What can we count on from SPs year after year? Not wins. That's a team stat. Not ERA or whip for the most part either because so much happens between when the ball is hit into play. It's not up to the pitcher if a flyball is a double or an out. Strikeouts, walks and Hrs given up, are much more consistant year after year.
So I looked at K/inn, HR/9 and BB/inn. using last years stats (K/Inn-(Hr/9+BB/Inn). Those pitchers with the largest numbers (gap between Ks and BB+Hrs) give their teams the best chance at a win and should therefore be more consistant year to year. Here's what transpired:
Now I'm not sayin gyou draft Duke over Santana. You have to consider the teams offense and defense of course. But this is very helpful in keeper leagues, I believe. Maybe Toronto didn't overpay for AJ as bad as we'd thought?
This doesn't take into account innings pitched either. But how good would Escobar have been if he wasn't hurt most of the year? You can use this to project how he'll pitch this coming year better than looking at wins and loses.
A few interesting names landed far down on the list:
Prior landed at 54 because he gave up more Hrs per 9 than Ks per inning.
Zito landed at 70 with a negative number - more BB & Ks, than HRS.
I'm sure I'm overlooking a lot of things. Has anyone tried this before? what should I add into my formula?
I'd be an idiot not to agree to some extent with this argument, but I think pitchers in some way do have some control over this stat....Pitchers who are good at getting out of trouble and limiting damage, as well as pitchers who limit their pitch count by staying around the strike zone usually post better win totals....To me, the wins statistic is a testament to a pitchers durability, stamina in games, consistancy, and ability to get out of jams.
Jmar wrote:What can we count on from SPs year after year? Not wins. That's a team stat. Not ERA or whip for the most part either because so much happens between when the ball is hit into play. It's not up to the pitcher if a flyball is a double or an out. Strikeouts, walks and Hrs given up, are much more consistant year after year.
I haven't looked up any numbers, but I wouldn't be suprised if WHIP was at least as consistant year to year as was HR allowed. WHIP essentially measures how hard someone is to hit (yes defense plays a part) and how good someone's controll is. Just like defense on whip, there is also some slop/luck built into HR allowed. Take a Padre Dodger or Giant pitcher for example. Given that 2 out of 5 starters miss every 3 game series, it could easily work out that in one year a 6 or 7 of his 8 starts vs the Rockies and DBacks happens in his home park, while in the next all 8 occur in those road launching pads. Look at Peavy's HR/9 in 2003 vs 04 and 05. I think it was close to 3x as high. A couple seasons ago it seemed like every home start Maddux made had the wind blowing out at wrigley, bad luck sure, but my guess is his HR/9 rate was elevated then? All in all I would factor in HR/9 as you do BUT I wouldn't exclude WHIP. I think it's at least as indicative of the pitcher's ability as is his HR rate.
For the sake of the argument, let's assume wins are a team stat.
Here's a bit of fact though: let's look at Greg Maddux, the poster child for getting out of trouble. In 1995 he gave up 22 doubles which was really good. In 1996 he gave up 45. that's pretty bad. When asked about the difference he replied, "luck." (I think I read that in Moneyball). Look at Pedro: 1999- 38 doubles, 2000 - 18. He started 29 games both years. Difference of 5 wins.
I don't know....Generally when I watch baseball, the difference between a double and a single is pretty clear....Doubles are usually scorched down the line or into the gap while singles trickle through the infield or fall in front of the outfielder......I wouldn't chalk up the difference to "luck"....For the most part, doubles are hit alot harder than singles are, and this has something to do with the pitch thrown...
I agree that wins and era have more luck luck involved than does something like HR allowed. What I don't necessarily agree with is that WHIP has any more luck than does HR. Where does "doubles" now come into the discussion??? No one is contesting that K/9 isn't predictable...it is. It's HR/9 that you say is better than WHIP that I have a problem with.
how about the difference between a double and an out? A line drive is scorched down the line for a double - a line drive is scorched down the line and caught by the 3rd basemen who was in a fortunate position when the ball was hit. He took one step to the left as the ball was being thrown and we have an out instead of a double. That's not up to the pitcher.
Jmar wrote:think about it this way: Wins, ERA and WHIP do not exist. how do you value a starting pitcher?
That's what I'm interested in. the value of those three stats is debateable. but let's pretend it's not.
it IS debatable tho, at least as whip is concerned. You posted Pedro's numbers so I looked. His HR/9 is all over the board compared to his WHIP. The more stable stats are K/9 BB/9 and WHIP. HR/9 is EVERYWHERE, even for a longtime dominant stud like Pedro. I can only guess it's more volatile on less accomplished pitchers.