WittyC wrote: 1) It's harder to jump in if a trend starts. If the two guys right after you grab two top-tier closers, for instance, chances are you'll miss out on them all.
That's why you use the bookends to your advantage and start a run. If you grab the 2 top closers at a time they should start going, others will waste their picks on closers who should go later, leaving you with better value on the way back.
As for the question, there are advantages and disadvantages to every spot, there truly are. Dumb picks by others in your league can completely change the draft. For example, most people would agree that pick #5 is one of the worst this year (miss out on Pujols/Arod/Vlad/Teix) and get "stuck" with Manny or someone of that caliber. That is not a good thing.
But, what if #4 drafts Manny unexpectedly and you get Teix at #5, then get to pick earlier in the 2nd round than the top 4 teams. That, to me, is a huge advantage as it might mean the difference between grabbing an ace such as Peavy or another great hitter.
I always want to be as close to first as possible in any draft regardless of the sport or fomat.
When I go into a draft I want to accomplish two things:
1) get the best team so this is consistent with wanting the first pick.
2) Remain ahead of the draft trends and force them upon the competition.
In my view the first major move (aside from the first pick) occurs once the top pitcher is selected. This year that will be Santana. The second occurs once the top base stealer is selected (likely Crawford). Frankly, I'd rather not select either in the first round but they both project as likely first-rounders. Thus, as the talent level of first round selections declines, you are forced to cross-rate the top power or five tool hitters against these players. I wouldn't break my rule of selecting the best player available do if I can't justify selecting any of the available players over either Santana or Crawford, then I am drafting well by selecting them but not neccesary selecting my vision of an idea team. In the past, I've made those selections but my preference will always be to be as close to first pick as possible.
I like being in the middle 5 or 6. This way you can really get some bargains in the later rounds. You arent forced to take people out of position (knowing you wont be able to wait for a certain guy to make his way back) as you do with the ends.
First of all, drafts aren't won in the first 2 rounds. Every pick is as important as another.
I'm with the minority here as I feel drafting in the middle gives you the most control.
With regards to runs, the worst thing that could happen is missing a run. If you are on a bookend, a run can start and end before you even get a pick. The second worst thing that could haoppen is starting a run, as you are overpaying.
Being in the middle gives you the best chance to finish runs and that's where champions are made.
For this year, I feel like there is the top 4 (A-Rod, Pujols, Vladdy, Tex) who are in their own teir - really the top 2 are as well but thats not as big a deal - then, #5-11 or so is where I feel like it really drops off. You could make an argument for a number of guys with every pick 5-10, and end up getting the same value. With that said, if you got the 11th pick of a 12 teamer, you could start your team with 2 solid late first type of guys (Bay?) and grab a stud SP on the way back in the 3rd. I'd say that the ends are the place to be this year - prefferably 1-2 (because after pujols and a-rod there is a drop) or 10-12...
baseball6791 wrote:For this year, I feel like there is the top 4 (A-Rod, Pujols, Vladdy, Tex) who are in their own teir - really the top 2 are as well but thats not as big a deal - then, #5-11 or so is where I feel like it really drops off. You could make an argument for a number of guys with every pick 5-10, and end up getting the same value. With that said, if you got the 11th pick of a 12 teamer, you could start your team with 2 solid late first type of guys (Bay?) and grab a stud SP on the way back in the 3rd. I'd say that the ends are the place to be this year - prefferably 1-2 (because after pujols and a-rod there is a drop) or 10-12...
I think it's foolish to put Teixiera in the same tier as A-Rod, Pujols and Vlad, simply because he doesn't have the record of consistency that they do. I would lump him into a second tier that includes Manny, Johan, D-Lee, Ortiz and Cabrera (with Crawford and Bay not far behind, and I like David Wright here, too... but might be able to snatch him in the second). To me, they are all pretty close in value.
There might even be a drop between A-Rod/Pujols and Vlad as you indicated, but I would be happy to get Vlad, especialy if he falls past the top three picks. I would love to see Vladdy fall to, like, 6 or 7 and have a possibility to get get Wright in round two. I couldn't envision a better 1-2 pickup than that.