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Shawn Green vs. JD Drew

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Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:25 pm

George_Foreman wrote:GTWMA is correct here. If you draft two guys with good splits and play whomever has the better matchup, you'll probably produce stats that are very similar to their "vs. RHP" splits (although you'll probably have about 1 out of every 9 game days be a situation where they're both going against a lefty starter, in which case you can either just not start either (and hope to make the games up on off days) or bite the bullet and play the bad matchup.

If you draft another guy at the same place in case Drew goes down, you'll get that guy's overall numbers because you won't be able to make sure you can only play him against RHPs. I mean, if there was a way you could time it so Drew only missed games when your backup was playing against a RHP, you'd be set, but sadly this isn't how injuries work. >_<


Wozzyck is assuming the same format as GTWMA where he already has 2 bench OF with good platoon splits against righties, thus when Drew is injured he will get to choose between the two AND whoever he picked up, and if Drew's numbers while healthy are greater than Green's against righties, and each player plays 2/3's of your fantasy games with Green's other 3rd made up of the choice of 2 bench players, and Drew's between the 2 bench players and a WW pickup (who is probably hitting hot right then) then it would seem that at the very least there would be little lost for your Fantasy team while Drew was hurt if anything.
Then again I assume GTWMA already knew that and just chose a side to fight on.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:27 pm

Wozzyck wrote:
Really, is this a serious response? With Green your options in the "1/9th" situation are:

(1) lefty bench bat #1 vs. lefty, (2) lefty bench bat #2 vs. lefty, or (3) Shawn Green vs. lefty (w/ ~.700 OPS) (i.e. all about equally bad)

With Drew your options are:

(1) lefty bench bat #1 vs. lefty, (2) lefty bench bat #2 vs. lefty, or (3) waiver-wire pickup (w/ ~.750-.800 OPS by your previous suggestion)

If you're arguing that maybe the Drew situation isn't as good because maybe that waiver-wire pickup won't meet reasonable expectations (and we might be tricked into using him rather than the two awful options at hand), I'd like to know explicitly because I'd like to stop bothering to articulate any more responses if this is what I'm dealing with.


There's nothing "tricked" about it. I have greater certainty about the projection in the first case than I do in the second case. You may not agree with the importance I place on that, but argue the point, rather than pretending that sarcasm is worth anything.

Wozzyck wrote:Why are you backpeddling here? You seemed confident is your previous statements about Drew vs. Green without needing to fall back on this; why not now? (And the mean outcomes are NOT THE SAME! They weren't the same when you assumed it was Drew or a waiver-wire pickup, and they're certainly not the same now). I've seen you mention on this board that you're a professor; out of morbid curiosity, in what field?

(BTW, I do appreciate the holds projections you've put up on the board. ;-) )


De nada. My degrees are in economics and I teach in health policy program.

But, I'm not backpedaling. My argument has always had two points, though I may not have explained them well. First, I've argued that the difference between Drew and Green is much smaller than it appears, because taking into account Drew's likely injury time and a Green platoon makes the mean projections closer than first glance.

In other words, 162 games of Drew versus 162 games of Green against all types of pitchers overstates the difference. The more reasonable comparison (108 games of Drew plus 54 of replacements) versus (108 games of Green platooned plus 54 of replacements) is much closer than the former.

The second point has been that the variation in Drew's performance (both whether it will be 108 games or 50 or 150 and the variation in the ability to replace his performance) must be taken into account.

Most FBB focus solely on the mean, ignoring the variance or risk in a player's projection. Green's consistency suggests very little risk. Drew's injury history suggests lots of risk in that mean projection.

It's possible that even if the Green+replacements mean projection is less than Drew+replacements, the greater variance makes the Green choice better. Your choice should depend on both mean and variance.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:29 pm

Just to clarify that the variance in Drew's play is not "backpedaling", but something I've been arguing from page 1...


GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Drew has major upside. Green is just a mediocre player. I'd definately take J.D. here.


Drew has major downside, too. Compare high and lows on these guys and you'll see Green's performance is within a much narrower range. Over the last three years:

Drew's high and low in runs were 48 and 118
Green's were 84 and 92

Drew's high and lows in HRs were 15 and 31
Green's were 19 and 28

In RBIs, Drew's high and low were 36 and 93
Green's were 73 and 85

In SBs, Drew's were 1 and 12
Green's were 5 and 8

Only in BA is this pattern different (although if you go back 4 years, Drew's high and low were .252 and .305 and Green's were .266 and .286).

Other people may like that upside, and I think that's reasonable. But, make the choice knowing that there is a downside, too. Green may be slightly worse (if platooned), but he's much more consistent.
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Postby Wozzyck » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:36 pm

George_Foreman wrote:GTWMA is correct here. If you draft two guys with good splits and play whomever has the better matchup, you'll probably produce stats that are very similar to their "vs. RHP" splits (although you'll probably have about 1 out of every 9 game days be a situation where they're both going against a lefty starter, in which case you can either just not start either (and hope to make the games up on off days) or bite the bullet and play the bad matchup.

If you draft another guy at the same place in case Drew goes down, you'll get that guy's overall numbers because you won't be able to make sure you can only play him against RHPs. I mean, if there was a way you could time it so Drew only missed games when your backup was playing against a RHP, you'd be set, but sadly this isn't how injuries work. >_<


See either of my first two posts on page 3, to see that you lose nothing in this regard when you draft Drew over Green.

nuggets wrote:Don't be an ass. I think it's pretty cool he's taking the time and effort to diagram everything out. I'd hate to see behavior like yours end behavior like GTWMA's. This isn't a who has the biggest nuts contest. Look I put Drew slightly ahead of Green too, but I don't have to mouth of about it, do I?


Perhaps, I'm being an ass about, but I don't like having to defend the same (not so subtle) point for 2-3 pages. It's not a "biggest nuts" contest, it's about getting it right, something I would expect from Gotowarmissagnes.
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Postby Wozzyck » Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:22 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:There's nothing "tricked" about it. I have greater certainty about the projection in the first case than I do in the second case. You may not agree with the importance I place on that, but argue the point, rather than pretending that sarcasm is worth anything.


If you feel that you have greater certainty in the former case (so much so that it overcomes the difference in expected production), could you quantify that? Since the latter case features only a swap of a ~.700OPS Green for a ~(.750-.800)OPS OF, that lack of certainty would probably need to be a bit sizeable.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:But, I'm not backpedaling. My argument has always had two points, though I may not have explained them well. First, I've argued that the difference between Drew and Green is much smaller than it appears, because taking into account Drew's likely injury time and a Green platoon makes the mean projections closer than first glance.

The second point has been that the variation in Drew's performance (both whether it will be 108 games or 50 or 150 and the variation in the ability to replace his performance) must be taken into account.


Yes I've seen that you've raised the point, but the nature of our disagreement has been over the discrepancies in those mean values (i.e. only over that 1/2 of your argument). On a number of occasions you've stated and tried to defend that the expected production of Green + vs. Drew + are about the same (and it's been an important part of your argument), but given your assumptions about the performances of Green, Drew, lefty bats and waiver-wire pickups, this is far from true. (Since we've been talking OPS, the expected OPS from Team Green is ~.864, the expected OPS from Team Drew is ~.920)

If you want to abandon that stance and claim that even though the expected production from Team Drew is noticeably better, Team Green is the superior one, go ahead. If you can show how the expected variation is quantified and that it's so great as to dwarf the discrepencies in expected value, I'd like to see it. (And I mean that.)
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 20, 2006 11:56 pm

Wozzyck wrote:Yes I've seen that you've raised the point, but the nature of our disagreement has been over the discrepancies in those mean values (i.e. only over that 1/2 of your argument). On a number of occasions you've stated and tried to defend that the expected production of Green + vs. Drew + are about the same (and it's been an important part of your argument), but given your assumptions about the performances of Green, Drew, lefty bats and waiver-wire pickups, this is far from true. (Since we've been talking OPS, the expected OPS from Team Green is ~.864, the expected OPS from Team Drew is ~.920)

If you want to abandon that stance and claim that even though the expected production from Team Drew is noticeably better, Team Green is the superior one, go ahead. If you can show how the expected variation is quantified and that it's so great as to dwarf the discrepencies in expected value, I'd like to see it. (And I mean that.)


First, I think you need to look back at page 2, where I pointed out that the OPS difference was about 60 points. So, there's no stance that I need abandon. My point throughout has been that the two are basically identical in the other 5 cats, but that Drew has the OPS advantage. And, while I don't seem to have explained myself well, I saw our discussion as being both about the mean and the variance.

Unfortunately, there's no simple way to quantify the impact of risk on decisions because, in part, it depends on each manager's risk tolerance. If you use the three year data to calculate a coefficient of variation, Drew's CV is 2 to 5 times greater than Green's. Given a manager's preferences for bias versus precision, you can calculate a preferred option, but there's no simple solution.
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Postby Wozzyck » Tue Feb 21, 2006 1:19 am

Yes, you do say that on Page 2 (when you're comparing Drew against Green vs. RHSP and not worrying about the rest of the at-bats). However a few posts later you wrote this (claiming that Team Green and Team Drew offer approximately the same OPS):

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The advantage for Green/platoon partner comes from the fact that I can grab two guys who are like Green--with an OPS of .870 versus righties in the draft. When Drew gets hurt I have to grab a replacement level player, and in a 14+ team league, that's a guy with an OPS in the .750-.800 range. So, the lefty platoon gives you 2/3 Green + 1/3 Exact same level of production, while Drew gives me 2/3 .950 + 1/3 .(750-.800). Those are approximately the same average, BUT, the Green/platoon as much lower risk.


Now as I said above, the OPS difference for Team Green vs. Team Drew is about .864 vs. .920. For the rest of the stats, I'll just assume that it's 2/3 Green + 1/3 Green-like and 2/3 Drew + 1/3 Green-like, and use 3-year averages. (If you offer up acceptable assumptions about replacement-level performance, I can do it more accurately; but still, that would only help Team Drew.)

Team Drew: .920 OPS, .295 BA, 108 R, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB
Team Green: .864 OPS, .294 BA, 93 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 4 SB

This is not basically identical production. In my mind, variance never had a chance to enter the picture because it was being used to analyze information which was being misrepresented/interpretted (not that you were doing this with any ill intent).
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Postby The Cow » Tue Feb 21, 2006 1:58 am

Do I have to draft either of these guys???? Ugh!
Give Snakes his due!!!! Snakes deserves the fantasy expert icon!!! Go Snakes!!!!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 21, 2006 8:33 am

Wozzyck wrote:Yes, you do say that on Page 2 (when you're comparing Drew against Green vs. RHSP and not worrying about the rest of the at-bats). However a few posts later you wrote this (claiming that Team Green and Team Drew offer approximately the same OPS):

Now as I said above, the OPS difference for Team Green vs. Team Drew is about .864 vs. .920. For the rest of the stats, I'll just assume that it's 2/3 Green + 1/3 Green-like and 2/3 Drew + 1/3 Green-like, and use 3-year averages. (If you offer up acceptable assumptions about replacement-level performance, I can do it more accurately; but still, that would only help Team Drew.)

Team Drew: .920 OPS, .295 BA, 108 R, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB
Team Green: .864 OPS, .294 BA, 93 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 4 SB

This is not basically identical production. In my mind, variance never had a chance to enter the picture because it was being used to analyze information which was being misrepresented/interpretted (not that you were doing this with any ill intent).


I agree that stating that things were "essentially the same average" was misleading with respect to OPS. But, are these 3 year weighted averages or just straight averages? Because if I use 3 year weighted averages and do a 67/33 mix for Drew I get the following:

<pre>
Drew 70 19 56 4 0.294 0.922
R HR RBI SB AVG OPS
Green 65 17 55 3 0.296 0.869
</pre>

That's essentially what I was looking at (using a different replacement level, rather than Green). I think you'll agree that the only real difference in those is the OPS, which is why I think variance is important inthis case.
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Postby Wozzyck » Tue Feb 21, 2006 8:50 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I agree that stating that things were "essentially the same average" was misleading with respect to OPS. But, are these 3 year weighted averages or just straight averages? Because if I use 3 year weighted averages and do a 67/33 mix for Drew I get the following:

<pre>
Drew 70 19 56 4 0.294 0.922
R HR RBI SB AVG OPS
Green 65 17 55 3 0.296 0.869
</pre>

That's essentially what I was looking at (using a different replacement level, rather than Green). I think you'll agree that the only real difference in those is the OPS, which is why I think variance is important inthis case.


For the stats (other than OPS), I used the 3-year averages to compute the per-game performance for Drew and Green vs. RHP (so again this is being nice to Green since he will still be facing some lefty relievers). So the lines were calculated by computing 108*(Drew line) + 54*(Green line) and 162*(Green line).
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