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Combined projections

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Combined projections

Postby glcmustliveon » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:14 pm

Hi, I was wondering if any of you try to combine multiple projections and take the average for each player when using them for your analysis. If not, what projection site do you like
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Postby wrestlecd4 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:33 pm

Personally I go to about 5 mock drafts and average out the draft position. After that I decide if I want to move a particular player up or down my draft board. That is how I do it.
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Postby dannahann » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:39 pm

I've been using combined projection averages for the past several seasons. I prefer the results the compilation yields over any one particular source.
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Re: Combined projections

Postby WittyC » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:39 pm

glcmustliveon wrote:Hi, I was wondering if any of you try to combine multiple projections and take the average for each player when using them for your analysis. If not, what projection site do you like


I don't know if anyone ever averages actual stat projections, but ironman put together a very nice average rankings site from at least 8 (last I checked) sources...

http://ironheadsports.tripod.com/fbrankings.html
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Postby olympia0731 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:50 pm

Here i what i do. I follow the strategy of an article that waspos ted on the baseball notebook. Here is the jist of it: First make your draft list. Don't worry if some players jump up your draft list, compared to others. Next average yahoo, cbs, mockdraftcentral, and sportingnews average draft position. Next go through the each round of the average draft position and cross off all of the layers taken in the first round of the average draft position and your draft list. Put starts next to the players who are in a earlier round then the average draft position. These are your target players. The players who have the most stars next to their name are your TRAGET PLAYERS.

example: On my draft list Ryan howard is listed as the 10th best player. But I will not by any means draft him way before I have to.
Lets say that his adp is 62. This means that in a twelve team leaque he is selected in the fith round. Now in order to draft him I make sure that i draft him in the fourth round or the early fith, if I am fealing lucky. Using htis strategy you ensure that you have maximised value and that is the ultimate goal during ones draft.
Also this helps choosing bewtween two similar players: You would simply chose the player that would not be available next round.

I hope this is what you were looking for: And good luck this upcoming season.

Adizel
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Postby klvrdude » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:57 pm

dannahann wrote:I've been using combined projection averages for the past several seasons. I prefer the results the compilation yields over any one particular source.


ditto ;-D
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Postby glcmustliveon » Tue Feb 14, 2006 9:07 pm

Two things, how do you combine the projections given that each has a different number and type of stats, second, Is baseball prospectus worth the money in the middle of the year? or just for the projections
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Postby dannahann » Tue Feb 14, 2006 9:17 pm

glcmustliveon wrote:Two things, how do you combine the projections given that each has a different number and type of stats, second, Is baseball prospectus worth the money in the middle of the year? or just for the projections

I'm confused? By combining several projections I mean I average the results for each player in each stat category.
Simple example: Say 3 different sources project Lidge to notch 38, 37, and 40 saves, respectively. Lidge's 'combined' saves on my sheet would read 38.33 SV...the average of all 3 sources. That's not what you are referring too?
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Postby rjforlife » Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:25 pm

dannahann wrote:
glcmustliveon wrote:Two things, how do you combine the projections given that each has a different number and type of stats, second, Is baseball prospectus worth the money in the middle of the year? or just for the projections

I'm confused? By combining several projections I mean I average the results for each player in each stat category.
Simple example: Say 3 different sources project Lidge to notch 38, 37, and 40 saves, respectively. Lidge's 'combined' saves on my sheet would read 38.33 SV...the average of all 3 sources. That's not what you are referring too?


thats what i do too, and if thats not what hes asking, he should be. this is the way to go. also, i dont like to leave it at 38.33, but ill allow my own opinions to round it. i.e. in lidges case i would give him 39 saves, even though the math says either leave it at 38.33 or natural rounding down to 38....that way you can say you had something to do with the projections.
Goldy is King.
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Postby Thursday » Tue Feb 14, 2006 11:15 pm

I asked this same question a week ago, and got a lukewarm response. Now people are offering insight i've never even heard of before.

AAAANNNNYwayyy.......

I combine projections and average draft positions from 5 or 6 different sources, and i've kept track of all on an excel file. I've targeted only certain positions and dudes thanks to the fact that i'm in a keeper league. I throw out certain results.

For instance:

Jeremy Bonderman this year has draft positions of:
175, 197, 182, 179, and 96: This gives him an ADP of 165.8. But i threw out the 96, since it's obviously a huge outlier. This now changes his ADP to 183. Pretty big difference.

Beautiful part about excel is that when i calculate the formulas, all i have to do to "throw out" a result is type an "X". It's then POOF! gone from the average draft position formula.

It's a good idea, that way you know where to expect certain dudes to go.
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