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Ryan Howard's Pecota 90th percentile

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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:18 pm

mikegp wrote:
hybrid wrote:edit: Oops, thought you were talking about his last year in 2005.

Anyways there is more to it then just saying his HR's and OPS. The guy was 25 beating up on mostly guys who can't cut it in the majors and has always been old for his league in the minors. I agree he has power, but due to his bad plate dicsipline and that he hasn't shown he can hit lefties, I think he is being over hyped.


Agreed. He only had 61AB against lefties in 2005. Projected over a full season he will probably have roughly 140-150AB against lefties. A .148avg, .175OBP, .246SLG, .421OPS is not going to cut it. I realize it was his first full season in the majors, but that line is just horrible. Howard does have power, but he strikes out way too much to ever be close to a .300 hitter. He's a good prospect/player, but he is overhyped. Also, I agree with Hybrid on his age relative to the league. He's a lot more physically developed than most hitters in the minors which is why his stats seem so impressive.

EDIT: Just for fun Adam Dunn's last year in AAA at age 21 in 55 games post a line of .329/.441/.676/.1117

Adam Dunn's 5 year major league average:
.248/.383/.518/.901

Minor League BA,OBP,SLG, and OPS does not always transfer to the major league level


Isn't it kind of silly to say that he can't hit lefties based on one half season in MLB? While it is true that he will surely struggle against southpaws, does that mean he absolutely won't improve?

Comparing Adam Dunn with Howard is ridiculous. And everyone knows minor league numbers don't always translate to the MLB level. His half season in 2005 was very impressive and right in line with what he was doing in the minors.
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Postby Big Tiex » Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:27 pm

howard will become an top 10 mabey 5 1st base this year, y all the haters??? He dominated minors and was nothing short of a stud in his call up days. im thinkin 280 35+hr 120 rbi :-) mabey this is a little high but i like him a lot. Even though I like him i don't see me drafting him because there will always be someone I no drafting him way too high considering I live by philly.
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Postby mikegp » Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:36 pm

Yoda wrote:
mikegp wrote:
hybrid wrote:edit: Oops, thought you were talking about his last year in 2005.

Anyways there is more to it then just saying his HR's and OPS. The guy was 25 beating up on mostly guys who can't cut it in the majors and has always been old for his league in the minors. I agree he has power, but due to his bad plate dicsipline and that he hasn't shown he can hit lefties, I think he is being over hyped.


Agreed. He only had 61AB against lefties in 2005. Projected over a full season he will probably have roughly 140-150AB against lefties. A .148avg, .175OBP, .246SLG, .421OPS is not going to cut it. I realize it was his first full season in the majors, but that line is just horrible. Howard does have power, but he strikes out way too much to ever be close to a .300 hitter. He's a good prospect/player, but he is overhyped. Also, I agree with Hybrid on his age relative to the league. He's a lot more physically developed than most hitters in the minors which is why his stats seem so impressive.

EDIT: Just for fun Adam Dunn's last year in AAA at age 21 in 55 games post a line of .329/.441/.676/.1117

Adam Dunn's 5 year major league average:
.248/.383/.518/.901

Minor League BA,OBP,SLG, and OPS does not always transfer to the major league level


Isn't it kind of silly to say that he can't hit lefties based on one half season in MLB? While it is true that he will surely struggle against southpaws, does that mean he absolutely won't improve?

Comparing Adam Dunn with Howard is ridiculous. And everyone knows minor league numbers don't always translate to the MLB level. His half season in 2005 was very impressive and right in line with what he was doing in the minors.


I wasn't really comparing him with Adam Dunn, I was just pointing out that stats don't always translate from minors to majors. It's not silly to say he can't hit lefties based on one half a season because he did struggle. I don't think his average will be above .280 because his OBP and OPS just don't support that(but I could be wrong). He hardly walks and he strikes out a TON. Factor that in with his age and his chances of living up to all this hype really aren't that good.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:37 pm

Yoda wrote:Isn't it kind of silly to say that he can't hit lefties based on one half season in MLB? While it is true that he will surely struggle against southpaws, does that mean he absolutely won't improve?


Well it's also kind of silly predicting huge numbers based on half a year. Of course he can improve, but he has had 70 AB's at the age is 25 and showed nothing but complete ineptness. He can barely even make contact half of the time, it's hard to over look. Do people really think he will continue to have a BABIP of .360 year in and year out with that type of plate discipline?
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:33 pm

hybrid wrote:
Yoda wrote:Isn't it kind of silly to say that he can't hit lefties based on one half season in MLB? While it is true that he will surely struggle against southpaws, does that mean he absolutely won't improve?


Well it's also kind of silly predicting huge numbers based on half a year. Of course he can improve, but he has had 70 AB's at the age is 25 and showed nothing but complete ineptness. He can barely even make contact half of the time, it's hard to over look. Do people really think he will continue to have a BABIP of .360 year in and year out with that type of plate discipline?


Nowhere did I say Howard will hit for a high average. He does make contact though (over 50%) and his power is as real as it gets. He will hit in a very favorable park and I can't think of too many lefty pitchers in the NL that would give him a lot of trouble. He has great lineup support and he proved he belongs. What exactly is the problem?

Figure .260-280, 30-35, 90+ season. That is very conservative IMO.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:36 pm

While Howard was a good prospect in the minors he wasn't a great one. His big seasons didn't come until he was old for where he was playing.

I expect him to put up good numbers simply because that stadium is a left handed power hitters wet dream, but I'm not big on his actual skill set.
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Postby RAmst23 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:38 pm

Yea, you know who else has mammoth power? Russel Branyan. Not everyone who can destroy the ball is a worthwhile major league player.
Howard will have his HRs, but low avg for the guy.
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Postby WittyC » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:54 pm

Ender wrote:While Howard was a good prospect in the minors he wasn't a great one. His big seasons didn't come until he was old for where he was playing.

I expect him to put up good numbers simply because that stadium is a left handed power hitters wet dream, but I'm not big on his actual skill set.


He has hit for average at every level... I don't think that 70 career AB's against ML lefties is anything to panic over.

Also, it's not like he was a ton older than anyone at his level. He came up through a fairly normal progression for a college-drafted player. And he had "big seasons" everywhere he went.

I agree that there will be inflation due to the ballpark, but his skills would be welcome to almost any team in the majors right now.
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Postby perlick29 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:55 pm

This is one of the very few times I disagree with Hybrid. He is a righty masher and the .148 against lefties will likely come up this year since they will be working him on just that this spring, which is what I have been told by him and the hitting instructor personally since I inteviewed him a couple weeks ago at Phillies media day.

I'd lock him in for about 31 homers this season with a .280 avg. That's a starting point. He's more than capable of being Jim Thome in his prime.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:01 pm

RAmst23 wrote:Yea, you know who else has mammoth power? Russel Branyan. Not everyone who can destroy the ball is a worthwhile major league player.
Howard will have his HRs, but low avg for the guy.


You can't compare Howard to Branyan.
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