I used a series formulas to figure players average point projections using Rotochamps, Rototimes, and Rotowire. I sorted by position and figured avg points for the top 11 at each position (44 for OF), then subtracted avg point from projected points for each player giving me the player's "Value".
For pitchers it was a little more complex. For SP, I took the top 55 based on projected points. I figured out the points per inning for each of those pitchers. I then figured the avg ppi for those 55 and subtracted that from each players projected ppi. I then multiplied the result by each pitcher's projected innings to come up with "Value". For RP, I used the same technique with the top 33.
I then put the results of the top 11 by position (44 OF) , 55 SP, and 33 RP into a spreadsheet and sorted by "Value". Based on the following scoring system:
1. Pujols Albert 1B 51. Berkman Lance OF
2. Santana Johan SP 52. Lee Carlos OF
3. Rodriguez Alex 3B 53. Rollins Jimmy SS
4. Martinez Pedro SP 54. Damon Johnny OF
5. Guerrero Vladimir OF 55. Clemens Roger SP
6. Bay Jason OF 56. Cordero Francisco RP
7. Peavy Jake SP 57. Liriano Francisco SP
8. Abreu Bob OF 58. Kendall Jason C
9. Prior Mark SP 59. Hafner Travis Util
10. Martinez Victor C 60. Ramirez Aramis 3B
11. Crawford Carl OF 61. Schilling Curt SP
12. Nathan Joe RP 62. Street Huston RP
13. Ramirez Manny OF 63. Myers Brett SP
14. Bonds Barry OF 64. Gonzalez Mike RP
15. Teixeira Mark 1B 65. Kent Jeff 2B
16. Carpenter Chris SP 66. Benitez Armando RP
17. Hernandez Felix SP 67. Patterson John SP
18. Oswalt Roy SP 68. Wells Vernon OF
19. Utley Chase 2B 69. Chavez Eric 3B
20. Rodriguez F. RP 70. Guardado Eddie RP
21. Rivera Mariano RP 71. Cordero Chad RP
22. Johnson Randy SP 72. Smoltz John SP
23. Sheffield Gary OF 73. Johjima Kenji C
24. Gagne Eric RP 74. Jeter Derek SS
25. Young Michael SS 75. Dunn Adam OF
26. Tejada Miguel SS 76. Wickman Bob RP
27. Lidge Brad RP 77. Lackey John SP
28. Sheets Ben SP 78. Beckett Josh SP
29. Wright David 3B 79. Pettitte Andy SP
30. Harden Rich SP 80. Wood Kerry SP
31. Halladay Roy SP 81. Giles Marcus 2B
32. Wagner Billy RP 82. Sizemore Grady OF
33. Giles Brian OF 83. Soriano Alfonso 2B
34. Matsui Hideki OF 84. Jones Andruw OF
35. Suzuki Ichiro OF 85. Burnett A.J. SP
36. Helton Todd 1B 86. Haren Dan SP
37. Turnbow Derrick RP 87. Gordon Tom RP
38. Cabrera Miguel OF 88. Capellan Jose SP
39. Ortiz David 1B 89. Reyes Jose SS
40. Valverde Jose RP 90. Furcal Rafael SS
41. Hoffman Trevor RP 91. Lee Cliff SP
42. Schmidt Jason SP 92. Lowry Noah SP
43. Lee Derrek 1B 93. Duke Zach SP
44. Beltran Carlos OF 94. Benoit Joaquin SP
45. Figgins Chone 2B 95. Ray Chris RP
46. Ryan B.J. RP 96. Dempster Ryan RP
47. Zambrano Carlos SP 97. Ensberg Morgan 3B
48. Isringhausen J RP 98. Reyes Anthony SP
49. Mauer Joe C 99. Vazquez Javier SP
50. Pierre Juan OF 100. Young Chris SP
No way are C's that valuable in points. The only C to make a top 100 list in points is Martinez. You HAD to weight their position to get that many C's in the top 100.
bigjimblue wrote:No way are C's that valuable in points. The only C to make a top 100 list in points is Martinez. You HAD to weight their position to get that many C's in the top 100.
Nope. The only weighting used was comparing him to the top 11 at his position.
rotterdam_82 wrote:David Ortiz at 39? He was 5th top scorer in my points league last year using a similar system to yours.
Doesn't seem right to me.....
I was a little surprised by this too. But my method was totally subjective based on the projections from the three sources listed.
Tis odd. I can't imagine a world where he carries less value than Derrick Turnbow.
Nice work though, a real eye opener. Good to see Brian Giles so high, in any OBP or K/BB league the man is a stud.
Overall, he is projected as the 6th highest points for offensive players. The thing that hurts his value here, is tyhe 5 of the top 8 are 1B. Pujols, Teixeira, Helton, Ortiz, and Lee. This brings the avg, 1B points UP, thus lowering his "Value". Maybe I should come up with a tweak and call it the Pujols factor.
rotterdam_82 wrote:Ahhhh, I see what you've done now. So it's not realy a top 100, more of a position scarcity thing. Extreme, but still interesting.
Exactly. I will tell you though, that I used this system last year in my league and won, when most of my leaguemates gave me no shot to take down the two-time defending champion.
I love the concept of this post and I think it could be extremely valuable but some of the numbers must be off somewhere. Two of the people that I was really surprised with were Liriano at 57 and Capellan at 88. Those both seem to be way too high to me. I do really appreciate all of the work you put into a pts based projection though. Thanks
Last edited by Music2004Man on Mon Feb 13, 2006 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.