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Quick VORP question

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Quick VORP question

Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 10, 2006 6:52 am

in elijahs excellent post, his replacement pitcher gets a mere 50 K. it seems that he has included relievers in his calculations. i need to find a replacement value for starters only, especially for strikeouts. when i found the replacement player stats for my league, 9 teams and 6 starters per, my replacement player had these stats:


W-11.5
K-132
ERA-4.17
WHIP-1.29


but the only VORP calculation numbers I have are elijahs:

W-1.08
K- .02
ERA- .08 ((Replacement-Actual)x IP)
WHIP- .06 ((Replacement-Actual)x IP)

my question is, with those multipliers still work for my replacement pitcher or do i need new multipliers. the problem seems that with his .02 for strikeouts, my players are getting K's greatly devalued. maybe i am wrong on that, but that appears to be the case.


heres the link to elijahs great work:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... hp?t=92352

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Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 10, 2006 7:40 am

to further explain my problem, i have an example. according to his coefficient numbers, these two players would have equal value:


Player A: 16 WINS and 132 K
(16-11.5= 4.5 )* 1.08 (his coefficient for wins)= 4.86
(132-132=0) * .02 ( his coefficient for K)= 0

Total Value: 4.86

Player B: 12 WINS and 348 K

(12-11.5 = .5) * 1.08 =.54
(348-132 = 216) * .02 = 4.32

Total Value= 4.86
this is assuming era and whip are the same, these 2 players have the same value. call me crazy but player B is more valuable by miles. so where did i go wrong?
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Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 10, 2006 7:46 am

i know its quite early so ill keep adding to my own thread. it may just that his numbers are flawed no matter what. the example is in his own projections, where

C. Zambrano, ChC 14 181 0 3.03 1.29 $25
M. Prior, ChC 15 229 0 3.15 1.23 $25


how in the world can these 2 guys have the same dollar value?

Prior has 1 more win, 48 more K, .12 worse era, and a .06 better whip. they should definetly not be of equal dollar value with proper formulas, so if his are wrong, how can i change them to be correct/correspond with my league?
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Postby Cooner » Fri Feb 10, 2006 1:20 pm

you really should calculate your own coefficients- they'll change somewhat radically methinks.


It's fairly easy to do, especially since you've calculated your rep player.

Simply take every player that is initially ranked above the players you averaged to form your rep player. Subtract all their stats from the rep player, then add up all "overages" to form your "league total Ks (W,etc) over replacement player".

Now assign relative points (or dollar value) to your categories (Elijah talks about this a bit IIRC). Simply divide the points by the number of league total overages to find the "$$ per overage". This is your new coefficient.



As to the specific situation- player A is as valuable as B because he gets those extra wins, and wins over R.P. are more valueable than Ks over R.P. Those four wins are as valuable as the huge Ks. The 4 wins are, in a sense, a larger fraction of the entire league's wins over R.P. than the 216 Ks are over the entire league's Ks over R.P.

Two possibilities- either the R.P. Ks are too low (which shouldn't be the case if you've calculated your own R.P. values) or the relative dollar value for each category is off.

edit: Though 132, eyeballed, seems a bit low to me. How many people above and below the R.P. line did you average? Hopefully you're averaging at least 4 players, not just 2 or 1. Make sure they're not all low K guys- such as if the guys just below the players averaged have more Ks than the guys you averaged. This is particularlly a problem with steals (where one player, say Podsednik, can really screw up your R.P. steals if he's averaged in with your R.P.), but can also be a problem with Ks.

end edit


Assuming your R.P stats are good, you get into the "art" in the science of VORP- if you don't like it, play with the relative points above. For instance, I don't give as much value to wins- they're more finicky, and since there are fewer of them, they have more variance. So my relative dollar value for Ks is significantly larger than my relative dollar value for Ws.


Here's a short example- say I plan on spending $100 on pitching. $100*12 teams = $1200 total for pitching.

5 cats- how do I divide the money up per cat?

Maybe I want to do something like:

W = 200
K = 300
ERA = 200
WHIP = 300
SV = 200

I'm weighting Ks and WHIP higher because I think I can predict those best- they fluctuate the least from year to year.

Then I would add up all of my league's Wins over RP, Ks over RP, etc, and divide 200 by Ws, 300 by Ks, etc etc. This becomes my new coefficient.



Hope this helps...
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Postby Ragoczy » Fri Feb 10, 2006 1:28 pm

I set up my values pretty much the same way as Elijah so I think I can answer your questions. Some of this is going to be long, but I'm trying to spell it out as clearly as possible.

You need to calculate YOUR OWN coefficient. You can't use his because his matches his VORP value. Here is an example with 5 players using your VORP values-

Zambrano 14 wins, 181 IP, 3.03 era, 1.29 whip, 180 k
Prior 15 wins, 229 IP, 3.15 era, 1.23 whip, 200 k
Lieber 15 wins, 215 IP, 4.06 era, 1.27 whip, 136 k
Milton 12 wins, 198 IP, 4.45 era, 1.32 whip, 150 k
WWilliams 11 wins, 177 IP, 4.17 era, 1.33 whip, 115 k

Now, to get your coefficients, you do the following (I'm using wins as an example)-

Zambrano 14 - 11.5 = 2.5
Prior 15 - 11.5 = 3.5
Lieber 15 - 11.5 = 3.5
Milton 12 - 11.5 = .5
WW 11 - 11.5 = -.5
total wins = 9.5

IMPORTANT!- Only get the 'total wins' or 'total ks', etc, using the number of pitchers that will be kept. In your case, you have 54 starting pitchers being kept. Otherwise your coefficients (coming up next) will be incorrect!

Now to get the coefficient, divide the money allotted for wins (1/4 of your pitching money if you're using 4 categories) by those wins. Assume there is $100 to spend on the five pitchers and you have four categories, so you have $25 allotted to wins-

25/9.5 = $2.63 per VORP win (your coefficient), so we get the following-

CZ 2.5 * $2.63 = $6.58
MP 3.5 * $2.63 = $9.21
JL 3.5 * $2.63 = $9.21
EM 0.5 * $2.63 = $1.32
WW -0.5 * $2.63 = -$1.32
total spent on wins= $25.00

Now do the same for the other categories using the calculations given by Elijah. Excel is a great tool for this.

FYI- take pitchers 55-60 or so and calculate their values against the same coefficients--you may find that based on your league the 55th best pitcher (according to Rotoworld, Rototimes, whatever) is actually better than the 54th or 53rd BASED ON WHAT YOUR LEAGUE USES for stats.

Hope this was helpful! ;-D
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Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 10, 2006 6:55 pm

thanks to both of you fellas. really that was exactly what i thought, but i couldnt find anyone to spell out exactly how to make my own coefficients. the only follow up question i have is, how do i know how much money ill be spending on starting pitching total? in rg's example:


Now to get the coefficient, divide the money allotted for wins (1/4 of your pitching money if you're using 4 categories) by those wins. Assume there is $100 to spend on the five pitchers and you have four categories, so you have $25 allotted to wins-



you made up $100.....how do i come up with actual number for that?
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Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:41 pm

Final Flaw. Ok so I have my projections for all starters, have the total replacement value for all pitchers in each of the 4 categories, and I have the replacement player values. now what exactly do i do? here are the numbers:



Replacement Player (hereafter notated by RPL) :


12 Wins, 144 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP


Total Values:

Wins- Top 54 (758 W) - 54 RPL ( 648 W) = 110 W

K's- Top 54 (9183 K) - 54 RPL ( 7758 K) = 1425


ERA- 54 RPL (3.80 ERA......205.2 total) - Top 54 (3.65 ERA...197.05 total) .15 ERA or 8.15 total

WHIP- 54 RPL (1.33 WHIP......71.81 total) - Top 54 (1.17 WHIP........63.17 total) .14 WHIP or 8.64 Total



this is a nine team league where we would on average devote 40% to pitching.



where do i go from here? i did more or less what elijah layed out and what the other posters said here too, and the numbers i got did not pan out. please help me out i think i am close and really want to get this together.
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