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Hermida VS Francoeur

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Postby TurdFerguson » Tue Feb 21, 2006 3:39 pm

nuggets wrote:
hybrid wrote: Why not compare their AA numbers last year were they both played in the same exact league and Hermida had obviously better numbers?



Hermida .293/18 HR/23/.975 in 506 PA
Franc: .275/13 HR/13/.809 in 367 PA

Franc gets caught stealing to often for me to predict he'll steal much at all in the majors, Hermida's steal rate is very nice. I'm drifting further and further to the Hermida side.
How are there numbers that much of a difference when Hermida had way more AB.If you want 10-15 more stolen bases than go with Hermida.To me SB are the most overrated cat in fantasy baseball.The key to there stats is Hermida had more AB and there numbers still arent that far apart.As for discussing what i there to discuss just beause I dont agree with you does not mean you are right.I think Franc is better bottom line.Then you read comments up at the top like Hermida stats in the minors were far better and his value is high just because of the half of last season is just plain idiotic.There really isnt anything to discuss with a guy that has a picture of Bonds
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 3:49 pm

The HRs and the SBs project to 19 in equal PA to Hermida.

Turd,

You need a dose of reality. Those numbers are far apart, relative to what we are talking about.
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Postby TurdFerguson » Tue Feb 21, 2006 3:54 pm

I think you need to lay off the nuggets because you are not making sense.I was replying to there minor league stats from last year and clearly stated that HERMIDA HAD MORE AB THAN FRAN IN THE MINORS LAST YEAR AND HIS STATS STILL WERENT THAT MUCH BETTER.If you like Hermida better than great it your opinion and I have mine
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 3:57 pm

TurdFerguson wrote:I think you need to lay off the nuggets because you are not making sense.I was replying to there minor league stats from last year and clearly stated that HERMIDA HAD MORE AB THAN FRAN IN THE MINORS LAST YEAR AND HIS STATS STILL WERENT THAT MUCH BETTER.


But, the thing is you are wrong. The stats were significantly better, even when projected over an equal amount of Plate Appearances.
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Postby TurdFerguson » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:06 pm

nuggets wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:I think you need to lay off the nuggets because you are not making sense.I was replying to there minor league stats from last year and clearly stated that HERMIDA HAD MORE AB THAN FRAN IN THE MINORS LAST YEAR AND HIS STATS STILL WERENT THAT MUCH BETTER.


But, the thing is you are wrong. The stats were significantly better, even when projected over an equal amount of Plate Appearances.
How is 293 and 275 and 19hr to 13 drasticaly that much better. There slugging was around the same Hermidas alittle higher all WHEN HERMIDA HAD MORE ABS in the minors last year.Like I said you have your opinion and I have mine and I clearly stated that I like Hermida.I am in a dynasty league and tried to trade for him crying out loud I would just put them on the same plateau,but would take the Braves coaching staff and the team Franc plays around 7 days of the week over the Marlins and especially with the Braves track record at producing talent.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:15 pm

^

Do you think slugging is like HR, where the more PA you have the higher it is likely to be?
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:23 pm

TurdFerguson wrote:
nuggets wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:I think you need to lay off the nuggets because you are not making sense.I was replying to there minor league stats from last year and clearly stated that HERMIDA HAD MORE AB THAN FRAN IN THE MINORS LAST YEAR AND HIS STATS STILL WERENT THAT MUCH BETTER.


But, the thing is you are wrong. The stats were significantly better, even when projected over an equal amount of Plate Appearances.
How is 293 and 275 and 19hr to 13 drasticaly that much better. There slugging was around the same Hermidas alittle higher all WHEN HERMIDA HAD MORE ABS in the minors last year.Like I said you have your opinion and I have mine and I clearly stated that I like Hermida.I am in a dynasty league and tried to trade for him crying out loud I would just put them on the same plateau,but would take the Braves coaching staff and the team Franc plays around 7 days of the week over the Marlins and especially with the Braves track record at producing talent.


I don't mean to pile on Turd but... The key things I look at when evaluating minor leaguers are Age relative to the league they are playing in, K, BB, K/BB, OBP and how they improve each year.

Francoeur got an earlier chance to play everyday and showed what he can do. You can't possibly penalize Hermida for this. Let's just pretend they were equal heading into 2005.

For the entire season 2005, Francoeur had 134 K, 32 BB in 592 AB in AA and MLB. His OBP was .322 and .336 respectively.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... oeur.shtml

For Hermida, 101 K, 117 BB in 427 AB in AA and MLB. OBP of .457 and .383.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... mida.shtml

They are in a completely different league with those numbers. Patient and selective prospects have a much greater chance of succeeding due to the higher level of pitching talent in MLB. Whether either player will continue their trend is a completely different matter. But when projecting based on what we have seen so far, they are not very close IMO.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:23 pm

TurdFerguson wrote:There really isnt anything to discuss with a guy that has a picture of Bonds


Wow. So the hatred of Bonds, now has carried over to a person having a Bonds avatar?

A career .399 oba, to a career .330 oba is close?
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Postby hybrid » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:28 pm

TurdFerguson wrote:I have not downgraded Hermida please do not put words in my mouth and where did I say anything about Franc being promoted and Hermida not have anything to do with this post go back and read the post .I said several times that I like Hermida and think its close I just like Franc better.Franc had 250 ab in the majors 300avg 14hr 45rbis anyway you slice and dice it.Hermida still struk out alot anyway you look at it and if you think his numbers were way better in the minors than that is just ludicrous.Hermida had 55 more at bats and put up slightly better numbers you are greatly exagerating.If you think Hermida is a slam dunk over Franc than great but there really isnt any proof to back it up because there minor league stats are very similar.


I say it cause it is the only reason at all why your saying Francouer is a better prospect. Everytime you post you say his success in the majors, which is more like a flash in the pan success over only 150 AB's. Then you asked who got by AA, like for some reason Francouer being called up before Hermida has anything to do them as prospects. I've never said Hermida is a slam dunk, you quoted my post on what I thought of them, it's all right there. I said he is a more well rounded prospect that has less risk, but still has upside. Nothing dealing with prospects is a slam dunk, but looking everything over I'd say the percentages are in my favor on this one.

On their stats in AA, Hermida is plus across the board.
AVG. +.18, OBP +.135, SLG +.31, OPS +.166
Those are all percentages that don't rely on Hermida having extra 50+ AB's. So really the only arguement you have is trying to stick with his 150 Ab sample size in saying he is better than Hermida.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:40 pm

Yoda wrote: But when projecting based on what we have seen so far, they are not very close IMO.


They might end up closer than you think. There is more risk involved and higher reward in SLG% with Franc. Check out his 90th percentile projection, it's very impressive. He does have a reasonable chance to outperform Hermida. BP is really downgrading Hermida because his relative 'league offensive level, home park, and team pitching' and other adjustments. His equivalents show him to be the better hitter, but it they are saying it won't show in the traditional stats. The opposite seems to be true for Franc.

83/19/62/17/.257
vs.
75/25/85/13/.274
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