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Chad Tracy

Postby RAmst23 » Thu Feb 09, 2006 12:54 pm

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... had-tracy/

This article seems to think that Tracy will improve on last year's stats.
Anyone think differently I this? I'd projected Tracy to regress, but with this info, I might shift my projections the other way.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
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Postby MrT » Thu Feb 09, 2006 6:32 pm

Barring injury, Tracey will be at 3b instead of moving around between of and 1b. Plus he is a yaer older and more mature and experienced. Everything I heard or read points to better numbers than last year. He easily could hit 30 and drive in 100.
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Postby Area51's » Thu Feb 09, 2006 6:36 pm

I like the kid: I know Forecaster had him regressing a little bit too.
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Postby statsman88 » Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:12 pm

I like the fact that he's not going to be platooning, which usually means big numbers. I look for .280 25 hr 115 rbi
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Postby stevethumb » Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:15 pm

i don't think he can sustain the power and BA...he's a nice hitter and still may be overloked but i see some regression fersure
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Postby hybrid » Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:32 pm

statsman88 wrote:I like the fact that he's not going to be platooning, which usually means big numbers. I look for .280 25 hr 115 rbi


8-o

Who exactly is he driving in?

I'm not a believer in his power yet. He has never shown any before until last year, so I think it will regress a bit down to 20 or under.
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Postby RynMan » Fri Feb 10, 2006 12:31 am

BP's Pecota has him at 21 HR for '06. I think I'll draft him expecting similar production. That article makes an excellent point though.

Does anyone know where they found the statistic on swinging at strikes out of the strike zone? Impressive....
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Postby Mills13 » Fri Feb 10, 2006 12:33 am

Chad Tracy seems to be this year's Chone Figgins meaning he's shown a lot of promise but this is the year for him to do something and I think he will.
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Postby Pedantic » Fri Feb 10, 2006 12:49 am

hybrid wrote:
statsman88 wrote:I like the fact that he's not going to be platooning, which usually means big numbers. I look for .280 25 hr 115 rbi


8-o

Who exactly is he driving in?

I'm not a believer in his power yet. He has never shown any before until last year, so I think it will regress a bit down to 20 or under.


I agree. The article says, "He actually makes excellent contact for a power hitter." The only problem with that statement is that he's not really a power hitter, at least not in my opinion. Like hybrid said, he hasn't really shown this kind of power at any level prior to 2005. I think his average will get better, but I would be pretty surprised with 20 or more home runs.
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Postby BigLebowski » Fri Feb 10, 2006 5:57 pm

He was very "lucky" to hit for power the way he did last year. While I think he "progresses" in his offensive talent, I think he won't get as lucky and his over-all stats will regress.

Last year

first half..8hr with 40% of his hits=flyballs(potential HR's)
second half..19hr with only 45% of hits=flyballs(potential HR's)

That is a increase in HR for only 5% more flyballs hit.

Something doesn't match up. Since he has never hit for that type of power, I am more inclined to think he will regress to around 20-22 HR for the season, not an increase.
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