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Ryan Howard's Pecota 90th percentile

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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:05 pm

mikegp wrote:
Yoda wrote:
mikegp wrote:
hybrid wrote:edit: Oops, thought you were talking about his last year in 2005.

Anyways there is more to it then just saying his HR's and OPS. The guy was 25 beating up on mostly guys who can't cut it in the majors and has always been old for his league in the minors. I agree he has power, but due to his bad plate dicsipline and that he hasn't shown he can hit lefties, I think he is being over hyped.


Agreed. He only had 61AB against lefties in 2005. Projected over a full season he will probably have roughly 140-150AB against lefties. A .148avg, .175OBP, .246SLG, .421OPS is not going to cut it. I realize it was his first full season in the majors, but that line is just horrible. Howard does have power, but he strikes out way too much to ever be close to a .300 hitter. He's a good prospect/player, but he is overhyped. Also, I agree with Hybrid on his age relative to the league. He's a lot more physically developed than most hitters in the minors which is why his stats seem so impressive.

EDIT: Just for fun Adam Dunn's last year in AAA at age 21 in 55 games post a line of .329/.441/.676/.1117

Adam Dunn's 5 year major league average:
.248/.383/.518/.901

Minor League BA,OBP,SLG, and OPS does not always transfer to the major league level


Isn't it kind of silly to say that he can't hit lefties based on one half season in MLB? While it is true that he will surely struggle against southpaws, does that mean he absolutely won't improve?

Comparing Adam Dunn with Howard is ridiculous. And everyone knows minor league numbers don't always translate to the MLB level. His half season in 2005 was very impressive and right in line with what he was doing in the minors.


I wasn't really comparing him with Adam Dunn, I was just pointing out that stats don't always translate from minors to majors. It's not silly to say he can't hit lefties based on one half a season because he did struggle. I don't think his average will be above .280 because his OBP and OPS just don't support that(but I could be wrong). He hardly walks and he strikes out a TON. Factor that in with his age and his chances of living up to all this hype really aren't that good.


His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:17 pm

I wasn't implying you said he would hit for average, just in general I keep seeing that people think he will hit for an even higher average. It's not about any type of special left handers that get him out, it's all left handers he has faced. He simply hasn't even been below average, 70 AB's and 31 ended in K's. Howard might improve, or he might just always suck against them.

I do agree he will most likely hit 30 or so HR's cause he does have power and plays in a great hitters park.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:27 pm

hybrid wrote:I wasn't implying you said he would hit for average, just in general I keep seeing that people think he will hit for an even higher average. It's not about any type of special left handers that get him out, it's all left handers he has faced. He simply hasn't even been below average, 70 AB's and 31 ended in K's. Howard might improve, or he might just always suck against them.

I do agree he will most likely hit 30 or so HR's cause he does have power and plays in a great hitters park.


Well, I have agreed with you all along that he likely won't hit for a good average especially in the beginning. But he's more than earned his spot and his power is very real. He should get 500 ABs and hit for plenty of power this year.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:56 pm

His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:45 pm

While .270s are a bit low to be 'good' for fantasy, MLB avg has been trending downwards as more guys are swinging for the fences so it's not really all that 'bad' in terms of doing his job. It just might not be the best for your team. I don't buy 61 HR but, given where he'll likely go in drafts, he's a decent prospect at 1B. You just have to get an extra AVG guy early on when you are 'punting' 1B I think...
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:11 pm

I see Howard hitting like .284 this year. He has tremendous talent and an amazing work ethic. I really see him being a stud for years to come.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:27 pm

Ender wrote:
His OBP and OPS don't support a .280 BA? He's posted .900+ OPS at every level in last two years. I'd like to hear your explanation:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... ward.shtml

Also, aside from his first go around in the bigs, he's hit .280 or above in his pro career.


Gotta be careful with minor league stats. His MLE stats in 2004 were a .246 avg and .831 OPS. Most of those stats were racked up in hitter's park and hitter's leagues and he was a lot older than the competition.


True... But he will still be hitting in a hitter's park, entrenched in a powerful lineup. Not to mention he's already hit .280 in 88G in 2005 at MLB.
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Postby Seanyfever » Tue Feb 14, 2006 8:43 pm

I have heard comparisons to a young David Ortiz more so than Dunn. Ortiz was troubled by lefties for a little while. He had done well since.
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Postby one ton » Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:11 am

Last year everyone was worried that Utley couldn't hit lefties, and that it would catch up to him over a full season. Now he's a second rounder.

Howard will struggle against lefties, but he's still a monster. Every projection I've seen has been very, very high on him. I am praying he makes it to me in the 6th, and will seriously consider him in 5...
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Wed Feb 15, 2006 5:43 am

If you can get him in the late 5th, you should be thankful....
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