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Shawn Green vs. JD Drew

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Postby Wozzyck » Mon Feb 20, 2006 8:41 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Because that's not what you have. When Drew gets hurt, you have to replace him, regardless of who is on already your bench. That means you have to add someone from the waiver wire, which means your replacing his production with waiver wire production.


Please, let this be the last time you make this assumption.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Now, you can try to limit the effects of that by not using your WW pick-up and using the other guys already on your bench more, but then you are typically forced to play them in less desireable match-ups and you play with a short bench. For example, even if my draft includes a "green-like platoon partner", with Drew down I'm less able to spot start against lefties and lose some of that platoon advantage.


No, this is simply not true. Regardless of whether I have Drew or Green, there are ~50 games in which either is unavailable and I need to use one of the two lefty bats on my bench. The probability that one of these lefty bats has a favorable match-up is EXACTLY THE SAME whether it's one of the games that Drew misses or one of the games that Green misses. It's 50 games either way; whether they're spread randomly over a season or delivered in two-week chunks, you're not finding any greater or fewer good match-ups. And how are you playing with a shorter bench? When Green faces a lefty, he's not an option; when Drew is on the DL, he's also not an option. When Green is unavailable, you have 2 lefty bats to choose from; when Drew is unavailable, you have 2 lefty bats + waiver-wire lefty bat to choose from. Please, think about this; I feel like I've been repeating myself.
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Postby BritSox » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:09 am

Have to take Wozzyck's side on this narrow point. When Drew goes down, you're not replacing him with the WW guy, you're replacing Drew with the best OFer on your bench, or the single best hitter if you've slotted him in as your Utl, and then filling the bench spot with the WW guy.

Let's say you are carrying these two lefty killers on your bench. As Wozzyck says, there's nothing to stop you doing this when you're carrying Drew and not Green, and they're no more likely to have a favourable matchup because Drew is hurt than because Green is facing a lefty, unless one of them is actually Eric Byrnes and therefore playing on the same team as Green. If you carried two late round bats without platoon splits, it's as likely that one of them is facing a below-average starter, or has a start in a hitters' park, than it is that one of two guys with platoon splits gets to face a lefty. Who may still be Barry Zito or Randy Johnson.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 20, 2006 9:37 am

BritSox wrote:Have to take Wozzyck's side on this narrow point. When Drew goes down, you're not replacing him with the WW guy, you're replacing Drew with the best OFer on your bench, or the single best hitter if you've slotted him in as your Utl, and then filling the bench spot with the WW guy.


And then you are replacing that guy's ABs with ABs from who? Those ABs come from the guy you picked off the wiaver wire. As I said, you can minimize the waiver guy's effects by changing the distribution of ABs among guys on your bench, but then you are putting them in worse match-ups, in most cases. The net effect is likely to be almost identical to what's available on the waiver wire. You are talking about replacing Drew's ABs with either your 11th, 12th, 13th, or 14th best hitter, which is not going to be much different from the waiver wire production. In a 14 team league, the choice is between the player ranked somewhere between approximately 141 and 200. There's not that much difference in production there.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:52 am

I think it depends on where you are taking them, if you are taking one of them to start, and the league is deep, then yeah Green might be a slightly better idea, since he should play all year. If you take Drew you should also already have a solid backup. For example in my 20-team league, I took Drew in the 1st round (over Green), then made sure I had a backup who I liked (Jeremy Reed) who also did something drew doesn't anymore (steal bases). So, I go with Drew most of the time....
Also GTWMA, while the avg. WW fodder may suck, how many breakout players are on the WW at some point? Did anybody in your 14 team league have Jonny Gomes at the start of last year? There is some quality on the WW, you just have to look for it.
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Postby Wozzyck » Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:53 am

This is starting to not be worth it, but I'll spell it out in explicit detail. (Throughout we'll assume that lefty pitchers start 1/3 of all games.)

Say a drafter is given two choices at a particular pick: draft Green or draft Drew. Either way, we'll assume he's going to take two lefty bats with later picks. If he drafts Green, he will start him whenever he faces a RHSP (so about 2/3 of all games). If he drafts Drew, he will start him whenever he's healthy (we'll say 2/3 of all games). We'll examine what happens when neither is available:

Team with Green for those games when he faces LHSP:
We will have to turn to the bench when Green faces a LHSP. Since we have two lefty bats on the bench, there is a 8/9 chance that one of them has a favorable match-up (i.e. one of them is facing a righty). So for 1/9 games there is no favorable matchup, at which point we'll have to settle for a sub-replacement performance. So in total we have:

2/3 (Green vs. RHSP) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Sub-Replacement)]


Team with Drew for those games when he's injured:
Again we will have to turn to the bench when Drew is injured. Again there is an 8/9 chance that one of the lefty bats has a favorable matchup, so at worst we have:

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Sub-Replacement)]

However with Drew on the DL, we can pick up a player on waivers to give us an additional option, even if it's one that we won't use terribly often. Perhaps we can even pick up an undervalued lefty bat. Either way, we're even in a better spot:

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [26/27 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/27 (Sub-Replacement)], or

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Replacement)]


I can't really make this much more clear. What you don't seem to be acknowledging is that (according to the usage pattern prescribed) when Green is facing a LHSP, he's basically as dead to the team as Drew is when he's injured.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 20, 2006 1:21 pm

Wozzyck wrote:This is starting to not be worth it, but I'll spell it out in explicit detail. (Throughout we'll assume that lefty pitchers start 1/3 of all games.)

Say a drafter is given two choices at a particular pick: draft Green or draft Drew. Either way, we'll assume he's going to take two lefty bats with later picks. If he drafts Green, he will start him whenever he faces a RHSP (so about 2/3 of all games). If he drafts Drew, he will start him whenever he's healthy (we'll say 2/3 of all games). We'll examine what happens when neither is available:

Team with Green for those games when he faces LHSP:
We will have to turn to the bench when Green faces a LHSP. Since we have two lefty bats on the bench, there is a 8/9 chance that one of them has a favorable match-up (i.e. one of them is facing a righty). So for 1/9 games there is no favorable matchup, at which point we'll have to settle for a sub-replacement performance. So in total we have:

2/3 (Green vs. RHSP) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Sub-Replacement)]


Team with Drew for those games when he's injured:
Again we will have to turn to the bench when Drew is injured. Again there is an 8/9 chance that one of the lefty bats has a favorable matchup, so at worst we have:

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Sub-Replacement)]


However with Drew on the DL, we can pick up a player on waivers to give us an additional option, even if it's one that we won't use terribly often. Perhaps we can even pick up an undervalued lefty bat. Either way, we're even in a better spot:

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [26/27 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/27 (Sub-Replacement)], or

2/3 (Drew) + 1/3 [8/9 (Lefty vs. RHSP) + 1/9 (Replacement)]


I can't really make this much more clear. What you don't seem to be acknowledging is that (according to the usage pattern prescribed) when Green is facing a LHSP, he's basically as dead to the team as Drew is when he's injured.


And, it's in that last 1/9th that I think the calculation is less than obviously a benefit for Drew. You are only in a better spot if you make a waiver wire pickup and use it in a way that benefits your team. It's possible that this will not be the case. You could ignore the waiver guy and be no worse off than with Green, but once you include him, you have to recognize that you can make mistakes and lead to a worse outcome.

This variation in outcomes, rather than the mean outcome, is the main reason to not choose Drew. While the mean prediction is that you'll have Drew for 2/3rds, you could have him anywhere from less than 50% of the time to more than 75% of the time. Furthermore, the waiver guy adds further potential variation into the mean outcome, which is less present when you choose the Green option.

It's the VARIANCE in performance, not the mean performance that's the relevant issue here. If you have two choices with the same or similar mean outcomes, but one involves significantly higher risk, the less risky choice might be best, even if its mean performance is a little lower.
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Postby TurdFerguson » Mon Feb 20, 2006 3:25 pm

Drew had a freak injury last year and was pretty healthy the year before with the Braves.If Drew stays healthy this year it is not even close.If you draft drew just make sure you draft a good back up like a Gomes.Drew has so much more upside than Green which makes it worth taking him over Green
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Postby whoseyourdaddy12 » Mon Feb 20, 2006 5:04 pm

:*)


anyways i got drew for $3, green went too high.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Feb 20, 2006 5:13 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I actually have them ranked very close. JD's going to put up better stats, but you have to weight that by his lower playing time. Green's weaknesses can also be minimized by platooning him against lefties.


Exactamundo. Because Green is so old and Drew's potential value so high I assume that's you'd put Drew ahead of Green as do I. :-?
Last edited by nuggets on Mon Feb 20, 2006 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby BritSox » Mon Feb 20, 2006 5:15 pm

It's not like Green's no injury risk at all, either.
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