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Anybody here bet on baseball?

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Postby RugbyD » Thu Feb 09, 2006 9:53 am

i haven't before, but this year i'm planning on keeping a record of hypothetical 2-team parlay bets an see how i would have fared. If doing well by the ASB I might just jump in then.
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Postby willy-t » Thu Feb 09, 2006 9:53 am

I bet extensively on a number of US Sports (I'm resident in the UK)

The things I would say about baseball in particular are that its best never to bet the run line, as some unpredictable occurances can happen when a team is just 1 run ahead, and it can be highly frustrating when they dont try to score again

Always look deeper into the game to find something that the odds on the game have not allowed for, this may include things such as when a rookie is playing an experiences veteran hitting lineup against a team of hackers. Even if the offences are equallt good the patient team will fare better, eg. I always back the rangers or yankees when facing an inexperienced starter.

Other good things to look for are things such as whether the lineup hits better against lefties or righties etc. Looks for money lines at hitters and pitchers parks etc.

Finally, like in all betting, its about value, not winners. So having 605winners out of 100 at 8/11 is making a big loss, far better to have 45 at 5/2.

Fantasy baseball knowledge can definately help you make money as long as you play it smart.
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Postby Patella Tendon » Thu Feb 09, 2006 10:40 am

I bet baseball parlays in Vegas. I pick out 2 or 3 games in each parlay based on pitching matchups. It makes no difference if they are favorites or not (except for the payoff).
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Postby Eagle Baseball » Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:11 am

imo the reason we are playing fantasy baseball vs betting on baseball is the time tested theory of "he who gambles lives in shambles".
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Postby pat1999 » Thu Feb 09, 2006 12:28 pm

Patella Tendon wrote:I bet baseball parlays in Vegas. I pick out 2 or 3 games in each parlay based on pitching matchups. It makes no difference if they are favorites or not (except for the payoff).



best way to bet on baseball..only way u can just pick the winners and get a decent pay out
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 09, 2006 12:29 pm

RugbyD wrote:i haven't before, but this year i'm planning on keeping a record of hypothetical 2-team parlay bets an see how i would have fared. If doing well by the ASB I might just jump in then.


Bookies love parlay bettors in general and parlay betting on baseball is not a good idea. The odds may increase but your chances of losing increase much more.
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Postby Gags Sports » Thu Feb 09, 2006 1:59 pm

I am of the opinion that you CAN NOT win on betting on sports over the long haul. That said, it hasn't stopped me from betting on sports.

For baseball, here are some guidelines I follow:

* Let's say my average bet was for $150. I make a rule that I will NEVER bet more than that amount on any favorite who is greater than a 2:1 favorite. You're just not getting good odds if you bet more than your average on a heavy favorite.

* Take a close look at home underdogs at decent size odds (+140 or more). I've made a lot of money on these games even if I don't like the home team to win.

* Sometimes it's a good idea to take an underdog getting suprisingly high odds. I'm not saying bet heavily on them, but a minimal bet on an underdog could turn into a good payday.

* Don't be afraid to take teams like KC, TB, Col and Pitt. They are usually very heavy underdogs, but they don't lose every single game. Beware of taking them on the road however. Colorado is a notoriously bad road team.

* (This one goes for all sports) NEVER bet against a hot team and NEVER bet on a cold team. Some people believe that wins and losses will even out over time. Or they say, "Oh the Yankees have won 6 games in a row, they can't win 7." This is a big mistake. I generally believe that if a team is on a 5 game winning or losing streak, I will never bet against the streak. They are hot or cold for a reason.

* Never bet more than 5 games in a day. The more games you bet in a day, the faster you will see yourself losing. As a general guideline, if I like 6 teams, I will take a close look and figure out who my 4 best bets of those are and go with those 4.

* Other people have posted that they like parlays, but let me tell you that you're playing right into a bookie/sportsbook's hands if you bet parlays. Anytime you have to win 2 games in order to win money, your odds on winning are plummeting. Stay away from parlays and play both of the teams straight. That way if you lose one of them, you've 'hedged your bet." Bookies won't tell you that though.


I might add more as I think of them.
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 09, 2006 2:10 pm

Very solid post ;-D
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Postby perlick29 » Thu Feb 09, 2006 2:39 pm

Gags Sports wrote:I am of the opinion that you CAN NOT win on betting on sports over the long haul. That said, it hasn't stopped me from betting on sports.

For baseball, here are some guidelines I follow:

* Let's say my average bet was for $150. I make a rule that I will NEVER bet more than that amount on any favorite who is greater than a 2:1 favorite. You're just not getting good odds if you bet more than your average on a heavy favorite.

* Take a close look at home underdogs at decent size odds (+140 or more). I've made a lot of money on these games even if I don't like the home team to win.

* Sometimes it's a good idea to take an underdog getting suprisingly high odds. I'm not saying bet heavily on them, but a minimal bet on an underdog could turn into a good payday.

* Don't be afraid to take teams like KC, TB, Col and Pitt. They are usually very heavy underdogs, but they don't lose every single game. Beware of taking them on the road however. Colorado is a notoriously bad road team.

* (This one goes for all sports) NEVER bet against a hot team and NEVER bet on a cold team. Some people believe that wins and losses will even out over time. Or they say, "Oh the Yankees have won 6 games in a row, they can't win 7." This is a big mistake. I generally believe that if a team is on a 5 game winning or losing streak, I will never bet against the streak. They are hot or cold for a reason.

* Never bet more than 5 games in a day. The more games you bet in a day, the faster you will see yourself losing. As a general guideline, if I like 6 teams, I will take a close look and figure out who my 4 best bets of those are and go with those 4.

* Other people have posted that they like parlays, but let me tell you that you're playing right into a bookie/sportsbook's hands if you bet parlays. Anytime you have to win 2 games in order to win money, your odds on winning are plummeting. Stay away from parlays and play both of the teams straight. That way if you lose one of them, you've 'hedged your bet." Bookies won't tell you that though.


I might add more as I think of them.


My question for you gags is how do I get involved with casinos or whatever bookies that you might use. I have been a good prognosticator of outcomes over the last 2 years including helping someone else make some good money by doing as you said, only picking the premium 3 or 4 games that we like. Now I would like to try a bit of it myself. Maybe a PM on how to do this or, if you feel comfortable a post here would be appreciated. ;-D
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Postby Nene » Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:12 pm

I'm afraid to gamble, because i get really addicted to it. I am a pretty good poker player, and i know when i lose i want to keep playing till i win again. It's (gambling) not a good thing for me.
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