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Postby StudentOfTheGame » Fri Feb 17, 2006 3:11 pm

Jmar wrote:think about it this way: Wins, ERA and WHIP do not exist. how do you value a starting pitcher?

That's what I'm interested in. the value of those three stats is debateable. but let's pretend it's not.


I would think that strikeouts and walks would be the most consistant stats when talking about starting pitchers....HRs given up would be a little less consistant based on where they made their starts that year, but still a pretty consistant stat..

I see your point, I just dont think you should totally dismiss W, ERA, WHIP as telling statistics because a pitcher's performance can have considerable control over them....
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Postby Jmar » Fri Feb 17, 2006 3:17 pm

you're right about HR/9 for Pedro. His +/- from his average is almost a quarter an HR per 9. That's heavy.

His WHIP is all over the place too. + or - .30 points from year to year.
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Postby Jmar » Fri Feb 17, 2006 3:20 pm

I agree you can't discount wins, era and whip. But I'm trying to find sleepers. Guys who are poised to breakout. guys who have been pitching as well as anyone but going 9 and 10 due to things (at least semi) out of his control. I want to find cheap middle-late round picks whose W, ERA and WHIP are going to improve DRAMATICLY next season.

guess it helps to explain my quest, eh?
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Postby StudentOfTheGame » Fri Feb 17, 2006 3:33 pm

Well in that case, Ive scanned the list you came up with and I have to say I think Harden and Escobar are excellent picks for this season...I know from watching Harden start most of his games last year that he doesnt give up the long ball often....He has occasional lapses in control, but he is almost impossible to hit when he is around the strike zone. Escobar has a filthy fastball and splitter, but struggled to locate his fastball last year....If he's healthy, he's tough too...I like pretty muh everyone on that list...Most of those guys are strikeout machines.
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Postby Jmar » Fri Feb 17, 2006 3:47 pm

yeah, i agree about Harden. If he stays healthy he could compete for the cy young with anyone else. I didn't expect Lackey or Burnett to be that high.

Here are some names that landed pretty high I know nothing about:

Jason Vargas - FLA
Paul Maholm - Pit (started 6 games)
Rob Tejeda - PHI

all listed as SPs.
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Postby dannahann » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:11 pm

I'm trying to help here so I took Pedro, excluded 1992 as he only pitched 8 innings (was over 100 in all other seasons) and ran how much he deviated from the average in each stat in question. Suprised me that his MOST INCONSISTANT STAT was HR/9.
Here's how they stacked:
Wins per 9IP: 0.71 average, % of Yr2Yr deviation 18.2%
ERA: 2.275 average, % of Yr2Yr deviation 26.3%
WHIP: 1.03 average, % of Yr2Yr deviation 14.1%
K per 9IP: 10.28 average, % of Yr2Yr deviation 15.3%
BB per 9IP: 2.46 average, % of Yr2Yr deviation 35.6%
HR per 9IP: 0.67 average, % of Yr2Yr deviation 37.2%
Really at least for Pedro, it appears your 3 best indices are WHIP K/9 and Wins ;-D
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Postby Jmar » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:34 pm

well, the reason i included HR/9 is because nobody else in involved. Unless it's inside the park. A hit (used in WHIP of course) does or does not exist because of the defense so it's impossible to tell if a hit is the pitchers fault (unless you watched every single one of them). A HR IS the pitchers fault.

Walks also don't involve anyone else so it's purely a pitchers stat (unless it's intentional). I realize I'm changing some definitions on us but I think we're getting closer to meaningful numbers.

see what I'm going for. Wins don't even come close since the pitchers Offense is now involved.

Again, i'm not saying you ignore these numbers when you draft, I'm trying to find a way to identify breakout pitchers for this upcoming year.
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