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Ryan Howard's Pecota 90th percentile

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Postby Bing Hampton » Wed Feb 15, 2006 7:50 am

there are still 11 1bmen I take before him for obvious reasons.
Tex
Ortiz
Hafner (50/50 eligible before the break)
Dlee
Konerko
Sexson
Berkman
Dunn
Delgado
Helton
oh, and Pujols

At least 4 more who have the identical up and downside to Howard
Giambi
Fielder
Morneau
Thome

And a few who could actually be great value picks
Wilkerson
Tracy
Shelton
Sweeney
Gibbons
Huff
Johnson
Johnson.

Not to mention that Jeff kent and Chase Utley also have 1B eligibility.

You are very likely shooting yourself in the foot if you take Ryan Howard anywhere near the 5th round. First Base is outrageously deep this year.
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:47 am

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.


And Jeff Francoeur hit .300. I thought we had learned this lesson with Morneau. Obviously not.

You guys can take your gamble in the 5th while I pick up the guy he replaced........
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Postby Ender » Wed Feb 15, 2006 9:27 am

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.



Yes but he did it with a 37% hit rate which I doubt he can maintain. He did it with a 67% contact rate which is terrible and with a 0.33 eye rating which is terrible. His secondary stats are worse than Dunn's usually are.

As for the Utley comment in another post, lefties did catch up to Utley. He hit .220 against them and if average slides to a more normal .290 range against righties, the fact he doesn't hit lefties very well is going to hurt his stats. People are way too high on Utley and Howard, they are both going too high in drafts for my tastes which are generally risk averse.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 15, 2006 10:52 am

rotterdam_82 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.


And Jeff Francoeur hit .300. I thought we had learned this lesson with Morneau. Obviously not.

You guys can take your gamble in the 5th while I pick up the guy he replaced........


You can throw out comparisons all you want. Howard to Morneau, Francoeur, Dunn, Branyan... Did I miss anyone?

The fact is, Howard has improved when moved up to every level and he proved in 05 that he belongs.

For the record, I was not as high on Morneau as everyone else was around here. But he did have a number of healthy issues in 05 to his credit but apparenltly that really doesn't matter to you when you evaluate players.
Last edited by Yoda on Wed Feb 15, 2006 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 15, 2006 10:56 am

Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.



Yes but he did it with a 37% hit rate which I doubt he can maintain. He did it with a 67% contact rate which is terrible and with a 0.33 eye rating which is terrible. His secondary stats are worse than Dunn's usually are.

As for the Utley comment in another post, lefties did catch up to Utley. He hit .220 against them and if average slides to a more normal .290 range against righties, the fact he doesn't hit lefties very well is going to hurt his stats. People are way too high on Utley and Howard, they are both going too high in drafts for my tastes which are generally risk averse.


Can you guys give it a rest? IT WASN'T EVEN HIS FIRST FULL SEASON. The guy is only 26 going into 06 and you guys are making it sound like he is past his prime or something.

No one is saying he will hit for a high AVG. And if you expect him to do so, then you will be burned. Also, he is most definitely not a top 5 or 6 pick. There are better options at CI but people who think he will drop off like Branyan are just kidding yourselves. I'd be very happy to take him as my second 1B.
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Postby one ton » Wed Feb 15, 2006 11:03 am

True, Utley needs to continue mashing righties, but we can also expect his numbers to improve against lefties, at least slightly, as they did from '04 to '05.

Perhaps David Ortiz is a better example, as someone else mentioned. Here's his BA against lefties:

'02: .203
'03: .216
'04: .250
'05: .302 (better than he hit righties- .298)

Is Howard going to progress like Big Papi? Maybe not, but it won't surprise me at all if next year we're talking about whether he should be drafted in Rd 2.

That said, I also agree that considering the depth of 1B this year, it's going to be pretty easy to get good production there....
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Postby Ender » Wed Feb 15, 2006 1:09 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.



Yes but he did it with a 37% hit rate which I doubt he can maintain. He did it with a 67% contact rate which is terrible and with a 0.33 eye rating which is terrible. His secondary stats are worse than Dunn's usually are.

As for the Utley comment in another post, lefties did catch up to Utley. He hit .220 against them and if average slides to a more normal .290 range against righties, the fact he doesn't hit lefties very well is going to hurt his stats. People are way too high on Utley and Howard, they are both going too high in drafts for my tastes which are generally risk averse.


Can you guys give it a rest? IT WASN'T EVEN HIS FIRST FULL SEASON. The guy is only 26 going into 06 and you guys are making it sound like he is past his prime or something.

No one is saying he will hit for a high AVG. And if you expect him to do so, then you will be burned. Also, he is most definitely not a top 5 or 6 pick. There are better options at CI but people who think he will drop off like Branyan are just kidding yourselves. I'd be very happy to take him as my second 1B.


Shrug, I was just pointing out that he didn't hit a solid .280, you are the one that brought up average which is a pretty weak stat especially over such a small sample. The underlying skills are those of a .240-.260 hitter and thats the safe bet for his average this year.

I've seen Utley go at the end of the 1st round and I've seen Howard as high as the 5th round, I just think they are both being hyped up a tad bit too much this year. Taking Utley before the 3rd round is a pretty big risk with only a small reward and taking Howard before the 8th or so is way too big of a risk.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 15, 2006 1:25 pm

Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.



Yes but he did it with a 37% hit rate which I doubt he can maintain. He did it with a 67% contact rate which is terrible and with a 0.33 eye rating which is terrible. His secondary stats are worse than Dunn's usually are.

As for the Utley comment in another post, lefties did catch up to Utley. He hit .220 against them and if average slides to a more normal .290 range against righties, the fact he doesn't hit lefties very well is going to hurt his stats. People are way too high on Utley and Howard, they are both going too high in drafts for my tastes which are generally risk averse.


Can you guys give it a rest? IT WASN'T EVEN HIS FIRST FULL SEASON. The guy is only 26 going into 06 and you guys are making it sound like he is past his prime or something.

No one is saying he will hit for a high AVG. And if you expect him to do so, then you will be burned. Also, he is most definitely not a top 5 or 6 pick. There are better options at CI but people who think he will drop off like Branyan are just kidding yourselves. I'd be very happy to take him as my second 1B.


Shrug, I was just pointing out that he didn't hit a solid .280, you are the one that brought up average which is a pretty weak stat especially over such a small sample. The underlying skills are those of a .240-.260 hitter and thats the safe bet for his average this year.

I've seen Utley go at the end of the 1st round and I've seen Howard as high as the 5th round, I just think they are both being hyped up a tad bit too much this year. Taking Utley before the 3rd round is a pretty big risk with only a small reward and taking Howard before the 8th or so is way too big of a risk.


I was merely pointing out the fact that Howard has yet to hit below .280 at any level in his entire professional career incl his half season in MLB. So for you to say that he will hit .240 is jumping the gun a little bit. He is not the next Todd Helton or Ichiro. But he will be banging out HR and RBI with the best of them. That could be as soon as 06.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Wed Feb 15, 2006 2:00 pm

Nothing that Howard has done points to a .240 average...
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Postby J35J » Wed Feb 15, 2006 2:16 pm

I've got him 12th on my firstbasemens rankings.....

.275
36 hr
105 rbi
88 runs


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