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My first post, looking for advice

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My first post, looking for advice

Postby meggs » Fri Feb 10, 2006 4:06 pm

I blew up my team two years ago and have put myself into a pretty good position for the next few years. In addition to a nice keeper list, I've got three first round picks this year, including #'s 1 and 2. I'm pretty sure I'll go with Wood and Butler as my first two picks. (Though I'm willing to listen.) My third pick would be #7 in the draft order.

In our AL-only league you can only have three minor leaguers at any given time. I'm currently holding two -- Michael Aubrey and Erick Aybar. Aubrey, I'm going to waive.

My question is, do you guys think I'm better off hanging on to Aybar in my third spot and letting my third first round pick go or drop Aybar and pick among the following: (note that four of these guys will probably be gone by the time I'm picking again)

Gordon
Verlander
Kendrick
Zumaya
Maybin (I know he's going to rot for a couple years but I love the guy.)
Markakis (Though he might make the team in spring)
Kinsler (Ditto)

The other heavies are long gone -- Upton, Young, Barton, Liriano, etc. But if you've got someone else in mind than what I list above then I'd love to hear it too.

Thanks.
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Postby hybrid » Fri Feb 10, 2006 4:32 pm

Well it would be easier to give some advice if I knew what keepers you already had. Between Wood and Aybar you should defiantly get a good SS prospect regardless of which one. But if you already have someone young and good there it might be better to go in a different direction. Also if you needed a 3B, then Gordon would be a better option then say Butler.
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Postby meggs » Fri Feb 10, 2006 5:02 pm

I've got good keepers, but some have contracts up this year or next and will become free agents. I'm not so much worried about positional needs as I am 1) getting the highest upside then 2) Close to MLB ready then 3) Position. Apples to apples a SS prospect is more valuable than a 1B because of scarcity, but I'm not really thinking about that for this draft. I'm really just trying to compare keeping Aybar with what else might be available iat #7 in my ML draft.

But since you asked, my keeper list looks like this

Teixeira $12 06 contract
Figgins 10 07
Crosby 5 06
Shelton 8 07
Gomes 5 07
Ellis 5 07
Mench 8 06
Kazmir 8 06
Jenks 5 07
Wickman 5 06

Standard Roto rules w/$260 auction budget.
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Postby hybrid » Fri Feb 10, 2006 5:20 pm

Alright so since you mainly are considering upside and then how soon they are ML ready. I'd say with your 7th pick it should come down to keeping Aybar or going with Maybin (most likely to still be there). I'd be tempted to go with Maybin over Aybar cause of his potential upside. Also, not sure if I'm understanding your league correctly, but it seems like contracts aren't to long and you should be able to fill the SS gap another way.

On your first two picks, I would heavily consider Gordon over Wood. I know most every where you turn Wood has all the hype, but I'm not sold on him. Gordon will start at AA just like Wood and has far less in front of him before he makes the big leagues. There is also a good chance they will be playing the same position.
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I thought of that

Postby meggs » Fri Feb 10, 2006 5:58 pm

But there's something really scary to me about having the top two picks in the draft using them to pick two Royals. I mean, having two Angels in your farm system is one thing, but two Royals? Yeesh. (Yes, I know they're both huge prospects.)

My contracts don't seem to long beause I haven't extended any of the guys who are in their "option" year.

So why aren't you sold on Wood? Just to big a leap between the two seasons?
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Fri Feb 10, 2006 6:51 pm

Yeah, I understand what you mean about depending on the Royals. :D But it does seem like they are building toward a pretty respectable offense w/ the young guys they have coming up nowadays. It's not clear to me that their offense will be any worse than the Angels as both their youngsters develop. Also, since the Royals will soon have zero star veterans to block anybody, including their exact spots in the lineup, I'd think the fantasy value of someone like Gordon or Butler should gain a bit over someone like Wood -- probably more than enough to offset the possibly weaker overall lineup.
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Postby rhd » Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:01 pm

First of all, I would choose Wood and Gordon w the first 2 picks. But let me assume you'll still pick Butler over Wood. Probably, someone better than Aybar will be available when you pick #7. Using the 7 players you listed, I would say Gordon, Kendrick and Kinsler are the most desirable. Let's say they get picked before you get a chance. That's leaves you w Verlander, Markakis, Maybin and Zumaya. I have all these players rated near Aybar, although all of them are a little lower. My choice between these players is not entirely clear. But A. Marte should also be available, since he wasnt even in the league last year. Also, how about Brian Anderson and J. Kubel? I probably would take any of those players over Aybar, altho w Kubel it depends on how healthy he turns out to be. So, if these 3 are available, I'd drop Aybar. If only 1 is available, maybe not because one of the owners ahead of you might select the one available. Of course, maybe you value pitching prospects higher than I do. If so, you probably would prefer Verlander to Aybar if available.

But depending on who's available, what I'd do might depend on your rules. Do you lose Aybar if he gets traded to the NL? If so, I might be more inclined to drop him because w the logjam the Angels have at MI he might get traded. If you dont lose him, then I might be inclined to keep him because I think he will steal a lot of bases w some team soon, maybe even this year.

Also, do you have your regular draft before your rookie draft? If so, Kinsler and Anderson probably will be taken in the regular draft. Maybe Verlander too, tho I doubt it. If so, I might be more inclined to keep Aybar. BTW, I seriously doubt Markakis will get any significant playing time this year unless someone gets hurt. Even then, they have other players they can turn to, like Fiorentino or Majewski.
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