What did you learn last year? My advice for this year... - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

What did you learn last year? My advice for this year...

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Halo Homers » Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:25 am

That is a nice set of rules, with the exception of #11. Perhaps the rule should be "When in doubt go with the NL pitcher" or "Late In The Draft, Pickup Only NL Pitchers" There are far too many good AL pitchers (Santana,Haren,Johnson,etc) to completely ignore one league.

Personally, my rule would be "Pickup dominant AL pitchers early in the draft, pickup marginal NL picthers late". My rationale is that dominant AL pitchers stay in a game longer, and keep piling up favorable stats and W's. I had Santana a couple of years ago, and I was very glad he was in the AL, as there were 7-8 situations over the course of the year where he stayed in longer because he was in the AL. I think the reverse is true towards the end of a draft. Then, I would pick up the marginal NL pitcher , who is more likely to be lifted when he still has a lead. I would also target favorable pitchers parks in the NL late, like San Diego, SF, NYM, LAD.
Halo Homers
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1321
(Past Year: 48)
Joined: 22 Oct 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:28 am

Players get hurt and that is the way it is. Edmonds is not a part-time player. If he is healthy he is going to be in the lineup. If you want to call him an injury risk, then fine, but he is neither a part-timer nor a platoon player.

Also, a lot of this list is simple basic strategy. Those who have played this game long enough know the wisdom of hitting over pitching in the early rounds and avoiding any undue injury risk or underperformance risk in the early rounds.

If you want to add something learned from last year how about these:

1. Closers really are impossible to predict. There was roughly a 50% turnover rate from the start of the season in the closing jobs throughout MLB.

2. SP at the top end has thinned out and in the middle has widened. Lots of mid-tier guys. Not many Santana or even Oswalt types around these days.

3. Roids took its toll on many a fantasy player last season. We saw complete busts from Sosa and Boone, Beltre and Thome (maybe?), Palmeiro, Bonds, etc. And there are a number of others who one suspects was a juicer but you just are not 100% sure (Helton and Prior for instance).

4. Pitchers going to the NL from the AL are supposed to improve, unless of course they get hurt or their name is Mark Mulder.

5. Washington is an extreme pitcher's park and even a mediocre SP can do well there.

6. The thin air of Coors means nothing if a bunch of AA players are in the lineup.
Last edited by TheYanks04 on Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
TheYanks04
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero


Posts: 9531
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby WittyC » Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:30 am

edit: i'm retarded.
WittyC
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1096
Joined: 3 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Dillon, CO

Re: What did you learn last year? My advice for this year...

Postby Iconoclastic » Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:38 am

Steve-o wrote:7.) Avoid hitters switching leagues – dramatic decrease in OPS


On this very topic, I have Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez from last year in a keeper league. If they both stayed in the same leagues I would go with the younger and higher upside Hernandez but I sorta agree with Rule 7 so I don't know if I should keep Bengie instead. This is a tough call here. Releasing them both and going after a catcher in the draft is another possibility although I don't have many other good keepers on that team so it's still up in the air:

Molina or Hernandez for 2006?
[b]Bold Predictions:[/b]

Grady Sizemore will have more value than Jason Bay regardless of draft position

Aramis Ramirez in 155 G will hit over .300 40 HR 110 RBIs

Brian McCann will have more value than Jorge Posada regardless of draft position
Iconoclastic
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 795
Joined: 5 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: What did you learn last year? My advice for this year...

Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 1:40 am

Iconoclastic wrote:
Steve-o wrote:7.) Avoid hitters switching leagues – dramatic decrease in OPS


On this very topic, I have Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez from last year in a keeper league. If they both stayed in the same leagues I would go with the younger and higher upside Hernandez but I sorta agree with Rule 7 so I don't know if I should keep Bengie instead. This is a tough call here. Releasing them both and going after a catcher in the draft is another possibility although I don't have many other good keepers on that team so it's still up in the air:

Molina or Hernandez for 2006?


RH... He was with the A's previously so adjusting to new pitchers and parks should not be a major factor. He is also the better player imo.
TheYanks04
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero


Posts: 9531
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:54 am

TheYanks04 wrote:6. The thin air of Coors means nothing if a bunch of AA players are in the lineup.


Rockies were 4th in runs scored at home out of 30.

Helton, Holliday, Atkins were 1-2-3 in NL home BA.

Steve-o, where are you coming up with a huge ops decrease switching leagues? Everything i have seen, shows a possible early struggle, but over a year nothing significant.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Steve-o » Tue Feb 14, 2006 9:38 am

HOOTIE wrote:Steve-o, where are you coming up with a huge ops decrease switching leagues? Everything i have seen, shows a possible early struggle, but over a year nothing significant.


I remember reading it somewhere last year. I will see if I can find the article. That diary entry was also from early on in the year, so it is entirely possible that you are right and that it evens out over teh course of the year.
Steve-o
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1879
Joined: 7 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Finally back home. A sweet 15 mi from Miller Park.

Re: What did you learn last year? My advice for this year...

Postby jayman » Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:42 am

Steve-o wrote:L
13.) SP is overrated. Not in the first 5+ rounds.


Would you say this holds true for Johan?
jayman
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1151
Joined: 6 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: In the holosuite playing the Vulcans!

Postby djacks » Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:54 am

Prior was on steroids?... :-?

Has it gotten to the point now where every player that has a down year or has some sort of injury MUST HAVE BEEN on steriods...?!?

Give me a break with the witch hunt...
"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."-Ayn Rand
djacks
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1262
Joined: 30 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Office

Postby tlef316 » Tue Feb 14, 2006 11:00 am

I learned that if your hitters are banged up come playoff time, you are dead, regardless of how good your pitching is. Sometimes bad luck happens and there is nothing you can do about it
welcome home andy
tlef316
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1735
Joined: 3 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: central jersey

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Sunday, Oct. 26
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact