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any of these pitchers worth owning?

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:08 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd say Marquis, Chen, Suppan, Santana, Verlander, Maholm, are on that border.


The rest would be a stretch at that level.


You say Washburns lack of K's, coupled with his DIPS era scare you. Yet you like Suppan, Chen, Marquis?

Marquis had a worse DOM rate then Washburn, a lucky 27% hit rate %, and a worse DIPS era of 5.12.

Suppans DOM rate was only a hair better, with a lucky strand rate, and a worse DIPS era of 4.66.

Chen had a lucky 27% hit rate, and a worse DIPS era of 5.03.

I like Washburn from that group.


I don't disagree that all of them are on the high side ERA wise. Washburn, however, also had an extraordinarily high strand rate and low HR per FB rate. DIPS is a little misleading in this case, and I would expect Washburn to end up being the worst of the 4.

Chen and Marquis typically have much better K rates than Washburn.

Suppan and Marquis are on a 90 win team, while Washburn is on a 70 win team.

And while Chen, Marquis, and Suppan have had their ups and downs, Washburn is about to enter his 4th straight year with worsening K/BB.
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Postby Wozzyck » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:08 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:Career to date he's pitched 74 innings at Safeco with just 4 HR's hit off him. That equates to just 1 HR in every 18.5 innings pitched.

Compare that to 80 Hr's in 538 innings of work at Angel Stadium (1 in every 6.75 innings) and it's obvious the change in ballpark is significant.

This sort of analysis really doesn't hold all that much weight, as it really only provides some proof that Washburn is much better at limiting HR to Seattle Mariners at Safeco than he is at limiting HR to a (basically) neutral opponent at Angel Stadium, which probably isn't quite the impact you were hoping for. This doesn't really help a case for Washburn.

As it fits the discussion, Safeco does, generally, decrease HRs; according to Baseball Think Factory, it's to the tune of a 0.94 park factor.

But, Angel Stadium also decreases HRs....to the tune of a a 0.94 park factor.
Last edited by Wozzyck on Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:12 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
:-? 2005 ERA of 3.20 which was fourth best (easily) in the AL. You're not making much sense.


No, citing that ERA is what makes no sense. It's totally built on things that had nothing to do with Washburn's performance, like the performance of the bullpen and a lucky hit rate.

New Zealand Fan wrote:Park effect differences overall may not be that great but Washburn is a big fly ball pitcher and there's little doubt he will be better suited pitching half his games at Safeco.

Career to date he's pitched 74 innings at Safeco with just 4 HR's hit off him. That equates to just 1 HR in every 18.5 innings pitched.

Compare that to 80 Hr's in 538 innings of work at Angel Stadium (1 in every 6.75 innings) and it's obvious the change in ballpark is significant.


Well, that sample size is just ridiculously small for making statements like that, not to mention the fact that all those IP in Safeco have been against the Mariners, an incredibly biased sample. So, there's no reason to attribute that difference to ballparks, given that a much broader range of data that is not a biased sample suggests there is no difference.

And Washburn has not been a flyball pitcher for two years. Take a look again as his stats for 2004 and 2005.
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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:16 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Suppan and Marquis are on a 90 win team, while Washburn is on a 70 win team.



This has little meaning. Using that analogy, Dontrelle Willis is on an 83 win team.
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Postby Wozzyck » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:25 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Suppan and Marquis are on a 90 win team, while Washburn is on a 70 win team.



This has little meaning. Using that analogy, Dontrelle Willis is on an 83 win team.


As it relates to those pitchers actually accumulating wins, it has quite a bit of significance. How is this not patently obvious?
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Wash

Postby glcmustliveon » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:34 pm

Being an Angel fan, I know Jared Washburn, And he is [/b]NOT A HUGE RISK, now, that being said He wont dazzle anyone, but their is very little chance he wont be a serviceable fantasy starter. Ervin Santana is a guy I would like to have in a keeper league, though he has an outside shot of impressing a lot of people this year, consistency will be the key to his development.
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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:35 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:No, citing that ERA is what makes no sense. It's totally built on things that had nothing to do with Washburn's performance, like the performance of the bullpen and a lucky hit rate.
.


You said his recent ERA's were bad. You're wrong, his most recent ERA was the 4th best in the AL last season, lucky or not and I'd hardly call 74 IP's a ridiculously small sample size and it's head in the sand stuff to do so. Sure, it's not large but it is a factor and significant enough for me to see Washburn as being the best value pitcher among those stated at the beginning of this thread.
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Postby Big Pimpin » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:38 pm

I think Wang and Santana might end up being decent. Also, I think Washburn will be decent (not Cy Young, but decent), and there are a few others on that list I'd consider. Rogers might be ok in that park. Marquis will have some good starts. And Moyer is a tough guy to overlook if you just hold onto him and start him at home (10-0, 2.95, 1.18 ain't bad for a guy who won't probably be drafted).
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Postby Wozzyck » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:43 pm

Here's an analysis of Washburn's 2005 season which expounds upon the flukiness of his ERA.

http://ussmariner.com/?p=3208
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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 11:43 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:And Moyer is a tough guy to overlook if you just hold onto him and start him at home (10-0, 2.95, 1.18 ain't bad for a guy who won't probably be drafted).


Yeah, left handed starters go pretty good at Safeco don't they ;-)
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