Jmar wrote:What can we count on from SPs year after year? Not wins. That's a team stat. Not ERA or whip for the most part either because so much happens between when the ball is hit into play. It's not up to the pitcher if a flyball is a double or an out. Strikeouts, walks and Hrs given up, are much more consistant year after year.
I haven't looked up any numbers, but I wouldn't be suprised if WHIP was at least as consistant year to year as was HR allowed. WHIP essentially measures how hard someone is to hit (yes defense plays a part) and how good someone's controll is. Just like defense on whip, there is also some slop/luck built into HR allowed. Take a Padre Dodger or Giant pitcher for example. Given that 2 out of 5 starters miss every 3 game series, it could easily work out that in one year a 6 or 7 of his 8 starts vs the Rockies and DBacks happens in his home park, while in the next all 8 occur in those road launching pads. Look at Peavy's HR/9 in 2003 vs 04 and 05. I think it was close to 3x as high. A couple seasons ago it seemed like every home start Maddux made had the wind blowing out at wrigley, bad luck sure, but my guess is his HR/9 rate was elevated then? All in all I would factor in HR/9 as you do BUT I wouldn't exclude WHIP. I think it's at least as indicative of the pitcher's ability as is his HR rate.