 110 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB
Team Green: .869 OPS, .296 BA, 94 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 4 SB.

Are we done here?


Not really. I have no clue how you got to those numbers. If Drew and Green are assumed to have identical outcomes in the 54 games where they do not play, how can a difference of 5 runs, 2 HRs, and 1 RBIs .002 in BA be transformed into 16 runs, 5 HRs,and 6 RBIs and no difference in BA. I can only guess that maybe in some way you are misweighting through games or double counting in some fashion.
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Postby Wozzyck » Wed Feb 22, 2006 2:09 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Not really. I have no clue how you got to those numbers. If Drew and Green are assumed to have identical outcomes in the 54 games where they do not play, how can a difference of 5 runs, 2 HRs, and 1 RBIs .002 in BA be transformed into 16 runs, 5 HRs,and 6 RBIs and no difference in BA. I can only guess that maybe in some way you are misweighting through games or double counting in some fashion.


The weighted mean (i.e. 50/33/17) for Drew over the last three years is:
101 G, 346 AB, 73 R, 20 HR, 56 RBI, 5 SB, .296 BA, .962 OPS

For Green vs. RHP it's:
420 AB, 65 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .296 BA, .869 OPS

If one calculates Greens typical AB/G, the above line comes from about 112 G.

We've been assuming Drew will play 2/3 of the season, so for his 2/3 he produces about:
108 G, 370 AB, 78 R, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB, .296 BA, .962 OPS

For Greens 2/3 he produces about:
108 G, 405 AB, 63 R, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 2 SB, .296 BA, .869 OPS.

I believe it's your calculations that are in error. You might want to check them again (it's easy enough to do).
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Postby nuggets » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:06 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:Yes, you do say that on Page 2 (when you're comparing Drew against Green vs. RHSP and not worrying about the rest of the at-bats). However a few posts later you wrote this (claiming that Team Green and Team Drew offer approximately the same OPS):

Now as I said above, the OPS difference for Team Green vs. Team Drew is about .864 vs. .920. For the rest of the stats, I'll just assume that it's 2/3 Green + 1/3 Green-like and 2/3 Drew + 1/3 Green-like, and use 3-year averages. (If you offer up acceptable assumptions about replacement-level performance, I can do it more accurately; but still, that would only help Team Drew.)

Team Drew: .920 OPS, .295 BA, 108 R, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB
Team Green: .864 OPS, .294 BA, 93 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 4 SB

This is not basically identical production. In my mind, variance never had a chance to enter the picture because it was being used to analyze information which was being misrepresented/interpretted (not that you were doing this with any ill intent).


I agree that stating that things were "essentially the same average" was misleading with respect to OPS. But, are these 3 year weighted averages or just straight averages? Because if I use 3 year weighted averages and do a 67/33 mix for Drew I get the following:

<pre>
Drew 70 19 56 4 0.294 0.922
R HR RBI SB AVG OPS
Green 65 17 55 3 0.296 0.869
</pre>

That's essentially what I was looking at (using a different replacement level, rather than Green). I think you'll agree that the only real difference in those is the OPS, which is why I think variance is important inthis case.


Can you explain the differences in the bold sentences?

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).


So, I think our different numbers are drive by the fact that I use the weighted average (50% most recent year, 33% 2004, 17% 2003), where you used straight averages (33% most recent, 33% 2004, 33% 2003). My greater weight on Drew's most recent and worst year is what makes my numbers closer.
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Feb 22, 2006 4:43 am

I would take Drew. Better hitter, much better upside. Green is a safer pick, but i always take the upside guy over safe.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:22 am

Wozzyck wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Not really. I have no clue how you got to those numbers. If Drew and Green are assumed to have identical outcomes in the 54 games where they do not play, how can a difference of 5 runs, 2 HRs, and 1 RBIs .002 in BA be transformed into 16 runs, 5 HRs,and 6 RBIs and no difference in BA. I can only guess that maybe in some way you are misweighting through games or double counting in some fashion.


The weighted mean (i.e. 50/33/17) for Drew over the last three years is:
101 G, 346 AB, 73 R, 20 HR, 56 RBI, 5 SB, .296 BA, .962 OPS

For Green vs. RHP it's:
420 AB, 65 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .296 BA, .869 OPS

If one calculates Greens typical AB/G, the above line comes from about 112 G.

We've been assuming Drew will play 2/3 of the season, so for his 2/3 he produces about:
108 G, 370 AB, 78 R, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB, .296 BA, .962 OPS

For Greens 2/3 he produces about:
108 G, 405 AB, 63 R, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 2 SB, .296 BA, .869 OPS.

I believe it's your calculations that are in error. You might want to check them again (it's easy enough to do).


I'm with you, now, except on the BA, where my three year average for Drew is .293. Are you weighting that also by number of ABs in the years (which would pull Green up, since he hit .250 in 2004)
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