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Postby rotterdam_82 » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:40 am

bleach168 wrote:First of all, drafts aren't won in the first 2 rounds.


No, but it can be lost.

I don't like the extreme ends, but I like to be towards the back. 9th in a 12 team league is my perfect result.

You get your choice of the 'end of the first' players (Wright/Bay/Santana/Cabrera) as well as your choice of the 'just outside' players with pick number 16 (Sheff/Peavy/Chone/Hafner/Young). By the time the pick get's back to you you're in prime position to take your final 'can't miss' before they all go missing. At the same time, you don't lose out too much to the 'closer rush' as much as you would at one of the ends.

Concievably, you could end up with Wright, Hafner, Oswalt. Not a bad start to any draft......

9/12 or 7/10 ;-D
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Postby Matthias » Fri Feb 17, 2006 11:01 am

WittyC wrote:I'm pretty much non-partial myself this year, although I'm not a fan of being at the bookends in a snake. I feel that there's a moderate disadvantage the further you get from the middle picks for two reasons.

1) It's harder to jump in if a trend starts. If the two guys right after you grab two top-tier closers, for instance, chances are you'll miss out on them all.

2) You have less reaction time per pick. Yes, you have more total time between your picks, but a lot of drafting is dependant on what happens right before you pick, and you will have less time to react if you have to make two judgment calls in a row.

That second reason is a little iffy, and might be more mental than anything... but I guess I just feel rushed when I'm at the ends.


this is where i shake down. sure, the bookend picks are fun and dramatic, but they also force you to reach the most. you can't wait and see.

but it also depends on the sport and year. fantasy football is much more dependant upon individual players, for instance. and so the obvious prefernce this past season would have been to take one of the top 2 spots and land tomlinson or alexander. sure, pujols and a-rod are superior, but are they that differentially better? i wouldn't think so.
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Postby Ender » Fri Feb 17, 2006 1:13 pm

First of all, drafts aren't won in the first 2 rounds. Every pick is as important as another.

I'm with the minority here as I feel drafting in the middle gives you the most control.

With regards to runs, the worst thing that could happen is missing a run. If you are on a bookend, a run can start and end before you even get a pick. The second worst thing that could haoppen is starting a run, as you are overpaying.


I disagree. While I usually think you win drafts in the mid rounds, assuming completely even players the first 2 rounds very well can win the league for you. This year getting the 14th, 15th and 42nd pick compared to the 2nd, 27th, 30th is a huge disadvantage. I think the 14th through 30th picks only see a minute drop in production while the 2nd to 14th is huge and the 30th to 42nd is large.

As for runs, your best bet is usually to start it. You get the best of the bunch and then 6 or 7 picks happen taking weaker players at the same position, these are players that effectively are no good to you and that means the players you actually want aren't getting picked. The worst thing is usually ending a run, you get the worst player of the bunch and then players you actually want are being taken until your next pick.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Feb 17, 2006 1:48 pm

i have drafted pretty much every position and i dont really have a preference. each spot has its plusses and minuses and the best spot just kind of depends on what the other drafters do.
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Postby TheMeXiKaN » Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:26 pm

giants! wrote:I want 1-2 as it guarantees a top 5 sp in the third round.


Exactly!!!

I've done alot of mocks this year, and I like the first 4 spots best, becuase in the early 3rd I'llalways get a Peavy/Pedro/Carpenter.

I can usally pull off Teixeira, Reyes, Peavy as first 3 picks. Gotta Love The Power/Speed/Ace all in your first 3 picks.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:32 pm

2nd overall :-D I think Arod=Pujols and I got to pick before him on the way back
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:57 pm

Ender wrote:
First of all, drafts aren't won in the first 2 rounds. Every pick is as important as another.

I'm with the minority here as I feel drafting in the middle gives you the most control.

With regards to runs, the worst thing that could happen is missing a run. If you are on a bookend, a run can start and end before you even get a pick. The second worst thing that could haoppen is starting a run, as you are overpaying.


I disagree. While I usually think you win drafts in the mid rounds, assuming completely even players the first 2 rounds very well can win the league for you. This year getting the 14th, 15th and 42nd pick compared to the 2nd, 27th, 30th is a huge disadvantage. I think the 14th through 30th picks only see a minute drop in production while the 2nd to 14th is huge and the 30th to 42nd is large.

As for runs, your best bet is usually to start it. You get the best of the bunch and then 6 or 7 picks happen taking weaker players at the same position, these are players that effectively are no good to you and that means the players you actually want aren't getting picked. The worst thing is usually ending a run, you get the worst player of the bunch and then players you actually want are being taken until your next pick.


We must have a different definition of what a run is...

To me, players in a run are basically interchangeable. It doesn't really matter who you get as long as you get one. For example, a typical closer run would be something like,

Cordero
K-Rod
Nathan
Lidge
Isringhausen
Wagner
B.J. Ryan

They are all the same to me, I really don't care which one I get as long as I get one.
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Postby Zito is God » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:38 pm

To me, its either 1-2 or last. I think middle is the worst. Too much of a mess between similar numbers in the first but then I'm losing out on players in the second to people that draft last.
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Postby Matthias » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:46 pm

bleach168 wrote:We must have a different definition of what a run is...

To me, players in a run are basically interchangeable. It doesn't really matter who you get as long as you get one.


that's not how people normally think of in terms of runs. generally, there's a stock of players at a particular position, say shortstop, and someone plucks the top one, then five more fly off the board in the same round, and people are faced with the crappy choice of taking the last remaining at the second tier or just punting on it and picking up a third tier one five to seven rounds later.
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Postby Ender » Fri Feb 17, 2006 10:18 pm

bleach168 wrote:
We must have a different definition of what a run is...

To me, players in a run are basically interchangeable. It doesn't really matter who you get as long as you get one. For example, a typical closer run would be something like,

Cordero
K-Rod
Nathan
Lidge
Isringhausen
Wagner
B.J. Ryan

They are all the same to me, I really don't care which one I get as long as I get one.


No I agree with your definition, all of those closers are close to each other. I'd still rather have Nathan than Izzy though. Just because they are all closers you'd consider taking in the same round doesn't make them all exactly even in value. I like Lidge the best of the bunch, if I pick him and then next 6 of those all get picked in the next 7 or 8 picks its a big advantage for me because all 6 of those picks are guys that I had 0% chance of taking. If I take the 6th one then there are 0 picks ahead of me that I had 0% chance of taking. I'd much rather start the run than finish it.

An example is if I pick say 6th in the 4th round and Rivera has gone but no other closer. I will most likely take Lidge even though I'm not a fan of a closer in the 4th round, the reason being is the 7th-12th pick will most likely all be closers, its almost like taking a free pass on the rest of the 4th round as everyone that is going to pick after me is taking a player I had no intention of taking.

However the person with the 12th pick in the 4th is not only getting the weakest of the 6 closers most likely, the next 5 picks are almost for sure guys that he still had his eyes on since none of those players are going to take another closer which he doesn't need anymore.
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