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Verlander

Postby willy-t » Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:24 am

So whats the deal with this guy, is he sorting out his control?

1) In my league we keep 12, and I got him at the end of the draft. What are the chances he makes a big enough impression to make me keep him, or give him trade value by the end of the season?

2) How good can he be, possible that he turns into a top of the rotation pitcher in the mould of a Prior or a Unit? Is his stuff good enough? What stats might you predict (albeit speculatively) for him in 5 or so years time?

Thanks guys, would appreciate the imput from some of you minor league experts since I'm from the UK and am not fortunate enough to see the prospects play.

;-D
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Postby booboo » Sat Feb 11, 2006 8:12 pm

If he occupies Detroit's #5 spot, I think he'll be just as good this year compared to Detroit's other starters. (Rogers, Bondy, Maroth, Robertson) He has a live arm with a plus, plus fastball and a plus curveball and showed good command of both last year. He needs a serviceable 3rd pitch (changeup). I think he's worth a late flier in the late, late rounds in mixed leagues. Because, there's no track record, you might catch lightning in a bottle.

The thing that worries me about him is his mechanics. His pitching motion is bloody awful and screams out shoulder/elbow surgery in the near future. He stands tall, even straight up, in his delivery and drives across his body (sideways) to generate power (as opposed to staying low and driving forward with his legs which is how most power pitchers throw). His violent delivery creates even more stress on his elbow as he releases the ball at a snapping 3/4 angle. Most starters throw over the top, and for good reason.

I liken his to Ryan Wagner's delivery. Wagner is a young reliever who was shut down last year with arm problems. Verlander, a starter. Detroit, in my opinion, doesn't exactly have a history of successfully grooming young pitchers. Pudge, who caught Verlander in 2 starts last year likened his stuff to Kyle Farnsworth and said Verlander should throw out of the pen given his delivery.

I think we'll see a above-average and serviceable rookie year out of Verlander if he gets 25-30 starts - 10 wins, 4.50 era, 140 k's?

As far as down the road (next year or two), those bloody mechancs and poor coaching are gonna catch up with his arm, and he's probably gonna need surgery, then he'll probably sit out a while and lose a few mph and command, and subsequently confidence, in his fastball, then it'll be another case of a young pitcher trying to battle back to what he was. Poor Verlander.
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Postby willy-t » Sun Feb 12, 2006 2:20 am

Thanks a lot for that response, I'll be wary of relying on his potential then. Surprised to read Ivan commenting on in such a way.

Nice to see your optomistic for his career. :-b
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Sun Feb 12, 2006 4:02 am

Interesting read. I had not heard this about Verlander before. Sounds more like Zumaya than Verlander. :D But I do remember reading something about the Tigers trying to tweak Verlander's mechanics to help prevent arm problems. Guess we'll have to see...
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Postby Jenkins » Sun Feb 12, 2006 3:39 pm

I always heard he had pretty good mechanics. He should have a great year. He used to be rated right under Felix as the top SP prospects. He still only 22.
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Feb 12, 2006 5:01 pm

Tigers tweaked with his delivery again to prevent injury...
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