Ryan Howard's Pecota 90th percentile

[rotterdam_82]

Ir means that in comparing Howard to past players there is a 10% chance that he goes off this year. There is also a chance he hits 23hrs/236.

I'm sorry, the system has failed there. No way is there a 1 in 10 chance he reaches those numbers. 1 in a 100 I could believe it, not 1 in 10.

270/25/90......

[Cleveland Steamers]

I think I would put it more like 5% chance...many people are down on this guy at the cafe but it seems like everyone outside of the cafe (PECOTA, Bill James, etc) are very high on the guy this year. Im definitely high on him for 06 and the future. He has dominated about every level and is ready to hit 37+HR in 06.

[rotterdam_82]

He has dominated about every level and is ready to hit 37+HR in 06.

37 I could imagine, but a 5-10% chance of 61? That's ridiculous.

[mikegp]

I think a lot of people are going to be really disappointed when Howard "only" puts up 30 and 80 this year with a 265 BA.

Totally agree. People around here have Howard hyped up way too much.

EDIT: At least for 2006 anyways.

[eviljoshing]

I've found posted zips rankings but is there a place to get free Percota rankings? If so, could someone link it please?

[hybrid]

I've found posted zips rankings but is there a place to get free Percota rankings? If so, could someone link it please?

Nope, you have to have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus to view them. I haven't seen them posted for free anywhere.

[Yoda]

Too much hype? The guy hit 48 HR (82 XBH) in his 3rd pro season.

In 88 games with the Phillies in 2005 hit 22 HRs with a .923 OPS. Call it whatever you want but this kid can rake. Only 26 going into 2006, if he stays healthy and doesn't miss time, there is very little chance he hits under 30.

[hybrid]

edit: Oops, thought you were talking about his last year in 2005.

Anyways there is more to it then just saying his HR's and OPS. The guy was 25 beating up on mostly guys who can't cut it in the majors and has always been old for his league in the minors. I agree he has power, but due to his bad plate dicsipline and that he hasn't shown he can hit lefties, I think he is being over hyped.

[WittyC]

PECOTA projections or not, you can see what he's done in the minors, and I would stamp him with "Can't Miss." He's gone in the fifth or sixth rounds of most of the Cafe mocks, and I think he is a tremendous bargain at that position.

[mikegp]

edit: Oops, thought you were talking about his last year in 2005.

Anyways there is more to it then just saying his HR's and OPS. The guy was 25 beating up on mostly guys who can't cut it in the majors and has always been old for his league in the minors. I agree he has power, but due to his bad plate dicsipline and that he hasn't shown he can hit lefties, I think he is being over hyped.

Agreed. He only had 61AB against lefties in 2005. Projected over a full season he will probably have roughly 140-150AB against lefties. A .148avg, .175OBP, .246SLG, .421OPS is not going to cut it. I realize it was his first full season in the majors, but that line is just horrible. Howard does have power, but he strikes out way too much to ever be close to a .300 hitter. He's a good prospect/player, but he is overhyped. Also, I agree with Hybrid on his age relative to the league. He's a lot more physically developed than most hitters in the minors which is why his stats seem so impressive.

EDIT: Just for fun Adam Dunn's last year in AAA at age 21 in 55 games post a line of .329/.441/.676/.1117

Adam Dunn's 5 year major league average:
.248/.383/.518/.901

Minor League BA,OBP,SLG, and OPS does not always transfer to the major league level