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any of these pitchers worth owning?

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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:15 pm

There's been talk of Eaton breaking out for years but the simple reality is that he never will.

He may have the stuff but he just hasn't got the mound presence and if he couldn't get the job done in Petco and the NL he certainly won't for Texas in the AL.

He's a terrible option.
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Postby brandnew » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:19 pm

I like Davies to be pretty decent this year.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:36 pm

None of those guys are in your top 80 starting pitchers? I have quite a few of them in my top 80, including Washburn, Wang, Chacin, Rogers and probably alot more that I have forgotten to name.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 12, 2006 6:08 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:I think Washburn is a huge risk. His peripheral numbers last year were not very good, so his ERA is very misleading. I'd be very surprised if his ERA was below 4.25, and he's not a big K guy. Add that to a 1.3 WHIP or so, and it's not too good.


You obviously haven't done your homework on Mr Washburn.

His away numbers have always been far better than his home numbers so the change to Seattle is a huge plus in his favour. He will also now pitch against the Angels who are a leftie stacked team and throughout his career he has had a great deal more success against left handed hitters than right.

Add to that the fact that his overall career numbers are better than any of those guys you mentioned ahead of him and that he has battled health problems the past two seasons.

By all accounts he is now 100% (the Mariners certainly think so) and although only a 5th starter, he is still the Top pitcher on that list.
He is an absolute must start against left handed dominated hitting teams.

No one else on that list is anything other than a spot starter.[/quote]

"pitching against the Angels" is pretty meaningless, since all he's doing is switching from pitching against the Mariners to pitching against the Angels, and I can't see how that works in his favor, given those two offenses.

His career numbers may be better, but the last three years he's been worse than the guys I listed. Before that is ancient history.

Guys with injury histories ALWAYS say they are 100%. Don't buy it.

Washburn's ERA will be over 4.25. His WHIP will be over 1.35. He'll have fewer than 100 Ks. And he might, if he's lucky, get 10 wins.
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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 6:38 pm

You're way off the mark with a 1.35 plus Whip. In 8 seasons pitching in Anaheim he's only ever done that once.

One of the guys major strengths during his career has been his control. Admittedly the last two seasons his control has not been great but he has had injury concerns. If he is 100% healthy and there's no reason to suggest he's not and with him moving to very much a pitchers park, common sense says his Whip improves.

And even if his overall numbers the last 3 years haven't been great his away record over this period is very good and that is the biggest indicator to improvement this year.

2003-04-05 combined away from Anaheim his ERA is 3.60, Whip is 1.20 and BAA is .249.

You call him a huge risk but in my eyes he is just the opposite.


Also, you need to edit your last post ;-)
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 12, 2006 9:01 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:You're way off the mark with a 1.35 plus Whip. In 8 seasons pitching in Anaheim he's only ever done that once.

One of the guys major strengths during his career has been his control. Admittedly the last two seasons his control has not been great but he has had injury concerns. If he is 100% healthy and there's no reason to suggest he's not and with him moving to very much a pitchers park, common sense says his Whip improves.

And even if his overall numbers the last 3 years haven't been great his away record over this period is very good and that is the biggest indicator to improvement this year.

2003-04-05 combined away from Anaheim his ERA is 3.60, Whip is 1.20 and BAA is .249.

You call him a huge risk but in my eyes he is just the opposite.


There's a big reason to suggest he won't be completely healthy. That's because he hasn't been completely healthy for more than two years. Guys that have an injury history like that tend to continue to lose time to injury, not suddenly become 100% healthy.

His away numbers are certainly intriguing, but I'd hesitate to build the whole case on that. Safeco is not that much more of a pitcher's park. Park factors for both Safeco and Anaheim are both 93 for runs from 2003-2005. So, it's not simply the park. It could be that Washburn pitches great on room service, and lousy on his wife's cooking, in which case, he'll bring that bad home performance with him to Seattle. Now, I know that may seem silly, but it's to make the point that we do not know the reason why the H/A splits are there, and unless we do we should not assume that they will go away. The one thing that might contribute is that Washburn has a much higher HR rate at home, but the HR park factors are the same for Anaheim and Safeco, so that would not seem to go away.

So, to me,he is a huge risk, in exactly the sense that risk means. There's a huge potential variation in his performance. On the one hand, he could be what you say, and have an ERA under 3.25. Or, he coul dbe what his DIPS and FIP ERA say and have an ERA at or close to 5.00.
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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 9:38 pm

I'm certainly not building my entire case on his away numbers but they are an important factor and it would be foolish to dismiss them.

Also I just can't see how this guy is a "huge risk" in relation to where he will likely be drafted in standard leagues (probably not at all in most) and in fact can be had so late that there can only be upside.

And although he has had injury concerns the last 2 seasons he's still only 31 and there's nothing to suggest he shouldn't be 100% healthy for the entire 2006.

I think you are overstating his injury history as he's averaged almost 30 starts a season for the past 5 seasons with never fewer than 25 starts. I'd say there would only be a handful of current MLB SP's that have exceeded that.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 12, 2006 9:44 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd say Marquis, Chen, Suppan, Santana, Verlander, Maholm, are on that border.


The rest would be a stretch at that level.


You say Washburns lack of K's, coupled with his DIPS era scare you. Yet you like Suppan, Chen, Marquis?

Marquis had a worse DOM rate then Washburn, a lucky 27% hit rate %, and a worse DIPS era of 5.12.

Suppans DOM rate was only a hair better, with a lucky strand rate, and a worse DIPS era of 4.66.

Chen had a lucky 27% hit rate, and a worse DIPS era of 5.03.

I like Washburn from that group.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 12, 2006 9:59 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:I'm certainly not building my entire case on his away numbers but they are an important factor and it would be foolish to dismiss them.

Also I just can't see how this guy is a "huge risk" in relation to where he will likely be drafted in standard leagues (probably not at all in most) and in fact can be had so late that there can only be upside.

And although he has had injury concerns the last 2 seasons he's still only 31 and there's nothing to suggest he shouldn't be 100% healthy for the entire 2006.

I think you are overstating his injury history as he's averaged almost 30 starts a season for the past 5 seasons with never fewer than 25 starts. I'd say there would only be a handful of current MLB SP's that have exceeded that.


Well, other than his home/road splits, what argues for Washburn? His recent ERAs have been bad; his whips have been bad; he's going from a 90 win team to a 70 win team.

And, I'm not dismissing them, I'm pointing out that you are leaping to the conclusion that those H/A splits will disappear, when that's not necessarily the case. Nothing suggests it is a park effect, and it could be caused by dozens of factors that will not change with the move.

And his more recent injury history is less positive than the 5 year stretch.

And, he's generally being ranked in cheat sheets around 65-85, which is pretty high for a ten win, low K pitcher.
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Postby NZF » Sun Feb 12, 2006 10:40 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:

Well, other than his home/road splits, what argues for Washburn? His recent ERAs have been bad


:-? 2005 ERA of 3.20 which was fourth best (easily) in the AL. You're not making much sense.

Park effect differences overall may not be that great but Washburn is a big fly ball pitcher and there's little doubt he will be better suited pitching half his games at Safeco.

Career to date he's pitched 74 innings at Safeco with just 4 HR's hit off him. That equates to just 1 HR in every 18.5 innings pitched.

Compare that to 80 Hr's in 538 innings of work at Angel Stadium (1 in every 6.75 innings) and it's obvious the change in ballpark is significant.
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