Shawn Green vs. JD Drew - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014

## Shawn Green vs. JD Drew

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GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:This is starting to not be worth it, but I'll spell it out in explicit detail. (Throughout we'll assume that lefty pitchers start 1/3 of all games.)

Say a drafter is given two choices at a particular pick: draft Green or draft Drew. Either way, we'll assume he's going to take two lefty bats with later picks. If he drafts Green, he will start him whenever he faces a RHSP (so about 2/3 of all games). If he drafts Drew, he will start him whenever he's healthy (we'll say 2/3 of all games). We'll examine what happens when neither is available:

Team with Green for those games when he faces LHSP:
We will have to turn to the bench when Green faces a LHSP. Since we have two lefty bats on the bench, there is a 8/9 chance that one of them has a favorable match-up (i.e. one of them is facing a righty). So for 1/9 games there is no favorable matchup, at which point we'll have to settle for a sub-replacement performance. So in total we have:

2/3 (Green vs. RHSP) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Sub-Replacement)]

Team with Drew for those games when he's injured:
Again we will have to turn to the bench when Drew is injured. Again there is an 8/9 chance that one of the lefty bats has a favorable matchup, so at worst we have:

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Sub-Replacement)]

However with Drew on the DL, we can pick up a player on waivers to give us an additional option, even if it's one that we won't use terribly often. Perhaps we can even pick up an undervalued lefty bat. Either way, we're even in a better spot:

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [26/27 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/27 (Sub-Replacement)], or

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Replacement)]

I can't really make this much more clear. What you don't seem to be acknowledging is that (according to the usage pattern prescribed) when Green is facing a LHSP, he's basically as dead to the team as Drew is when he's injured.

And, it's in that last 1/9th that I think the calculation is less than obviously a benefit for Drew. You are only in a better spot if you make a waiver wire pickup and use it in a way that benefits your team. It's possible that this will not be the case. You could ignore the waiver guy and be no worse off than with Green, but once you include him, you have to recognize that you can make mistakes and lead to a worse outcome.

This variation in outcomes, rather than the mean outcome, is the main reason to not choose Drew. While the mean prediction is that you'll have Drew for 2/3rds, you could have him anywhere from less than 50% of the time to more than 75% of the time. Furthermore, the waiver guy adds further potential variation into the mean outcome, which is less present when you choose the Green option.

It's the VARIANCE in performance, not the mean performance that's the relevant issue here. If you have two choices with the same or similar mean outcomes, but one involves significantly higher risk, the less risky choice might be best, even if its mean performance is a little lower.

In deep, competitive leagues GTWMA is correct. In the average Yahoo league Wozzyck is correct. I'm at the cafe to learn how to be the best, therefore I side with GTWMA. Although it would really come down to the make up of the players I drafted previous to the two becasue I love to gamble on WW pick ups. It's a personal choice that doesn't follow the logic to the T, but I like it that way.

BritSox wrote:It's not like Green's no injury risk at all, either.

Since 1998 he hasn't played fewer than 157 games or had fewer than 581 AB.
nuggets
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TurdFerguson wrote:Drew had a freak injury last year and was pretty healthy the year before with the Braves.If Drew stays healthy this year it is not even close.If you draft drew just make sure you draft a good back up like a Gomes.Drew has so much more upside than Green which makes it worth taking him over Green

Ypou have looked at Drew's career, right? In HALF od his 8 seasons he's played less than 110 games. His year in Atlanta is the ONLY year that he's played more than 135 games.

Last year was not a freak event. It was almost the norm for Drew.

Green, as Nuggets pointed out,Green has NEVER played fewer than 157 games over the same time period.

You're final comment is simply the classic example of focusing on the upside opportunity and ignoring the downside risk.
GotowarMissAgnes
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anyways i got drew for \$3, green went too high.

And that's not a bad deal. If I remember correctly, Green was going for at least \$6. If you bailed when he got higher than that, and took Drew for \$3, that's a great decision. Even 75 games of Drew should earn you back more than that.
GotowarMissAgnes
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nuggets wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I actually have them ranked very close. JD's going to put up better stats, but you have to weight that by his lower playing time. Green's weaknesses can also be minimized by platooning him against lefties.

Exactamundo. Because Green is so old and Drew's potential value so high I assume that's you'd put Drew ahead of Green as do I.

Actually, I have Green one position ahead of Drew in my rankings. I have strong keepers (Pujols, Jeter, Wright, DLee, Weeks, FLopez), so I'm comfortable valuing safety over the upside.
GotowarMissAgnes
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BritSox wrote:It's not like Green's no injury risk at all, either.

Sure, any 33 year old is an injury risk. But, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a 33 year old player with a lower injury risk than Shawn Green. And, I'm happy to bet that even a 33 year old Green has a decidly lower injury risk than JD Drew...at any age.
GotowarMissAgnes
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GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
nuggets wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I actually have them ranked very close. JD's going to put up better stats, but you have to weight that by his lower playing time. Green's weaknesses can also be minimized by platooning him against lefties.

Exactamundo. Because Green is so old and Drew's potential value so high I assume that's you'd put Drew ahead of Green as do I.

Actually, I have Green one position ahead of Drew in my rankings. I have strong keepers (Pujols, Jeter, Wright, DLee, Weeks, FLopez), so I'm comfortable valuing safety over the upside.

I guess this is part of what makes F basball so great. If I had solid keepers I'd be more willing to take a risk like Drew.
nuggets
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GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:Drew had a freak injury last year and was pretty healthy the year before with the Braves.If Drew stays healthy this year it is not even close.If you draft drew just make sure you draft a good back up like a Gomes.Drew has so much more upside than Green which makes it worth taking him over Green

Ypou have looked at Drew's career, right? In HALF od his 8 seasons he's played less than 110 games. His year in Atlanta is the ONLY year that he's played more than 135 games.

Last year was not a freak event. It was almost the norm for Drew.

Green, as Nuggets pointed out,Green has NEVER played fewer than 157 games over the same time period.

You're final comment is simply the classic example of focusing on the upside opportunity and ignoring the downside risk.
What are you talking about he got hit in the wrist with a pitch I guess he threw it at himself.Green is not that good I dont care how many games he has played in.If it is a big if Drew stays healthy for the full season than he will easily outperform Green.Green is on a terrible team and clearly has already peaked.You can pick up somebody off the WW that will put up similar numbers to Green maybe not as good but there wont be that big of a drop off.If you draft corectly than it should not matter beacuse you can draft a G.Jenkins type in the later rounds if you draft Drew.
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GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And, it's in that last 1/9th that I think the calculation is less than obviously a benefit for Drew. You are only in a better spot if you make a waiver wire pickup and use it in a way that benefits your team. It's possible that this will not be the case. You could ignore the waiver guy and be no worse off than with Green, but once you include him, you have to recognize that you can make mistakes and lead to a worse outcome.

Really, is this a serious response? With Green your options in the "1/9th" situation are:

(1) lefty bench bat #1 vs. lefty, (2) lefty bench bat #2 vs. lefty, or (3) Shawn Green vs. lefty (w/ ~.700 OPS) (i.e. all about equally bad)

With Drew your options are:

(1) lefty bench bat #1 vs. lefty, (2) lefty bench bat #2 vs. lefty, or (3) waiver-wire pickup (w/ ~.750-.800 OPS by your previous suggestion)

If you're arguing that maybe the Drew situation isn't as good because maybe that waiver-wire pickup won't meet reasonable expectations (and we might be tricked into using him rather than the two awful options at hand), I'd like to know explicitly because I'd like to stop bothering to articulate any more responses if this is what I'm dealing with.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:This variation in outcomes, rather than the mean outcome, is the main reason to not choose Drew. While the mean prediction is that you'll have Drew for 2/3rds, you could have him anywhere from less than 50% of the time to more than 75% of the time. Furthermore, the waiver guy adds further potential variation into the mean outcome, which is less present when you choose the Green option.

It's the VARIANCE in performance, not the mean performance that's the relevant issue here. If you have two choices with the same or similar mean outcomes, but one involves significantly higher risk, the less risky choice might be best, even if its mean performance is a little lower.

Why are you backpeddling here? You seemed confident is your previous statements about Drew vs. Green without needing to fall back on this; why not now? (And the mean outcomes are NOT THE SAME! They weren't the same when you assumed it was Drew or a waiver-wire pickup, and they're certainly not the same now). I've seen you mention on this board that you're a professor; out of morbid curiosity, in what field?

(BTW, I do appreciate the holds projections you've put up on the board. )
Wozzyck
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^

Don't be an ass. I think it's pretty cool he's taking the time and effort to diagram everything out. I'd hate to see behavior like yours end behavior like GTWMA's. This isn't a who has the biggest nuts contest. Look I put Drew slightly ahead of Green too, but I don't have to mouth of about it, do I?
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GTWMA is correct here. If you draft two guys with good splits and play whomever has the better matchup, you'll probably produce stats that are very similar to their "vs. RHP" splits (although you'll probably have about 1 out of every 9 game days be a situation where they're both going against a lefty starter, in which case you can either just not start either (and hope to make the games up on off days) or bite the bullet and play the bad matchup.

If you draft another guy at the same place in case Drew goes down, you'll get that guy's overall numbers because you won't be able to make sure you can only play him against RHPs. I mean, if there was a way you could time it so Drew only missed games when your backup was playing against a RHP, you'd be set, but sadly this isn't how injuries work. >_<
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